By: Kim Smith Published 01/18/2026, 06:20 AM ET 
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Stars on Sunday, January 18, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 2:00 PM EST. The game will be broadcast on NHL Network, The Spot – MTN, and Victory+ Sports Network. Dallas is listed at -115 on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay checks in at -105. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over priced at -142 and the under at +120. On the puck line, Dallas -1.5 is +200, while Tampa Bay +1.5 sits at -245. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more in-depth matchup analysis and betting angles.
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Terms & Conditions Tampa Bay’s Road Consistency Stands Out
Tampa Bay enters this matchup with a 29-13-4 overall record and has been outstanding away from home at 17-4-4 on the road. The Lightning have gone 4-1 over their last five games, picking up wins over the Penguins (shootout), Flyers twice, and Avalanche, with their lone setback coming in a shootout loss to the Blues. Even in defeat, Tampa Bay has shown an ability to stay competitive in tight, playoff-style games.
Statistically, the Lightning continue to check all the right boxes. They are averaging 3.46 goals per game while allowing just 2.54, supported by 27.5 shots per game and only 26.3 shots against. Their special teams remain reliable, producing 31 power play goals at a 21.1% success rate while killing penalties at an impressive 83.9%. Add in three short-handed goals, and Tampa Bay remains a threat in every situation.
What separates Tampa Bay in this matchup is their defensive floor. Allowing only 2.54 goals per game while scoring at a high rate gives them margin for error, particularly on the road where they’ve consistently executed structured, disciplined hockey.
Dallas’ Special Teams Keep Them Dangerous
Dallas comes in at 27-12-9 overall with a strong 12-6-3 home record. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to the Mammoth, Ducks, and Sharks (in overtime), offset by wins over the Kings and Capitals. Even with some uneven results, Dallas remains a tough out at home thanks to their ability to capitalize when opportunities arise.
The Stars are averaging 3.31 goals per game while allowing 2.75, generating 25.3 shots per game and giving up 27.9 shots against. The defining feature of Dallas’ profile is an elite power play, as they’ve scored 40 power play goals and are converting at a massive 28.8% rate. Their penalty kill sits at 79.7%, making special teams the clear swing factor in this matchup.
Dallas’ advantage lies in that power play efficiency. If Tampa Bay gets sloppy with penalties, the Stars have the kind of unit that can change the game quickly, especially on home ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars PickMoneyline Pick Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -105
I’m backing Tampa Bay here because their road performance is simply too strong to ignore, and their defensive numbers are the cleanest in this matchup. Dallas can absolutely strike on the power play, but Tampa Bay’s ability to win close games and consistently limit opponents to 2.54 goals per game makes them the more trustworthy side at essentially a pick’em price.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Total Pick
The under offers value in this spot. Tampa Bay is likely to lean into a controlled road approach that limits scoring chances at even strength, while Dallas is a team that doesn’t rely on heavy shot volume to generate offense. With both teams allowing 2.75 goals per game or fewer and the under paying plus money, this sets up as a tight, methodical game rather than a wide-open track meet.
Final Score Prediction:
Lightning 3, Stars 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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