We know we are a bit late for a true halfway mark, and we already looked at the goaltending and defence. However, today we will present an update, based on our pre-season player point projections for the Ottawa Senators. We can look at this as more of an analysis of how the forwards have been playing. Let’s see if the players themselves are on track, or if we were totally out-to-lunch in our predictions. So, let’s get sensational.

A Recap of Our Pre-Season Ottawa Senators Player Point Projections

Offensively as a team, the Sens do remain (slightly) above average. They are 13th in goals-for-per-game with 3.22. Also, their power play is decent at 22.7% success rate, good for ninth in the league. The power play has been solid, and helped propel the Sens offensive game. For close followers of the Sens, this is no surprise. But what about the individual performances?

Okay, let’s start with the hard part of the conversation, where we were way off. The Senators have had up to three, lengthy and significant injuries to the forward group, specifically. However, whenever it comes to point projections, we do always assume near full health. We did try to emphasize this point in our pre-season guesses. As a general rule, in any season, you can expect 10-20 percent injury factorization. That is per player, as well as team, in some sense.

As a result, it is clear that Brady Tkachuk will miss his projected target. It was interesting that the sportbooks had his pre-season over/under at 64.5 total points. We had him at least hitting 70. Now, his scoring rate is one of the best of his career. 2022-23 was the only year he was over a point-per-game. This year he is right there as well, with 25 points in 26 games. But at this point, with the Sens having played 46 games, the most he can finish with is 62 games. So, that 64.5 is a very tight target, but nonetheless, still achievable. Our guess, having him top 70, is less likely at this point.

Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire

Another Sens Superstar, Tim Stutzle

Our pre-season point estimate for Stutzle had quite a bit of variability. Our final prediction interval landed us between 85 and 110 points. In contrast, if you really read into the details, you would see our actual distribution had a right-skewed shape to it. We had him around the 90-point mark, more directly.

One part of Stutzle’s season preventing him from hitting his ceiling has been inconsistent linemates. Moreover, he has appeared in all of Ottawa’s games. He isn’t too far removed from a 13-game point streak. His 21 points in that stretch, accounts for 45% of his points on the season. However, coming out of that streak, he kind of headed in the opposite direction. His goal in the 8-4 victory over the New York Rangers was his first goal in nine games. So, all-in-all, he is barely on pace for over a point-per-game. Unless he gets hot once again for an extended period, 90 points will be difficult to hit.

For Drake Batherson, one idea we pointed out in our pre-season article, was his notable consistency. Despite an influx of linemates and combinations, the last three years he would score between 22 and 28 goals and add 38 and 42 assists. At his current pace, he should surpass those levels, in both goals and assists. Of course, there had been signs that he was ready to pop-off, as you could say he has been doing this year. At 27 years old, he has really put it all together this season. It also helps that he is powered by a career-high shooting percentage.

One of type of player that can be extremely difficult to accurately predict their points is someone like Ridly Greig. But we tried our darndest.

He plays the type of game where he gets banged up, so even when he’s playing, he’s not at 100%. In addition, he has missed a few games this year, and is up to 41 games played. Also, for Greig personally, we picked a good day to write this one. He set a career mark of three assists in the Ranger game. That puts him at 19 points on the season. With 36 games remaining for Ottawa, we think our pre-season prediction, of between 33 and 43, is right on track. It is unlikely he can reach the upper-end of that interval still. However, his career high of 34 points from last year is in jeopardy, but it will be close.

Another player we looked at in the preseason was Shane Pinto. It may seem somewhat on the low-end, but coming in we had him between 44 and 54 points. Then, Pinto came into the season like he was shot out of a cannon. Building off the momentum of being including in the Team USA summer orientation camp, he had seven goals in his first six games. It was a great start, but even still, his total points didn’t match that goal-total excellence. He only did record his second assist of the year in his tenth game played. He also missed some time with injury. So far, he has 24 points in 36 games. Therefore, if he remains healthy and on that scoring rate, we can put him at 48, or right around the middle of our initial prediction interval.

Claude Giroux, G-Money if you will, is one player determined to show our predictions up. We discussed his role at length in his projection article, and thought he would be on the third line. That has turned out to be mostly true this season. Yet, he is focused on having a strong season, from a personal standpoint. We had him at around 45-55 points coming in. And well, he won’t end up with too many more than that, he is really trying for that upper-end. With 32 points on the year, and having not missed any time, it has been a successful season for the recently-turned 38-year-old.

One more player we did was Dylan Cozens. We had him in a bigger range, from 55 to 67 points. Cozens does play an important role for the Sens, and isn’t relied on as a top-end scorer. Still, his offensive contributions are a must, if this team is to be a Stanley Cup Playoff contender. Cozens is having a solid season with 34 points in 46 games. On the other hand, if he does stay healthy, and maintains that pace, he will actually fall below of our interval (say around 51).

Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.