As we sit here on the second of February, we want to think about the Ottawa Senators realistic odds of making the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Let’s be honest, it isn’t good. However, it is never, not zero, unless you’ve been eliminated, then it is, zero. Luckily Sen fans, have no fear, it isn’t zero. So, let’s figure out some realistic chances that the Sens, with the likes of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Jake Sanderson, are playing hockey into late April, and beyond.

The Current 2025-26 Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Let’s start with their perceived probability of making the postseason, at this point. According to moneypuck, the Sens have a 31.1% chance of making the playoffs. One key component of that value, is that it is above the cut-off, of being somewhat realistic to physically make it. The Nashville Predators sit at 23.8%, which again isn’t good, but if the ingredients are right, they could make it. However, the next team, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 10.1% chance at making the playoffs.

For all intents and purposes, that is at a level that it isn’t realistic to expect they can make it. Because nine times out of ten, they won’t make it, and that’s just by the probabilities. The concept of it happening at that low of odds, is extremely unlikely. Eight teams find themselves below the Flyers, that includes a Sens Atlantic Division and provincial rival, too, the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 6.2%.

Current Top Eastern Conference Playoff Probabilities

Tampa Bay – 99.8%
Carolina – 98.8%
Pittsburgh – 89%
Montreal – 79.3%
Detroit – 77.1%
Buffalo – 70.6%
Boston – 65.7%
NY Islanders – 54%
Columbus – 41.3%
Washington – 36%
Florida – 32.1%

Next up is Ottawa, so 12th in the entire Eastern Conference. We think you can disregard Tampa Bay and Carolina, the two division leaders, as well as the surprise, maybe of the entire league, the Sidney Crosby led Pittsburgh Penguins. In addition, we will add a couple more teams into the group of not catchable. We think we can say the Montreal Canadiens, and given the 79.3% probability they have at making it, it would be pretty safe. The Detroit Red Wings are right there, too (77.1%). Given that Montreal and Detroit, along with Tampa Bay, are the top three in the Atlantic Division, we will say they all make it. We will also include the New York Islanders (54%), to round out the Metropolitan Division’s top-three teams.

Who to Focus On

If we assume that those six teams’ probabilities are independent of each other, that works out to about (only) 29% that all six of them make it. However, we will add, those probabilities likely aren’t totally independent of each other, as one team making it, would depend on the others’ outcomes, so the true probability of all six of those teams, is slightly higher than 29%. However, not much. So, even taking the best six teams at this time, there is plenty of wiggle room.

Plus, if we consider the other five aside from the Islanders, it jumps to 54% that all five of those teams make it. The Islanders themselves at only 54%, are still fighting for their spot. It just goes to show, that even being in February, lots is left to be decided.

In any case, the five teams not listed, are who Ottawa realistically needs to target. That leaves the Sabres, Bruins, Blue Jackets, Capitals, and Panthers. Along with Ottawa, they are essentially fighting for the two Eastern Conference Wild Card positions.

Strength of schedule pic.twitter.com/ymQTVoSpac

— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) January 28, 2026

Next up, we want to focus on The Athletic contributor Dom Luszczyszyn’s strength of schedule. Unfortunately for the Sens, it is thought they have a strong schedule remaining. On the flip side of the coin, some of their competition does too, luckily. Most notably, the two teams higher in the standings, the Bruins and Sabres, have the hardest schedules. Let’s focus for a second, just on those six teams we discussed.

Team & Projected Net Rating
Bruins  10.4
Sabres  9.1
Senators  3.7
Capitals  -3.1
Blue Jackets  -6.3
Panthers  -7.6

Before we put our findings all together, let’s consider one other thing. Currently, the Senators are dead last in 5v5 save percentage above expected on unblocked shots at -0.0168. All things being considered equal, if we used that to directly predict overall team point percentage, the Sens would have around a .505 point percentage. Not good when you consider that only the New York Rangers are currently below that number in the entire Eastern Conference. If the Sens were more in the middle of the pack of that statistic, it would correlate to a more reasonable .557 point percentage, or about .05 points higher. In terms of season-long point totals, we are talking somewhere in the range of 83 to 91 points, as the perceived improvement to the differential.

Putting It All Together for the 2026 Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

We also recently touched on how an improved specialty team outcome can translate into total goal differential throughout the course of a full 82-game season. Therefore, if combine the two ideas, of improved goaltending and special teams, right there, we are talking between two and up to five more wins for the remainder of the season. That’s significant.

Furthermore, of the five target teams for the Sens, they have tied for the fewest games played, and a couple teams having played one or two more games.

With Linus Ullmark just having returned, the Sens as a group very healthy right now, and seemingly have worked out many of the issues plaguing the club, things are happening. If they can find a way to finish, at more of an elite level, based on everything we have been touching on, we might have a winner. So, can the Sens make the playoffs in 2025-26? Yes. Will it be easy? No. But, are they trending in the right direction, potentially at the right time? We will let you decide.

Main Photo Credit: Jason Mowry-USA TODAY Sports