Welcome to a Saturday night Senators edition of NHL Predictions as the Carolina Hurricanes visit the Canadian capital city Ottawa. The Hurricanes come into this one atop the NHL’s Metropolitan Division standings. Meanwhile, Ottawa is trying their darndest to hit high gear. Find out if they can get push the clutch down, and well, let it go, sensationally, of course.

NHL Predictions Hurricanes and Senators

Season Series: This is their first of three meetings (February 3rd in Carolina, April 5th in Ottawa).

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch: CITY, SN1, FDSNSO 

Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario

The two teams are led offensively by Sebastian Aho for Carolina, and for Ottawa, a fellow Olympian, but with Team Germany, not Team Finland like Aho, Tim Stutzle. Aho has 52 points in 51 games this year, and skates 19:49 a night. Meanwhile, Stutzle is having a big year, personally. He has 51 points in 50 games, plays 20:41 of ice time a game, and sports a career-high faceoff percentage of 54.9. In addition, Stutzle has grown leaps and bounds, in terms of maturity.

The Statistical Breakdown

For this one, we want to get slightly analytic on you. It is what the Sens need, we feel. Carolina is actually very similar to Ottawa, except, they make it look good? At least they do in the standings.

Analytically, we know the Sens are good. So, let’s pull up some statistics that states this to be factual.

Corsi Percentage

1.) Carolina  60.3%
2.) Colorado  57.5%
5.)  Ottawa  53.2%

This is good from an Ottawa perspective. And well, really good from a Carolina perspective. This shows that the two teams are great at driving play. It tends to teams that have strong puck possession, as well as an edge in directing shots towards goal that have a strong chance of generating offence, versus preventing their opposition from doing the same. Moreover, all these things seem positive, but then, why does Ottawa struggle exactly?

There is the argument to be made that there is quite a gap in the numbers, despite both teams being in the top five. 60% is quite dominant, whereas 53% is controlling, but maybe not enough. Is there a way we can support this thought process? Thought you’d never ask.

Let’s look at another analytical statistic, as per our NHL Predictions. In terms of goals differential above expected, again the Canes and Sens are somewhat similar. Furthermore, this has more to do with offensive efficiency. Therefore, it is the perfect complement to our statistic from above. What good is driving play, if you aren’t converting on your opportunities. For Sen fans, this is known all-to-well.

1.) Colorado  +35.5
2.) Boston  +29.3
3.) Dallas  +21.1
24.) Ottawa  -13.1
27.) Carolina  -17.2

It is interesting, that the advantage Carolina has over Ottawa in Corsi, is offset by their respective efficiencies. However, Carolina finds themselves way in front of Ottawa in the Eastern Conference standings. Carolina seems to play with more speed, and head coach Rod Brind’Amour will accept nothing less. That explains the shot differentials for the two teams. Carolina has a good advantage here, at +8.2, compared to Ottawa’s (still impressive we might add) +3.1. Therefore, the advantage Ottawa thought they had in efficiency, isn’t so great because Carolina gets higher shot totals (and compared to their opposition).

The Specialty Teams
Ottawa

Power Play 23.5%
Penalty Kill 71.7%

Carolina

Power Play 21.2%
Penalty Kill 79.7%

If we take the sum of the special teams percentages, the goal is to be slightly above 100%. Carolina, check that box, 100.9%. Ottawa, whomp, whomp, 95.2%. That isn’t huge, but over a full season, it all adds up. A percentage differential of around 6.7% is noted. If we assume, very conservatively, even two power plays per game. Over the course of 82 games, 82 x 4 gives us 328. What’s 6.7% of 328 you ask? Got it, 22 goals. That is a 22-goal swing, just from the special teams. More shots and driving play, better special teams, is going to edge out the Sens efficiency advantage. The Sens came into 2025-26 with aspirations of a second-round NHL Stanley Cup Playoff game. They are supposed to be right there with these big guys, and right now, they aren’t.

The Defences

Okay, there is one other aspect we want to touch on. Let’s chat for a minute on the two teams’ defensive core. Carolina’s best defenceman, and 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics Team USA stalwart, Jaccob Slavin is only up to 11 games on the season. However, will we add, he has been around 23 minutes the last two games. That is the first time all season he has been up at that level. He is trying to get up to speed for the Olympics. But that begs the question, how is Carolina so good, having been without their top defenceman for most of the year?

They just have a very workman like group. Shayne Gostisbehere leads them offensively, with 32 points. Okay, well you could argue that Jake Sanderson has the edge (he’s at 40). Conversely, Ghost has that total in 15 less games. Furthermore, K’Andre Miller, at 6’5″, is a tough hombre to play against, skating 22:44 a night. So, let’s just summarize the two collective groups.

Comparison of defencemen Corsi

Alexander Nikishin with a HEAVY hit on Nick Lardis, then drops the gloves with Oliver Moore 😳 pic.twitter.com/YiPFlvD7I4

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 23, 2026

Yes, Ottawa is thought to have a strong defence. But the truth is, they aren’t necessarily a strength. You can see this is the one-to-one comparisons with the Hurricanes rearguards. Keep in mind, that the two teams have some other similarities. When there is such a gap in certain points, you can start to see why the Sens are where they are in the standings. They need to better help drive play, that will lead to better efficiency.

The Guh…Guh…Guh…Goalies

The other part of these NHL Predictions, is that Ottawa flat-out gets out-goalied. Will Optimus Reim be able to transform this rhetoric? That’s yet to be proven. Recently inked James Reimer comes in with a 1-1-1 record, a 3.02 goals-against average, and an .889 save percentage. Meanwhile, the Sens have to contend with an opposing goalie, who has been a wall. Brandon Bussi is an exceptional 18-3-1 on the campaign. Better park the bus of Brady Tkachuk, Ridly Greig, Dylan Cozens, and whoever else wants to jump on board just outside the blue paint. Bussi also has a 2.20 GAA, a .906 SV%, with one shutout.

This would be the time to drop our disclaimer. Be sure to check social media before locking in your daily fantasy starting lineup.

NHL Predictions

Ottawa has to be strong on the boards. Get to the outside of Carolina, and get established. Control the puck and no turnovers, or have proper support if they do. They can win, but as any Sens fan knows, these things they call Ws don’t come easy.

Prediction: Hurricanes 3 – Senators 2

Prop Bets

For Ottawa, we took the captain last game, and he came through, so let’s go for what would be three-in-a-row for him, personally. He has a goal in four of the Sens last five games. In the other side of the coin, let’s take Andrei Svechnikov. He was held off the scoreboard last game, but was probably tired from skating over 22 minutes. Before that, he had five and in past three games. That included a hat trick against the New Jersey Devils.

Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images

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