After beating Canada 3-1 during group play of the Four Nations Faceoff, you could make an argument for the United States to be considered the favourite to win gold in the final. But just five days later, in that same game, the United States could not get the job done, ultimately succumbing to Canada 3-2 in overtime. Almost a year later, that loss still stings. A lot.

But when the United States takes on Germany in the third of three group stage games, it will have been one year since their first game against Canada in that Four Nations tournament.

With that in mind, here’s the big question for the United States in this group stage: can they overcome the heartbreak quickly enough and ensure that the group stage ends with a full circle moment of sorts? Doing so could very well set the Americans up as the favourites to win gold at the men’s Olympic hockey tournament.

The big names to make the United States roster? Matthew and Brady Tkachuk.

Both brothers have made a name for themselves throughout their careers by being good goalscorers, physical forwards, and a thorn in any opponent’s side. While Matthew Tkachuk had only recently gotten back to playing following his recovery from surgery, he’s been scoring at roughly a point-per-game pace since his return. As for his brother, he’s had his own injury problems too. But like Matthew, Brady Tkachuk has been scoring at a point-per-game pace throughout the season, posting fourteen goals and twenty-two assists through thirty-five games played.

On defence, it’s Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski who stand out the most to me. Since Quinn Hughes made his debut for the Minnesota Wild, his team has gone on a 14-5-6 run to cement their hold on a top-three spot in the Central Division and make their case for Cup contention. Hughes has also been scoring at a rate slightly higher than that of a point-per-game pace; through his first twenty-five games with the Wild, Quinn Hughes has tallied thirty-two points.

Meanwhile, Zach Werenski is arguably enjoying one of his best seasons yet. While it remains to be seen if he can top his eighty-two point haul from last season, he does have sixty points through his first fifty games of the season. That’s a 1.2 points per game rate, which would put him on pace to just pass that eighty-two point tally from last year. With his Columbus Blue Jackets once again taking the form of playoff contenders, his performance is once again being seen as the biggest part of his team’s success. And like last year, Werenski’s efforts are once again being recognized; a spot on the American Olympic roster is a just reward for his dedication and efforts throughout his time with Columbus.

The goaltending department will remain largely unchanged from that of last year’s Four Nations lineup. Despite seeing a downturn in performance from last year to this year, Connor Hellebuyck will still enter this Olympics as a top goaltender. Even then, his .901 save percentage and his 2.75 goals against is relatively in line with some of the league averages. Elsewhere, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman will serve as capable backups for Connor Hellebuyck.

Talent isn’t the question for the United States

Names like Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk will be among the most-followed at the Winter Olympics, and rightfully so.

But the names that could decide the outcome of the tournament could very well lie deep within the depth charts; this is especially true for the United States.

In the forward group, names like Brock Nelson and Clayton Keller will be ones to watch. Since being traded to Colorado, Brock Nelson has been an important part of the Avalanche’s success. Through his first fifty-four games this year, he’s tallied forty-eight points (twenty-eight goals and twenty assists). He also recorded four assists during Colorado’s first round series against the Dallas Stars in last season’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Meanwhile, Clayton Keller has been at the forefront of the Utah Mammoth’s youth revolution, helping to give the team control over one of the Western Conference’s two Wild Card spots. He’s scoring at a point-per-game pace this season and he also put up ninety points over the course of his eighty-one games played last year.

If such players can continue to score at a rate similar to the ones seen at the club level, the United States should be able to field four strong forward lines, three strong defensive lines, and one formidable goaltending group.

There’s only one result that will feel acceptable for the United States

While Canada will have to put up with their new hockey rivals Czechia, the United States arguably has to face much tougher group stage opposition.

In Germany, the Americans won’t just have to put up with Leon Draisaitl. Ottawa Senators superstar Tim Stützle, who recently finished off a game against the Philadelphia Flyers with a nasty overtime goal, will also feature for Team Germany. JJ Peterka and Moritz Seider will also join Stützle, while Phillip Grubauer serves as a strong option in terms of goaltending.

Denmark’s roster will be led by the likes of Tampa Bay Lightning forward Oliver Bjorkstrand and veteran Lars Eller, while Mads Søgaard could be an underrated goaltending option.

Latvia won’t be any pushovers either. Two Florida Panthers players – Uvis Balinskis and Sandis Vilmanis – will make up part of the roster. Vancouver Canucks forward Teddy Blueger will represent his team in the Olympics, while ex-Vancouver Canucks goaltender Arturs Silovs will be in net for the Latvian entry.

This Group C could easily be the “Group of Death” at this Olympic hockey tournament; one could make a case for any of these four nations to make it to the quarterfinals directly.

I do think Group C will ultimately come down to Germany and the United States, who play each other on February 15th. Considering how deep their roster is, I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany topped the group. However, I am going to take the United States to win the group, but they won’t emerge unscathed.