The Edmonton Oilers visit the Dallas Stars Wednesday for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The opening puck drop from the American Airlines Center will be at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Oilers vs. Stars odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Dallas won 2 of 3 games

Edmonton took down the LA Kings 4-2 in the first round and the Vegas Golden Knights 4-1 in the second round. The Oilers, who went 48-29-5 (101 points) in the regular season, won all 3 road games in the series win over Vegas and overall have won 4 straight playoff games on road ice. In 11 playoff games, Edmonton has scored 3.91 goals per game (GPG) while allowing 3.09.

The Stars downed the Colorado Avalanche in a 7-game series in the first round and the Winnipeg Jets in 6 games in Round 2. Dallas, which in the regular season went 50-26-6 (106), lost its opening home playoff game April 19, but has won 6 straight at the American Airlines Center since. Across 13 playoff games, the Stars have averaged 2.62 GPG while yielding 2.92.

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Oilers at Stars odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Oilers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Stars -125 (bet $125 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Oilers +1.5 (-235) | Stars -1.5 (+190)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)Oilers at Stars projected goalies

Stuart Skinner (2025 playoffs: 2-3, 3.05 GAA, .884 SV%) vs. Jake Oettinger (8-5, 2.47 GAA, .919 SV%)

Skinner went 2-1 with a .944 SV% in the Vegas series. Running mate Calvin Pickard (6-0-0, 2.84 GAA, .888 SV%) missed Games 4 and 5 with an undisclosed injury. Skinner, who owns an .893 SV% across 40 career playoff games, stopped 47-of-47 pucks over those last 2 games of the series victory.

Oettinger had a .929 SV% as the Stars’ lone netminder of the Winnipeg series. He faced the Oilers 3 times in the regular season, clocking a .919 SV%. He filed a similar percentage (.920 SV%) in regular-season starts on home ice.

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Oilers at Stars picks and predictionsPrediction

Oilers 4, Stars 3

Prior to losing 2 of 3 to the Stars in the regular season (1-2-0), the Oilers had gone 7-4 across 11 previous games since December 2022. That included defeating Dallas 4-2 in last year’s Eastern Conference Final.

When it comes to 5-on-5 play at the offensive, the Oilers and Florida Panthers have been the standouts of these Stanley Cup Playoffs. When it comes to puck-possession and expected-goal analytics, the Oilers stand alone as the best offense. And no else has really been close.

Edmonton was held to 2 goals in Game 2 of their series against the Kings. In their Wednesday series-clincher against the Golden Knights, the Oilers won 1-0 in overtime. Across 8 games in between, they averaged a robust 4.38 GPG. Edmonton had its power play clicking in the first round, but not in the second. No matter in either case: the Oilers can fill it even-strength situations.

Dallas has cranked out a 30.8% success rate in playoff power-play opportunities. But Edmonton is not a club that gets sent to the penalty box too often.

Give the nod to the Oilers for the series at large. Edmonton has had a bit of an issue when playing on longer-than-normal rest, and they head into this one off 6 days’ rest. That and respecting the Stars at home sends this play into partial-unit territory, but EDMONTON (+105) is the value side here.

No interest: PASS.

The Over went 2-1 in the regular-season meetings between these clubs.

The Dallas 5-on-5 analytics would call for more goals in the Stars’ games: More at both ends of the ice. And the power-play abilities of both sides are worthy of respect. And in those above-reference long-layoff games for Edmonton, high-scoring return games have been the norm.

Look for the tag on the Over 6 to get more expensive. The OVER 6 (-115) is the strongest play of this series opener.

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