ST. LOUIS — Before the NHL’s Olympic trade freeze went into effect Wednesday, the St. Louis Blues made a minor move. They sent forward Nick Bjugstad to the New Jersey Devils for AHL forward Thomas Bordeleau and a conditional fourth-round draft pick.
There was one major move around the league, as the Los Angeles Kings acquired Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers. But other than the Rangers moving a player who wasn’t going to be part of their retool, it was a quiet day.
Back to the Blues.
Aside from the fact that general manager Doug Armstrong may just need more time to get a trade across the finish line, there are two other reasons why teams were purposely waiting until after the Olympic freeze ends on Feb. 22 (10:59 p.m. CT) to wrap up potential trades. No. 1, why would clubs acquire a player who’s participating in the Olympics run the risk of injury, and No. 2, why would clubs want to accrue a daily salary cap hit on players when they can just wait until the break is over?
Thus, the expectation has been that any flurry of trade activity would happen in the 13 days from the end of the freeze until the NHL trade deadline, March 6 at 2 p.m. (CT).
That means this figures to be the busiest stretch of the calendar year for Armstrong, who doubles as the GM for both Canada and the Blues. While he’s watching his Olympic roster go for gold, he may be making changes to an NHL roster he hopes will be contending again soon.
In The Athletic’s trade board 6.0, colleague Chris Johnston once again had five Blues players on his 50-player list: No. 5 Robert Thomas, No. 11 Brayden Schenn, No. 12 Justin Faulk, No. 27 Jordan Kyrou and No. 40 Jordan Binnington. And just to illustrate the potential number of moves, Bjugstad was dealt Wednesday and understandably wasn’t on the list.
The Blues, who played their final game before the break Wednesday against the Dallas Stars, are expected to be active, and as Armstrong said in December, there are no untouchables.
But enough of the talk. Who will the Blues trade?
In Tuesday’s edition of “Insider Trading,” TSN’s Darren Dreger acknowledged the St. Louis names in play around the league, but indicated that the cost of those players is exorbitant at the moment.
“We know that general manager Doug Armstrong has been eager to refresh the Blues as management shifts (to GM-in-waiting Alexander Steen) in the St. Louis organization,” Dreger said on the show. “But teams are wary of the high asking prices currently, and also, there’s some cap management with the general managers expressing some interest in the St. Louis Blues players believed to be available.
“We’re talking about high-end guys like (Colton) Parayko and Faulk and Kyrou and Schenn and Robby Thomas and Jordan Binnington. (They’re) all pieces in play, some more complicated than others. There’s value in that group of players — obviously there’s value in those guys — but the asking price for each has to come down and, as I said, there’s some cap management in play as well.”
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So if the Blues are inclined to trade one or more of those players, and it appears they are, we will have to keep at least three things in mind:
What does Armstrong want, and will he come down on asking price?
As reported, Armstrong said he wouldn’t be willing to accept pennies on the dollar for players who have produced in the past. But, as his counterparts have probably told him already, that was the past.
Kyrou, a 30-goal scorer the past three seasons, is on pace for 19 goals this season. Thomas, who recently had minor surgery on his leg and has missed 15 games with injury this season, is averaging 2.08 points per 60 minutes this season — his lowest total since 2022-23 (2.05). Parayko, who scored a career-high 16 goals last season, got his first this season Monday in Nashville. Binnington has the lowest save percentage and highest goals-against average of his career.
Then there are players like Faulk, who’s had a bit of a renaissance this season, and Schenn, who, as captain, would bring even more experience to any locker room. Faulk is 33 years old with one season left on his contract, and Schenn is 34 with two seasons remaining, and could be viewed by the Blues as players they’d like to keep but would be best-suited to move if there is significant interest.
A month away from the deadline, it’s no surprise that teams around the league are saying the prices are too high — it’s likely because they are. But the cat-and-mouse game will continue until those clubs decide how badly they want the Blues’ players and Armstrong decides how much he wants to move them.
Contenders are typically up against the cap and may need to offset salary
Here’s a list of the 16 clubs that were in a playoff spot going into Wednesday’s games: Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth and Seattle Kraken.
The NHL’s salary cap is $95.5 million this season, and of those 16 teams, 10 of them have less than $3 million in projected cap space at the deadline, according to PuckPedia.
Of the Blues’ top players involved in the trade speculation, none have less than a $6 million AAV: Thomas ($8.125 million), Kyrou ($8.125 million), Faulk ($6.5 million), Parayko ($6.5 million), Schenn ($6.5 million) and Binnington ($6 million). Additionally, all six have term left on their contract after this season: Thomas (five seasons), Kyrou (five), Faulk (one), Parayko (four), Schenn (two) and Binnington (one).
Any deals involving these specific players could be complicated. There would either need to be salary coming back to the Blues, or Armstrong would have to retain salary, which seems unlikely for players who have multiple years of term.
Robert Thomas has a full no-trade clause and five more years of term. (Isaiah J. Downing / Imagn Images)
Let’s not forget about the no-trade clauses several players possess
If that’s not enough to make a deal come together, each of those six players also has some form of a no-trade clause. Thomas, Kyrou and Parayko have full no-trade clauses, meaning the Blues need their approval before any deal can be completed. Schenn and Faulk each possess a modified 15-team no-trade list, and Binnington has a 14-team no-trade list.
At this point, in the case of Thomas, Kyrou and Parayko, it’s not known who would be willing to waive their NTC. In the case of Schenn, Faulk and Binnington, it’s fair to believe the Blues would pay some respect to the three veterans — two of whom, Schenn and Binnington, won a Stanley Cup in 2019 — when orchestrating a potential trade.
It would seem the higher probability of a trade before the March 6 deadline would involve Faulk, Schenn and Binnington — though goalie trades aren’t as common in-season — because they’re aging veterans who may not be a part of the plans moving forward. Like the Bjugstad deal, there’s also a strong possibility the team could trade another middle- or bottom-six forward, such as Pius Suter, Oskar Sundqvist or Mathieu Joseph.
But if it’s a blockbuster you’re eagerly waiting on, for the reasons mentioned above, it may take until the offseason to find a perfect fit for both the Blues and their dance partner.