MILAN — As preposterously good as Canada’s forward group is, as unnerving as the Czechs’ goaltending trio is, as dynamic as Sweden’s blue line is, as pesky as Finland’s bottomless store of two-way players always is, there’s a very real chance the members of the United States men’s hockey team leaves Milan in 16 days with gold medals slung around their necks, their names forever burned into our collective memory. It’s a great team full of great players, most of whom have waited their whole lives to wear the red, white and blue jersey of Team USA on an Olympic stage.
It would be a crowning achievement for so many players who have wanted this for so long. Auston Matthews could cement his status as an American hockey hero. Connor Hellebuyck could prove himself worthy of the big moments. Quinn Hughes could write a signature moment as an all-time elite defenseman. Matt Boldy could launch himself into the realm of household names. We’re talking legacy stuff, the kind of thing that gets etched into the first sentence of your Hall of Fame plaque. It’s hard to overstate just how much is riding on these Olympics for those who compete in them.
But the man with perhaps the most at stake over these next couple of weeks won’t even be wearing one of those jerseys. He’ll be watching from above, sweating out every shift as if he were playing. Two weeks from now, he’ll either be a genius or a fool, the man who built the perfect roster or the man who squandered the golden age of American hockey.
Whether it’s in the form of a gold medal or an albatross, Bill Guerin will wear Team USA’s result at the 2026 Olympics around his neck for the rest of his life.
Because the easiest thing for the American general manager to do would have been the obvious thing to do. To put the very best American players on the ice. To cast his lot with the most gifted players available to him. To pick chalk. Had Guerin simply done that, he still could have been hailed as a hero and a genius in the event of an American victory, but could have largely avoided being blamed in the event of another American failure.
But that’s not what Guerin did. He left off three of the top four American goal scorers in the NHL. No Jason Robertson, who has 32 goals in 57 games with the Dallas Stars. No Cole Caufield, who also has 32 goals in 57 games with the Montreal Canadiens, including a league-leading eight game-winners — a league-high four of them in three-on-three overtime, a discipline which very well might decide these Olympics. No Alex DeBrincat, who has 30 goals in 58 games with the Detroit Red Wings. No Lane Hutson, the second-leading point-getter among defenseman and as dynamic a talent as the Americans have. No Adam Fox, who was looking like his old Norris-winning self before an injury.
Jason Robertson’s Olympic roster snub raised eyebrows. The Dallas Stars forward has 32 goals in 57 games. (Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)
All told, Guerin left off four of the top eight scorers among American defenseman (though Jackson LaCombe was added as an injury replacement for Seth Jones), and six of the top 14 scorers among American forwards. Of course, there are always going to be good players left off the roster with such a deep talent pool. But when Team Canada’s Doug Armstrong decided against bringing Sam Bennett, Connor Bedard and Matthew Schaefer, it was for the likes of Nick Suzuki, Tom Wilson and Anthony Cirelli — elite players having elite seasons. Guerin chose J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck, both of whom are mired in a dreadful campaign with the New York Rangers, both of whom earned their spot not on their present but on their past.
Guerin liked what he saw from the Americans at the 4 Nations Face-Off last year and stuck to the same plan — even though it was a very short, made-up tournament featuring only four teams; even though the Americans, as they so often have for the last four decades, came up short. Was that team every bit as good as the Canadians who beat them in overtime? Or did it need one more game-breaker, one more goal scorer? Guerin’s betting everything on the former.
Choosing truculence over talent in a tournament like the Olympics opens a GM up to all sorts of criticisms — from fans, from pundits, even from team social-media accounts.
And Guerin clearly knows it.
“Honest to God, I really don’t care,” Guerin told KFAN’s Dan Barreiro on Monday. “I don’t care what the media says, I don’t care what a fan in a certain market (says after) their player was left off the team. I don’t care. All I’m trying to do is put together the best team for the United States and go over and win. Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong. But those are the decisions I’ve made.”
Any wonder this guy loves truculence?
Team Canada has these dilemmas, too, of course. Seth Jarvis is replacing the injured Brayden Point at the last minute instead of the more dangerous and productive Bedard because of his ability to kill penalties and play in a bottom-six role. Bedard is a far more tantalizing choice because who wouldn’t want to see him skating in Point’s spot alongside Connor McDavid? But Armstrong and head coach Jon Cooper clearly have other plans and will elevate another roster player to Point’s spot on the top line. Bedard doesn’t make sense in a bottom-six role, so the scrappier, more versatile Jarvis gets the spot. It’s all part of the team-building process.
But the Americans have always taken this idea to extremes, long before Guerin had the top job. It’s almost as if too many Americans have watched “Miracle” too many times, and have taken Herb Brooks’ concept of building not the “best” team, but the “right” one too far. As a result, they historically overrate grit and underrate skill. You can’t win a gold medal without scoring goals, and this very American idea of bringing brass knuckles to a swordfight has failed repeatedly. The Miracle on Ice was 46 long years ago, and the United States has won exactly one of these best-on-best tournaments since — the 1996 World Cup. That famously truculent squad further entrenched this scrappy American mindset. But that was 30 years ago. What have we seen since?
In Sochi in 2014, the Americans left home Dustin Byfuglien, the top-scoring American defenseman who was on his way to a 20-goal season; Bobby Ryan, a four-time 30-goal scorer; and Kyle Okposo, the second-leading American point-getter at the time rosters were announced. That team scored zero total goals in the semifinal against Canada and the bronze medal match against Finland. At the World Cup in Toronto in 2016, the Americans really committed to the bit, making John Tortorella the coach and picking Justin Abdelkader and Brandon Dubinsky instead of Phil Kessel, Tyler Johnson, Ryan (again) and Okposo (again). That team flamed out spectacularly, losing to Team Europe, Canada and Czechia, scoring five goals in three games.
Scoring goals matters, it turns out. And there very well might come a time over the next couple of weeks, when the United States is getting goalied by a supposedly lesser nation or when Finland is suffocating the Americans in a low-event affair or when the score is tied late against Canada or Sweden when Robertson’s nose for the net or Caufield’s knack for clutch goals or DeBrincat’s sniping skills or Hutson’s offensive-zone wizardry would be more useful than Trocheck’s solid-but-unspectacular two-way efficiency or Miller’s surly disposition. And when it happens, NBC’s cameras will surely find Guerin.
It’s also entirely possible that Trocheck creates a turnover and converts it at the other end to even up a huge game, or Miller pots a short-handed tally that gives the Americans a massive win. And when it happens, NBC’s cameras will surely find Guerin.
You might not like Guerin’s decisions. You might even strongly disagree with them. But you can’t help but respect someone who so firmly believes in what he’s doing that he’s willing to so dramatically put his reputation on the line on the world’s biggest stage. Playing it safe isn’t always a bad thing, but it’s never really been Guerin’s style.
Whether he’s right or wrong, clever or foolish, playing 3D chess or 2D checkers, this is Guerin’s team. One he believes in, one he’s standing by, one to which he’s freely — and fully — attached his reputation.
“You want to bring heat on me, go ahead,” he told KFAN. “The good outweighs the bad. Honestly, in this world, you can’t keep anybody happy anyway. So I’m just going to make my decisions and move along, enjoy the people that I get to go through this process with. I’m representing the USA in the game I love at the Olympics. How could I be upset, or how could I be having a bad time? This is an incredible experience, an incredible honor.”
An incredible gamble, too. Buona fortuna.