There’s a difference between patience and hesitation, and at the 2026 Olympic break, the Winnipeg Jets are walking that line.

After 56 games, their season tells a familiar story: elite goaltending, a trusted core, and an organization that prefers stability over experimentation. It’s a formula that has kept them afloat, but one that has left little margin for error as the playoff race tightens.

The question now isn’t whether the Jets can stay competitive. It’s whether they’re willing to change how they get there.

Current Roster Build

The Winnipeg Jets’ current roster construction is a mix of core long-term players supplemented by veteran additions for depth. A large portion of their current core was either drafted and developed, or acquired in trades, to complete the roster.

Now that Winnipeg has played 56 games of its regular season, they’ve had to find a new identity and set new expectations. Scott Arniel discussed this concept all the way back in training camp, stating that they had to reset and reinvest ahead of the season. In the Jets’ 5-1 loss to Montreal, he referred to the post-Olympic return to practice as a ‘mini training camp.’

This is a team that relies on veterans to drive the success and show that the Jets are in a ‘win now’ window, but they’ve never fully committed to being all-in, even when the window was clearly open.

Outside of Connor and Scheifele, Winnipeg has a strong core of wingers that don’t move the needle when it comes to secondary scoring. This is a forward core that has a dominant top line, and not a lot to supplement it when they don’t produce on any given night.

Defensively, the team is sound, and this is pre-trade deadline chatter after all. Logan Stanley emerged this year as a great number five option, and Elias Salomonsson has seemingly run away with becoming a cornerstone piece defensively for the Jets. Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg remain pillars for Winnipeg, and the season the Jets are having is more of a one-off in most people’s viewpoints.

Goaltending? The Jets have absolutely masked some margin-for-error issues with one of the best goaltenders in the league. The backup is where things have become a bit of a problem, and that was only realized when Connor Hellebuyck underwent a minor surgery mid-season. Eric Comrie has been serviceable for the past two seasons, but with the likes of two youngsters (Thomas Milic & Domenic DiVincentiis) performing incredibly well down in the AHL, it may be time to give them some NHL games in a backup role.

Whatever expectations Winnipeg came into the season with are not the expectations they should have in their final 26 games.

The lines, on paper, and specifically the first three lines, have the possibility of being really strong options for Winnipeg, but they haven’t produced beyond the first line.

With 26 games left in their season in 50 days, the final month and a half of the NHL regular season is a sprint, and it’s going to be an endurance test.

Secondary scoring has been a significant problem for Winnipeg, and with the busiest stretch of games approaching for the Jets, they need to determine what works and what doesn’t.

This roster was built to be competitive, not flexible, and that distinction is now defining their ceiling.

Take a look at their lineup below, and it seems that a blank slate for that final 26-game stretch is needed.

Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Alex Iafallo
Cole Perfetti – Adam Lowry – Gabriel Vilardi
Nino Niederreiter – Jonathan Toews – Vladislav Namestnikov
Cole Koepke – Morgan Barron – Gustav Nyquist
Tanner Pearson

Josh Morrissey – Dylan DeMelo
Dylan Samberg – Elias Salomonsson
Logan Stanley – Luke Schenn
Isaak Phillips

Connor Hellebuyck
Eric Comrie

Injured Reserve: Neal Pionk, Haydn Fleury, and Colin Miller.

Identity, Usage Trends & What’s Changed Since October?

My biggest question at this stage of the season is, who does the coaching staff trust the most? The Jets have their key pieces at all three positions, and on defense is their strongest position right now.

The all-too-familiar line combinations reappear when trailing in games, and adjustments are conservative, rather than reactive to the game situation. This is a major observation that shows Winnipeg prefers stability, rather than experimentation in-game.

This dates back plenty of years, too. The most recent example was last season, when the Winnipeg Jets wouldn’t move Kyle Connor off the top line to go with Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi. When Winnipeg did make the changes, it was a strong line that solidified the depth Winnipeg had, but they went back to the usual Connor, Scheifele, Vilardi line shortly after. The other example is Patrik Laine on the second line, while Blake Wheeler played on the first line with Scheifele and Connor.

Winnipeg moved into this old habit when facing Montreal on February 4th, and they defaulted to swapping Jonathan Toews and Adam Lowry, and then later swapped Alex Iafallo and Gustav Nyquist.

This falls in the blanket trap of Winnipeg preferring stability, rather than experimentation, especially in-game.

I remember way back in training camp, I spoke with a few people regarding the excitement about the 2025-26 season. One conversation struck me, and it was that one bad stretch could derail the entire season.

The complete shift in the season? Losing 11-straight games and not making any immediate decisions to change their lineup, or to make any roster moves.

Right now, when Winnipeg bounces back after a loss, they don’t chase that momentum; they try to contain the damage.

The Jets pieced together a four-game winning streak following their 11-game losing streak, but since that four-game winning streak, they’ve alternated between a win and a loss.

The coaching staff in Winnipeg trusts reliability, and they lean on steady players and line combinations. When you look at the puck possession metrics of this roster, one thing strikes me, and that is Winnipeg plays a strong puck possession with the man advantage, but not at five-on-five.

Across 56 games this season, Winnipeg is sitting below 50% in Corsi For (48.21%) at five-on-five. With a power play, Winnipeg is operating at 88.44% in Corsi For.

In rolling 10-game averages, Winnipeg has operated at a season-low 40% Corsi in early October, and a season-high 56% Corsi in mid-to-late December.

The main thing in all of this? Winnipeg peaked just before the Christmas break and hasn’t recovered since. So what has changed?

In mid-November, the Winnipeg Jets activated Cole Koepke and Morgan Barron off injured reserve and reassigned Brad Lambert, Parker Ford, and Nikita Chibrikov to the Manitoba Moose. Between games 10 and 22, Winnipeg actually improved from a 42% to 50% Corsi.

They simply got better in that time frame at controlling the puck, but didn’t win many games. Things would stagnate until game 34, where Winnipeg endured its worst stretch of hockey until game 46.

How does a team get better at controlling the puck, but still lose games? That’s a question that many people have tried to unpack, but simply look at the 11-game losing streak for Winnipeg.

They lost nine games in that span by one goal, and that should concern many. Throughout the entire season, Winnipeg has lost 19 games by one goal, and that’s something that strikes me as concerning.

Winnipeg ended up on the losing end of them, whether it was in regulation or not; that’s 19 crucial games that could’ve drastically changed where they are in the standings right now. Even if they won just half of those games, Winnipeg would be in the hunt for a wildcard spot.

Instead, heading into the Olympic break, Winnipeg sits 11 points out of the wildcard spot and seventh in the Central Division standings.

How does Winnipeg convert on high-danger opportunities? Well, they sit 0.2% above the league average of 8.6% in converting high-danger scoring chances to goals against.

Looking deeper into Winnipeg’s gap in scoring, as they have two 60-point players in Mark Scheifele (27G, 68 PTS) and Kyle Connor (25G, 64 PTS). The Jets have just two other players above the 40-point mark in Gabriel Vilardi (21G, 50 PTS) and Josh Morrissey (10G, 42 PTS). After that? The Jets have 11 players who have between 10 and 20 points on the season.

Winnipeg doesn’t lack scoring talent; it lacks scoring distribution.

This team is not converting high-danger chances because two players are on the ice for the majority of the goals scored. The Jets have scored 159 goals this season, and Mark Scheifele has been on the ice for 92 of those goals. His linemate, Kyle Connor, has been on the ice for 88 goals, while Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey have been on for 80 and 93, respectively.

Four players have been on the ice for nearly 60% of Winnipeg’s goals this season, and that limits the chances that the entire roster has to contribute to the scoring. Additionally, when these four players are getting the best looks throughout each game, that limits the possibilities of other players getting grade A scoring chances.

I know that’s the purpose of having a top line, but there needs to be some framework around the top line, especially on nights when they get shut down. The root problem has been secondary scoring and will continue to be for the remainder of the season.

This almost isn’t about what has changed since October, but rather what hasn’t changed since then, and how the numbers continue to work against Winnipeg right now.

After Winnipeg’s top line opened the scoring with their only goal against Montreal, the Canadiens pressed the top line harder than any other line simply because the Jets don’t have more than a few scoring threats.

Does this change at the trade deadline? Or will Winnipeg move on from some players and keep others that they have in their current lineup? Might Winnipeg inject some youth who are currently playing with the Manitoba Moose?

Trade Deadline Primer

Is Winnipeg being supplemented or protected? Winnipeg may not be the premier destination around the NHL to live and play in, but they’re certainly a team that has the talent to be competitive, and it goes without saying that the city will support the team to an extreme.

This falls under organizational reluctance to make any midseason changes, or even to disrupt chemistry in a time when they must win games. Halfway through the 11-game losing streak was the perfect time to disrupt chemistry to try and get back into the win column, but old habits die hard.

Once Winnipeg saw a positive few games, especially winning four-straight after just losing 11, they seemingly doubled down by keeping their lines mostly intact.

Are the Jets protecting a core, or protecting themselves from risk?

You can only imagine if Winnipeg started to sound the alarm midway through that losing stretch and made some moves to better their roster. They’ve been over-reliant on their top stars and haven’t been too worried about the lack of secondary scoring.

Scott Arniel said it himself after the Jets’ 5-1 loss to the Detroit Red Wings: the team is fighting for its life.

We’ve seen all season long that teams have made moves to better themselves while Winnipeg simply stands pat, and even when they’ve made moves internally rather than externally, the call-ups have been restricted, rather than given any freedom.

Why is the front office so cautious about making moves every single year? If there was ever a year to go all in, it was the 2024-25 season, but hindsight is 20/20. It was the final year of Nikolaj Ehlers in a Winnipeg Jets uniform, Connor Hellebuyck had an MVP season, and Winnipeg brought in Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn to supplement their Presidents’ Trophy season into the playoffs.

Purely off of veteran presence and familiarity with the Jets, both the Tanev and Schenn acquisitions were wonderful, but they shouldn’t have been the only pieces acquired at last year’s trade deadline.

It goes without saying, but it truly feels as if Winnipeg is at a crossroads right now. Do they want to continue being the team that focuses on complementary depth, or do they want to find that headline addition that will make people talk?

This trade deadline should confirm things in the eyes of everybody who follows the team in Manitoba, but it absolutely shouldn’t be transformative. This is a massive opportunity to show that the front office still believes in the core’s ability to get the job done, but it also needs to signal that they need to supplement their core guys long-term.

Whether or not it’s internal or external, a decision to bring some new faces into the Jets’ lineup must be made, and the trade deadline puts a cap on when the Jets can or cannot make those decisions anymore.

A Look at the Manitoba Moose

Down in the AHL, the Manitoba Moose are having a competitive season. The organization padded the Moose with veteran depth, and it shows that the development has been positive for the Jets’ top prospects.

Manitoba’s scoring has been far more spread out, and a large reason for that is that they’ve rolled four lines all season long. The readiness of teams has to be measured by consistency rather than point totals.

In Manitoba’s case, they’re an incredibly strong team when they score first, but they seem to have a hard time getting their game in check when they give up the first goal. Add that if Manitoba is trailing heading into the third period, they’re most likely to lose the game. On the opposite side of things, if they’re leading heading into the third period, they’re most likely to win the game.

It’s simple predictability, but the Moose have provided consistency all season long, and their players are beginning to get looks in the NHL.

I’ve had excellent conversations in the press box with people who work in the AHL, and others who sit near me in the media row. One constant conversation is that the Moose could have any guys be called up and be great utility players, and that seems to be a consistent thing across all of the depth pieces Winnipeg added this year for the Moose.

Reliability is the name of the game, and they’re focusing on that, rather than star power, and to Manitoba’s benefit, they’ve gotten stronger when their top guys are recalled.

However, nothing will be permanent for players being recalled, and I almost wonder if it’s entirely situational.

Up front, Nikita Chibrikov, Brad Lambert, and Parker Ford all started the season on the Jets’ opening night roster, but now, they’re all back with Manitoba. Danny Zhilkin spent time with the Jets, and he certainly hasn’t taken his foot off the gas since being sent back to Manitoba.

With the younger guys being recalled, I wonder if the Jets take a look at Samuel Fagemo, Walker Deuhr, Mason Shaw, David Gustafsson, and Phillip Di Giuseppe. All five guys are in the Moose’s top six for scoring and have been driving factors down in Manitoba all season long. If the Jets make changes to their roster, these guys could get a few games based on situational needs.

A lot of the Moose’s success this season is partially due to them learning from their forgettable 25th season. The success can be closely tied to the Jets’ organizational philosophy, and it’s also a massive factor due to the successes of the veterans and interchangeable chemistry with the Jets’ top prospects.

The Jets have to take a page out of what the Moose are doing this year; they’ve perfectly supplemented their prospects’ development paths with irreplaceable leadership in the AHL. Why can’t the same happen in the NHL?

Manitoba gets more firepower next year with Kieron Walton and Kevin He graduating from junior hockey, and why can’t they graduate any of their recently drafted prospects from the AHL to the NHL without shunting their development?

In net, Manitoba has been dominant in the crease, and their goaltending has won them several games. Manitoba plays a hard game offensively, and they absolutely can torch teams when they have control of the puck. When things don’t exactly go their way, DiVincentiis and Milic have been strong in net for when the Moose end up in their end.

Is it time to graduate players from the AHL? Absolutely. Is it time to look at how the Jets are developing players? Absolutely.

The Jets aren’t known for attracting the top free agents, so they should double down on their draft and develop standard before it’s too late. If they have a reliable pipeline similar to the teams’ early years after relocation to Winnipeg, they’ll churn out NHL-calibre talent, but right now, they’ve done the exact opposite.

As the Olympic break is in full swing, it allows Winnipeg to identify and reinforce standards that the team is used to. It’s a reset, and as Scott Arniel put it, a mini training camp, and it could provide the perfect jolt for the team.

Olympic Break Reset

This three-week Olympic break provides a physical rest for the players who aren’t competing, but it also provides a mental reset to get through the busiest stretch of games in the season.

However, the biggest thing to note about this break is that it isn’t a reset button on the Jets’ season; it’s a mirror for them to analyze where they’ve landed at the 56-game mark.

Winnipeg has five games before the trade deadline, and that’s after the Olympic break wraps up. The first 56 games of the season were the driving force, and that should dictate the trade deadline approach. The Jets must keep the players they can build around long-term, and move on from players that they don’t see being a Jet long-term.

This is also the best opportunity to reevaluate usage without in-game pressure. It essentially serves as a time for the Jets to look into their roster and figure out what can be changed and what can still work.

Any changes the team makes don’t have to reinvent identity; it just has to reinforce it. This starts with the coaching staff, and Arniel calling this post-Olympic practice stretch a mini training camp is a positive reinforcement of the team’s identity.

The schedule, which is incredibly demanding over the next 50 days in Winnipeg, will test their depth guys in honest ways, and that’s mostly on who they keep post-trade deadline. If they recall guys from the Moose to see what they can do over the next few weeks, that’s great, but it can’t be understated the importance of the Moose being successful and making a playoff run of their own.

Finally, if Winnipeg wants to show that this is a one-off year, they’ll make the pivot in the offseason to set the same standard they have on an annual basis, and they’ll for sure pad their secondary scoring to have more than just a few scoring threats.

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