Sportsbooks pulled NHL Draft first overall pick odds following Gavin McKenna’s felony assault arrest
McKenna was -200 (66.7% implied probability) to go first overall before facing charges
See my breakdown on what happens when odds return and why McKenna likely still goes first
The 2026 NHL Draft betting market went dark this week. Sportsbooks yanked their first overall pick odds within hours of Gavin McKenna’s arrest, leaving bettors wondering where the Penn State forward lands when markets reopen.
McKenna sat at -200 to go first overall before the news broke. The field was +154. Now the 2026 NHL Draft odds have vanished entirely as books wait for clarity on his legal situation.
2026 NHL Draft First Overall Pick Odds
Here’s where the market stood before McKenna’s arrest:
Books don’t like uncertainty, and they’ll wait at least through McKenna’s February 11 preliminary hearing before repricing this market. When odds return, expect McKenna’s implied probability to drop from 66.7%, but probably not by as much as the headlines suggest.
My guess? McKenna returns somewhere around -140 to -150 (58-60% implied probability), with the field improving to around +120 (45%). That shift prices in legal risk without overcorrecting for what’s likely a manageable situation.
Pre-incident NHL Draft odds as of Fe.3, at FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet on hockey tonight at NHL betting apps.
Will McKenna Go First Overall?
The talent gap hasn’t changed. McKenna’s playmaking ability is special, with scouts comparing his vision and puck-handling to Mitch Marner’s. That kind of upside doesn’t disappear because of one off-ice incident.
First-time offenders in Pennsylvania often receive deferred sentences, probation, or counseling rather than prison time. If charges get reduced to a misdemeanor, this becomes a footnote rather than a career-defining moment.
Character evaluations will factor in more heavily now, but if McKenna’s hearing goes smoothly and charges get reduced, this situation should fade into background noise by the time the 2026 NHL Draft rolls around June 26-27 in Buffalo.
Gavin McKenna Assault Charges Explained
McKenna allegedly punched a 21-year-old man following an altercation on January 31 near Doggie’s Pub in downtown State College. The incident occurred after Penn State’s Stadium Series loss to Michigan State at Beaver Stadium, where McKenna posted a goal and two assists in front of nearly 75,000 fans.
According to the police affidavit, McKenna was at a hockey event with friends and family when his group had an exchange of words with another group near the Pugh Street Parking Garage around 8:45 p.m. Street camera footage reportedly shows McKenna throwing two punches. Officers found blood on the sidewalk.
Statement from State College (Pa.) police on charges filed against Gavin McKenna.
Reports: Criminal complaint indicates the incident was caught on street cameras with McKenna allegedly punching the victim twice in the face after an “exchange of words.” pic.twitter.com/1bc9fyHynl
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 5, 2026
The victim was hospitalized at Mount Nittany Medical Center with fractures on both sides of his jaw, a missing tooth, and significant swelling. He underwent surgery on February 2 and will have his jaw wired shut for approximately two weeks.
McKenna faces first-degree felony aggravated assault, misdemeanor simple assault, summary harassment, and summary disorderly conduct. The felony charge carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison under Pennsylvania law. He was released on $20,000 unsecured bail.
Reports indicate the altercation started after the victim made comments about McKenna’s mother. Some NHL teams will view that differently than the legal system does.
McKenna 2026 NHL Draft Stock
The 18-year-old from Whitehorse, Yukon made headlines last summer by becoming one of the first major Canadian junior players to jump to the NCAA, reportedly landing an NIL deal worth around $700,000.
His transition wasn’t seamless. After dominating the WHL with 129 points in 56 games for Medicine Hat last season, McKenna’s numbers dipped against older competition. He’s put up 32 points (11 goals, 21 assists) in 24 games for the Nittany Lions this season.
His World Juniors performance (4 goals, 10 assists in 7 games for Canada’s bronze medal team) reminded everyone why he’s been the consensus top prospect. NHL Central Scouting still ranks him as the top North American skater.
The race had tightened even before the arrest. Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg closed ground with a historic SHL season, posting 24 points in 25 games for Frölunda while leading Sweden to World Juniors gold. Defenseman Keaton Verhoeff (North Dakota) and forwards Tynan Lawrence and Alberts Smits have also entered the first overall conversation.
NHL Draft Odds Betting Value
When markets reopen, there could be value on McKenna if books overcorrect. A -140 price (58% implied) on a player who’s still the consensus top prospect is worth a look if you believe the legal situation resolves favorably.
The February 11 preliminary hearing is the key date. That’s when we’ll know whether this drags out through spring or wraps up quickly. Keep an eye on the docket and be ready to move when odds return.
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