By: Kim Smith Published 01/31/2026, 05:35 AM ET 
The Montreal Canadiens travel to western New York to take on the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday, January 31, 2026, in an Eastern Conference matchup at KeyBank Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on NHL Network. Buffalo enters the contest as the home favorite with the Sabres listed at -135 on the moneyline. The total for this matchup is set at 6.5 goals. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights and expert predictions.
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Terms & Conditions Canadiens Rolling Despite Defensive Concerns
Montreal comes into this matchup with a 30-17-7 overall record and has been excellent on the road this season, posting a 14-6-6 record away from home. The Canadiens have played fast, aggressive hockey and have consistently generated offense regardless of venue. Over their last five games, Montreal has recently won over Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, while dropping games to Boston and Buffalo. That recent loss to the Sabres adds an extra layer of motivation for Montreal in this rematch.
Statistically, Montreal averages 3.36 goals per game while allowing 3.26, numbers that indicate a team comfortable playing in higher-scoring contests. The Canadiens generate 26.2 shots per game and allow 27.0, often relying on finishing ability rather than overwhelming shot volume. Their power play has been a strength, converting at 23.2% with 36 power play goals on the season.
Defensively, Montreal has struggled on the penalty kill, operating at just 76.9% while allowing 40 power play goals. That weakness has led to several momentum-swinging goals against quality opponents. While the Canadiens have scored four shorthanded goals and avoided allowing any themselves, discipline will be critical against a Buffalo team with strong special teams at home.
Sabres Dominating With Confidence at Home
Buffalo enters Saturday’s matchup with a 31-17-5 overall record and has been outstanding at home, posting a 17-6-3 record at KeyBank Center. The Sabres come into this game riding a five-game winning streak and have been one of the league’s hottest teams. Over their last five games, Buffalo has recently won over Los Angeles, Toronto, the Islanders, Montreal, and Nashville, showcasing depth scoring and improved defensive play.
Offensively, Buffalo averages 3.38 goals per game while allowing 3.06, giving them one of the better goal differentials in the conference. The Sabres generate 27.5 shots per game and allow 29.6, often relying on quick transitions and opportunistic scoring. Their power play has been solid at 19.2%, while their penalty kill has been a major strength at 83.6%.
Defensively, Buffalo’s ability to kill penalties and protect the middle of the ice has fueled their recent success. The Sabres have also scored seven shorthanded goals this season, showing an aggressive approach when down a man. Against Montreal’s fast-paced offense, Buffalo’s structure and home-ice advantage could once again play a decisive role.
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres PickMontreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Pick
Buffalo’s recent form, home dominance, and special teams advantage make them the stronger side in this matchup. Montreal has been excellent offensively, but their penalty kill issues are a concern against a disciplined Sabres team. With Buffalo playing confident hockey and riding momentum, the Sabres are well-positioned to earn another home victory.
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Total Pick
I’m backing the over in this matchup because both teams average well over three goals per game and are comfortable playing at a fast pace. Montreal’s defensive vulnerabilities combined with Buffalo’s efficient scoring attack create a strong case for a higher-scoring game. If special teams factor in early, this total should have room to go over.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Sabres 4, Montreal Canadiens 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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