In a short tournament such as the Olympics, goaltending has the potential to play a disproportionate role in the outcome. The entire men’s tournament will span only 12 days, and with single elimination in the knockout stage, goalies can determine a lot.

The problem is, goaltending can be fickle. Brilliance in the crease can come and go on a whim, and recent form matters more than it does for most positions on the ice. Countries selected their rosters based on pedigree, and more than a month before the Olympics, without the benefit of knowing what form each goalie would be in by the time they arrived.

Now that we’re here, let’s do a “heat check” on every NHL goalie set to represent their country. We’ll look at how their season has gone as a whole, but will be specifically focused on how they’ve played since the turn of the calendar.

There are 21 NHL goalies on Olympic rosters, and 12 of them have played at least 10 games since Jan. 1. All but one have played at least six games. It’s a small sample size, but that is kind of the point: to see how each is trending before the big tournament.

The goalies have been separated into four tiers (surging, trending up, stable and trending down) based on their recent form.

SurgingKarel Vejmelka, Czech Republic
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

15

15.94

.915

Vejmelka has been a workhorse for the Utah Mammoth, and is handling the workload brilliantly. He has been one of the best goalies in the NHL since Jan. 1 and is tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy for the most wins this season.

The netminder for the Czech Republic, also known as Czechia, plays a simple game. He’s big, and makes himself even bigger with a picture-perfect stance. He has stayed ahead of the play with quick reads and defensive depth, and enters the Olympics on a heater. His final game with Utah was a 29-save masterpiece against the Detroit Red Wings.

Incredibly, Vejmelka may not even be Czechia’s No. 1 goalie in the Olympics, because the next goalie on our list has been just as good.

Lukáš Dostál, Czech Republic
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

13

11.44

.915

The Czechs enter the Olympics with the luxury of two red-hot goalies to choose from.

Anaheim allows more scoring chances than any team in the NHL, but with his play-reading and skating, Dostál is built to make up for it. He’s also reading the game incredibly well and keeping his skates underneath him.

Czechia will have an interesting decision between the two. When Vejmelka is on, he’s a brick wall, but Dostál is more athletic and has shown his ability to singlehandedly steal a game as recently as Jan. 21 vs. Colorado. That 40-save outing in a 2-1 shootout win was arguably the best performance by any goalie in the NHL this season.

Jeremy Swayman, United States
GoalieGP Since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

10

6.67

.901

Swayman has been a model of consistency this season. His 25 starts with a save percentage north of .900 are second behind only Vejmelka (26), who has started seven more games than Swayman.

His save percentage since Jan. 1 is lower than the other goalies in this tier, but the degree of difficulty on the shots he has faced is significantly higher. Swayman has stood on his head to get the Bruins back into the playoff picture, despite Boston allowing more expected goals per 60 minutes than any team in the league.

He was the United States’ third goalie at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and never saw the net. This summer, he backstopped the Americans to gold at the World Championships with a shutout in the championship game. Will that, combined with the fact that he has outperformed Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger this season, be enough to earn him the net in Milan?

That still feels unlikely, but the U.S. has an embarrassment of riches in the crease.

Joonas Korpisalo, Finland
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

7

7.87

.918

Korpisalo was a late addition to Finland’s roster as an injury substitution for Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen last Tuesday, but he is deserving of the spot.

The 31-year-old did allow eight goals in his final two starts for Boston, but before that had a .940 save percentage over his previous six games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Korpisalo in the Finnish crease at some point when you consider the form of the other two goalies (we’ll get to them much, much later).

Philipp Grubauer, Germany
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

10

6.82

.916

Grubauer’s resurgence in Seattle has been one of the best storylines in the NHL. After four consecutive years with putrid statistics, it was fair to wonder if Grubauer had this level of goaltending left in him, but he has played with a newfound confidence and looked great for the Kraken.

Grubauer’s glove is still incredibly quick, and he has looked more patient lately. If he can carry this form into the Olympics, the Germans may surprise some teams.

Logan Thompson, Canada
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

11

6.32

.905

Thompson followed up last year’s breakout season with another great campaign for the Washington Capitals, establishing himself as one of the best in the NHL. He has the third-best odds to win the Vezina Trophy and enters the Olympics in great form.

He did cool down a bit in mid-January, and then had to miss a few games last week after taking a puck off his mask, but he returned Thursday night against the Nashville Predators and looked terrific.

Thompson is twitchy, explosive and capable of making the type of game-changing saves often needed to win a tournament such as this one, but he was also left off the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Based purely on results and form, he should be Canada’s starter.

Trending upElvis Merzļikins, Latvia
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

7

5.87

.915

Merzļikins has always been a streaky goalie, and Latvia might be catching him at the perfect time. The Columbus Blue Jackets netminder won four of his last five starts and earned his first shutout of the season in his final start last Tuesday.

Merzļikins has ridiculous athleticism, and while the lack of structure in his game can make it difficult to produce consistently good numbers over an 82-game season, he’s the type of goalie — both in style and personality — who can play hero in a tournament like this. Latvia will be overmatched in most of its games, but if Merzļikins makes a few big saves early, the opposition should be concerned.

Arturs Silovs, Latvia
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

9

3.59

.910

Latvia may only have five NHL skaters on its roster, but it has a strong goaltending duo entering the Olympics in good form. With 26 starts already under his belt in Pittsburgh, Silovs has nearly tripled his previous career high for NHL starts in a season.

Silovs has looked more comfortable as he has gotten more playing time. He posted a save percentage north of .900 in each of his last four starts, and six of his last seven.

Akira Schmid, Switzerland
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

9

2.76

.894

Similar to Silovs, Schmid has also found himself in a larger role. With Adin Hill missing extensive time with an injury, Schmid has stepped in and helped the Vegas Golden Knights stay atop the Pacific Division standings with steady play in net.

It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for Schmid, but he’s found his stride lately. He has looked calm and confident in his reads, and his glove hand has been particularly sharp down the stretch. Leonardo Genoni has been a stalwart in the Swiss crease for two decades, but Schmid may have forced his way into the starting role with how he’s played lately.

Dan Vladař, Czech Republic
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

10

-0.05

0.89

It’s been a career season to this point for Vladař, who has been one of the Philadelphia Flyers’ best players through 56 games.

The structure coach Rick Tocchet has the Flyers playing in front of him has certainly played a role, but Vladař has looked much quicker laterally than he did in his years in Calgary. He’s a giant of a man, so when he’s reading the play and moving as well as he has, he’s tough to score on.

StableFilip Gustavsson, Sweden
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

11

-2.72

.898

Gustavsson is the perfect goalie to start this tier off, because “stable” is a great word to describe his game. The 27-year-old is as calm, collected and consistent as they come, and he has once again been a stabilizing force for the Minnesota Wild.

There’s nothing eye-popping about his recent numbers, but he won six of his last seven starts. He stays within his structure perhaps better than any goalie in the league, and makes difficult saves look easy.

Gustavsson could be the top option, or maybe he will share the Swedish net with his Minnesota goalie partner, which transitions perfectly into the next goalie.

Jesper Wallstedt, Sweden
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

7

-2.06

.883

There was a point at which Wallstedt was the hottest goalie in the NHL. Those days felt like a distant past in mid-January after a rough stretch for the rookie, but he turned things around with two impressive starts heading into the Olympic break.

In totality, it’s been a strong first full season in the NHL for the big Swede. Wallstedt is a strong skater with good flexibility for his size, and his compete level and patience make him great in one-on-one situations.

Just making the Olympic roster adds to what has been a dream rookie season for Wallstedt.

Frederik Andersen, Denmark
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

6

3.59

.887

Father Time may be catching up to Andersen this season. He has a career-low .871 save percentage with the Carolina Hurricanes, and looks like a goalie who is slowing down, if only a bit. The 36-year-old, in his 13th NHL season, has found some form lately. He still tracks the puck exceptionally well, and his numbers since Jan. 1 are up from his season-long statistics.

He and his Danish teammates will likely be overmatched, but it’s nice that he gets to compete in the Olympics. His career was nearly timed perfectly to fit into the gap without NHL players at the games, so this experience is a reward for his longevity.

Connor Hellebuyck, United States
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

14

-3.04

.889

No goalie enters the Olympics with more to prove. The way things are trending in Winnipeg, it doesn’t look like Hellebuyck will get the opportunity to exorcise his Stanley Cup playoff demons, so this could be his chance to perform on a big stage this season.

His season has been pedestrian by Hellebuyck’s lofty standards, but he has still been really good. He missed time after undergoing knee surgery in November and hasn’t played at an elite level since returning. Considering he’s the defending Vezina and Hart trophy winner, he likely begins the tournament as the U.S. starter, but there are some talented goalies behind him vying for a shot.

Jacob Markström, Sweden
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

10

-3.46

.880

Overall it has been a disappointing season for Markström in New Jersey, marred by an early injury and inconsistencies. When he’s on his game, Markström is a big, athletic goalie who can make saves other goalies simply can’t. When he’s off his game, he can get caught outside of his posts a little too often.

Luckily for Sweden, Markström played some of his best hockey just before the Olympic break, giving some hope that he’s ready if called upon. The 36-year-old showed he can still have tide-turning sequences in a few of last year’s playoff games, and looked good in his last two games against Nashville and Columbus.

Trending downDarcy Kuemper, Canada
GoalieGP Since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

13

-7.31

.869

Kuemper hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s stellar numbers that made him a finalist for the Vezina Trophy, but he has been solid. He has looked calm and connected in the Los Angeles Kings’ crease, and rarely lets in leaky or soft goals.

The biggest difference this season is that Kuemper hasn’t made quite as many of the highlight-reel saves on the doorstep as he did a season ago, and the numbers bear that out. His .822 save percentage on high-danger shots is still above the league average (.810), but it’s well below the .862 number he led the NHL with on those chances last season.

Jake Oettinger, United States
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

12

-7.80

.864

With Hellebuyck’s injury and the Jets’ struggles, Oettinger had an opportunity to seize the starting job for the U.S., but he hasn’t been quite good enough to make himself the favorite heading into Milan.

Oettinger hasn’t been at the top of his game lately. It’s really just small details and angles. He’s typically excellent positionally, so it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s cleaned up on this stage. The Dallas Stars have given him goal support, and he has made some clutch saves, so he’s winning even when not at his absolute best.

As poor as the recent numbers are, Oettinger won six straight games for Dallas prior to the break.

Mads Søgaard, Denmark
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

2

-2.17

.833

After getting his shot in the NHL in 2022-23, Søgaard has spent the majority of the last three seasons in the AHL. He has made two appearances for Ottawa this season and gave up six goals on 36 shots. His numbers in the AHL are passable. With all of the issues the Senators have had in net, it’s a missed opportunity for the young, towering goalie.

To Søgaard’s credit, he’s clearly one of the three best Danish goalies and deserves his spot on the Olympic roster.

Kevin Lankinen, Finland
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

13

-8.48

.859

Lankinen has been up against it. He’s playing behind the worst team in hockey, the Vancouver Canucks, who struggle to score and don’t defend the slot very well. His poor statistics are a product of his environment more than his personal execution, but with five straight losses and 11 goals allowed in his last two starts, it’s hard to place Lankinen anywhere else on this list.

Juuse Saros, Finland
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

14

-11.05

.880

For a country with a rich, proud history of goaltending, it’s odd to see Finland entering these Olympics with as many questions as it has in goal. Based on the eye test, Saros is still one of the most dynamic goalies in the world. His skating and quickness in the crease are a treat to watch.

But the numbers don’t lie, and Saros’ numbers are bad. His minus-13 goals saved above expected rank 86th out of 91 goalies to play in the NHL this season, and he has allowed three or more goals in nine straight games.

He still has the highest ceiling amongst the Finnish goalies, so he’ll probably start for that reason alone, but Saros’ form entering the Olympics doesn’t inspire confidence.

Jordan Binnington, Canada
GoalieGP since 1/1GSAx since 1/1Save % since 1/1

8

-5.81

.850

Binnington was a hero for Canada in overtime of the gold-medal game at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and has a history of playing his best in big moments. He has also been statistically the worst goalie in the NHL this season.

Both are true, and it makes predicting what will happen in Milan nearly impossible.

Binnington’s .864 save percentage and minus-24.9 goals saved above expected are both career lows, and his recent form has been even uglier. The St. Louis Blues haven’t allowed 30 shots in any of Binnington’s last six starts, but he has allowed an average of four goals per game and lost all six. He is playing aggressively at the top of his crease, and is still typically good for a couple of jaw-dropping acrobatic saves every night, but that aggression also makes it tougher to stop second-chance opportunities. St. Louis has given up the third-most rebound goals in the NHL despite not allowing many rebounds.

Backup Joel Hofer has started more games for the Blues and put up better statistics than Binnington since mid-December. And yet, Binnington could be backstopping the most talented roster in the world this week in Italy, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he does it brilliantly.

(All stats via Natural Stat Trick and the NHL)