Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:

Here are my picks for Thursday’s Olympic Hockey action that includes the opening games for Canada and Team USA.

Canada vs. Czech Republic

Canada (-2.5, -115) vs Czech Republic (+2.5, -105) – Total 6 (Over, -122)

10:30 a.m. ET

Canada will face a stiff challenge in their opening game on Thursday against the Czech Republic. Canada is stacked with superstars and enters as the clear Group A favorite and a top contender for gold overall. Sidney Crosby captains the team, with alternate captains Connor McDavid and Cale Makar. 

McDavid will center the Canadians’ top line with 19-year-old phenom, Macklin Celebrini (San Jose) and Tom Wilson (Washington). Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon centers the second line with Brandon Hagel (Tampa) and Sam Reinhart (Florida) on his wings. It’s Canada’s third line that stands out for me, with Sidney Crosby centering Mitch Marner and Mark Stone. That trio has the potential to both shut down the opposition’s top line as well as provide offense. 

Canada has been notoriously slow starters at the Olympics and other international tournaments, using the preliminary round more to figure out the best line combinations. It was at the 1988 Olympics that Czechia upset Canada in the semifinals, and Czechia’s young stars have sent Canada packing in each of the last three years at the World Junior Hockey Championships. The players are aware of that fact, and I expect them to pepper Czech goalie Lukas Dostal (Anaheim) with a ton of shots.

Czechia is a legitimate threat to challenge for a medal, potentially the third-best team in the tournament. I believe Czechia will be one of the four teams that will earn a first-round bye following the completion of the preliminary round. Czechia’s top line features three of the NHL’s best with David Pastrnak (Boston), Martin Necas (Colorado) and Tomas Hertl (Vegas) in the middle. Three of their blueliners are current NHLers and all their top six defensemen have NHL experience. 

In goal is where the Czech Republic have an advantage over Canada. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal and Utah’s Karl Vejmelka can steal a game or two. Jordan Binnington gets the start for Canada, and head coach Jon Cooper and his staff are hoping they get the Four Nations version of Binnington and not what we have seen from Binnington during the regular season with the St. Louis Blues.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Over 1.5 (-136) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+210) – .10 units
Tom Wilson anytime goal (+250) – .10 units
Brandon Hagel anytime goal (+360) – .10 units
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+190) – .10
Ondrej Palat anytime goal (+470) – .10 units
Dominik Kubalik anytime goal (+1100) – .05
Macklin Celebrini Canada’s leading point producer (+1400) – .10 units
Lukas Dostal Over Saves (waiting for a number to be posted) – 1 unit

Germany vs. Denmark

Germany (-1.5, -112) vs Denmark (+1.5, -112) – Total 5.5 (Over, +120)

3:00 p.m. ET

Germany is powered up front by Leon Drasaitl (Edmonton) and Tim Stutzle (Ottawa), along with defenseman Moritz Seider (Detroit) and goaltender Philipp Grubauer (Seattle). Nikolaj Ehlers (Carolina) and Lars Eller (Ottawa) make up two-thirds of Denmark’s top line. Neither player is on the level of Germany’s best. Denmark’s blueline is also void of NHL defensemen, and that will put more pressure on goalie Freddie Andersen (Carolina), who will need to be Denmark’s best player for them to have a chance to win any games, let alone advance to the medal round. His last three NHL starts found him on the wrong end of a 4-3 result, and all three went past regulation. 

The draw is a possibility in this game and worth a sprinkle, but I feel most confident that Germany can put up a four-spot on Freddie. Like most of these games in the preliminary round, I will be player prop heavy. Dominik Kahun joins Leon Draisaitl on the top line for Germany and will also see time on the second power play unit. His goal prop (+400) is too good for me to pass up. Tim Stutzle has four goals in 10 career games against Andersen. He comes into the tournament on a five-game goal streak and goals in nine of his last 12 NHL games. Defenseman Moritz Seider could easily play half the game and at (+325) to score, so sign me up.

Four players on Denmark intrigue me as players who could find the back of the net. Joachim Blichfeld and Lars Eller (Ottawa) make up two-thirds of the top line alongside Nikolaj Ehlers (Carolina). Ehlers has value (+280 anytime goal), but Blichfeld and Eller are both more than 4/1 to find the back of the net. Oliver Bjorkstrand (Tampa) and Patrick Russell are playing on the second and third lines, respectively, but both are on the top power play unit.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Germany Team Total Over 3.5 (+105) – 1 unit
Dominik Kahun anytime goal (+400) – .05 units
Tim Stutzle anytime goal (+180) – .10 units
Moritz Seider anytime goal (+325) – .05
Joachim Blichfeld anytime goal (+500) – .05 units
Lars Eller anytime goal (+450) – .05 units
Oliver Bjorkstrand anytime goal (+375) – .05 units
Patrick Russell anytime goal (+500) – .05 units

United States vs. Latvia    

United States (-3.5, -148) vs Latvia (+3.5, +124) – Total 6.5 (Over, -130)

3:00 p.m. ET

The Latvia versus U.S. men’s hockey matchup kicks off the preliminary round for both teams in Group C. Latvia is going to have to rely heavily on their goalies, Elvis Merzlikins (Columbus) and Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh). Merzlikins has turned things around in Columbus since Rick Bowness took over as head coach. Latvia will need his heroics if they have any chance of defeating Team USA. 

The United States boasts one of the deepest rosters in the tournament. Team USA features elite scorers Auston Matthews (Toronto), Matt Boldy (Minnesota), Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay) and Tage Thompson (Buffalo) up front with Quinn Hughes (Minnesota) and Zach Werenski (Columbus) on the back end. Like Canada, goaltending is a mild concern for the United States. Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) was in the starter’s net at practice on Monday, so I would expect him to get the call for game one against Latvia. With a strong defense in front of him and Latvia being thin on offense, all he needs to do is make the first save.  

I don’t see value in playing the spread for either team, and I don’t like the full game Over, as I could easily see Latvia being limited to one goal, maybe they get two. I am going all player props in this game. Tage Thompson has five goals in three career NHL games against Latvia goalie Elvis Merzlikins, while Matt Boldy has found the back of the net twice in his five career games against Elvis. Boldy is on the USA top line and second power play unit. His goal prop at (+210) is worth a wager. Zach Werenski’s 20 goals this season are second among all NHL defensemen and he will see time on the power play. On the Latvian side, Teddy Blueger (Vancouver) has five goals in 10 NHL games this season. He is slated to center his country’s second line and second power play unit. His goal prop is currently available at Bet365. Note that his first name is listed as Teodors.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Tage Thompson anytime goal (+190) – .20 units
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+210) – .10 units
Zach Werenski anytime goal (+360) – .10 units
Teddy Blueger anytime goal (+600) – .05 units