The Edmonton Oilers are scoring five-on-five goals this season at the same rate as last year. Still, the team is allowing far more the other way (2.78 goals against per 60 in 2025-26 compared to 2.52 GA/60 in 2024-25), and all attempts to suppress the opposition have been unsuccessful. This includes two new goaltenders and a shuffle on defence.

The drop in production coincides with a drop in offence from the third and fourth lines. More alarming is a dive in five-on-five goals when captain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are on the ice together in the game state. A quick playoff exit is possible based on the Oilers’ pre-Olympic performance.

Expect an expensive deadline deal in an effort to add a scoring winger to the skill lines. There was an opportunity to audition youth on the skill lines this season, but that opportunity is gone, and it could affect this organization’s ability to remain competitive in the future. If Edmonton continues to eschew elevating youth, a complete rebuild may be necessary in the years to come.

Rookie winger Ike Howard started the year in Edmonton, was sent to the AHL Bakersfield Condors, recalled and then sent down again. The organization would like him to work on his play away from the puck, but as the deadline nears, Howard’s offence from the minors is screaming for a call-up. Will his impact AHL season get noticed by Edmonton’s management?

The offensive splits

The first and second lines are performing about as expected year-over-year, but McDavid with Draisaitl has lost its previous dominance this season, while the depth lines have slipped significantly. For the Oilers, any line containing McDavid, Draisaitl or both should be considered a skill line. Here’s the tale of the tape, with the various permutations’ goals per 60 at five-on-five.

Via Natural Stat Trick

The third and fourth lines are off by almost half a goal per 60 minutes, effectively making the Oilers an ordinary offensive team overall. Draisaitl solo is having a massive year; McDavid solo is about the same as one year ago.

McDavid and Draisaitl together are shockingly off the pace, and that’s a new wrinkle offensively. The last time the duo posted a number this poor was 2021-22, suggesting the magic wand of the top trio (McDavid, Draisaitl and Zach Hyman) is no longer viable. That trio scored 6.04 goals per 60 at five-on-five in 2024-25, but is at just 3.09 (almost half) this year.

Finding a new nuclear option without Hyman may be the path forward. Could Howard help in the last months of the season? He can’t score NHL goals from Bakersfield.

The AHL resume

Howard is dominating with the Condors, scoring 12 goals, 18 assists and 30 points in 22 games. Most of those points (10-14-24) came at even strength, where he pushes the results on the team’s top line. His goal differential at even strength (31-17, 65 percent) suggests he is learning the two-way side of the game management, identified as an area for improvement.

Howard’s offensive numbers stand out across the league among AHL rookies. Here are the top five forwards in points per game so far this year:

PlayerNHL TeamPoints-Game

Oilers

1.35

Oilers

1.05

Blackhawks

1

Sharks

0.87

Mammoth

0.85

The Oilers organization is notorious for slow-playing young prospects. The memory of offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway serves as a painful reminder for the fan base. Matt Savoie spent most of a season in the AHL before getting his shot in the NHL this season, and it looks like management has decided Howard will get the same treatment this year.

Which is fine … if the team is scoring enough to outrun goals surrendered. The first half of the year has been devoted to suppressing the opponent, through playing veterans over youth and using low-percentage offensive strategies like the stretch pass. It isn’t working.

Howard is posting quality minor-league numbers in five-on-five scoring and goal differential. Looking past the team’s top offensive prospect at a time when an offensive surge is required is a choice. However, with another winger likely added at the deadline to jump-start the offence, perhaps it’s time to give Howard a chance to show what he can do on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl.

Skill loves skill

The criticisms of Howard surround shaky play without the puck. In 273 five-on-five minutes with the Oilers, his goal differential (8-14, 36 percent) was poor. However, if we break down those minutes, we find Howard’s offensive acumen rose with the quality of his linemates. When playing with McDavid, he posted one goal in 29 minutes, and he had a goal and an assist in 10 minutes with Draisaitl. That’s terrific in a small sample and proves skill loves skill. With McDavid, his goal differential was 2-3, and with Draisaitl, it was 2-0.

There’s no way anyone can argue Howard has enjoyed a full shot this season on an NHL skill line. He played fewer than 40 minutes with McDavid, Draisaitl or both, and just a few minutes with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. His most common centre was Jack Roslovic (4-4 goal differential, 51 percent expected goals rate), and that’s a possibility should he get another shot this season.

The idea that McDavid or Draisaitl should not be paired with a rookie winger runs contrary to experience. Drake Caggiula, a college winger like Howard, posted 5.34 goals per 60 with the captain and 5.94 with Draisaitl as a rookie in 2016-17. Jesse Puljujarvi posted 3.18 goals per 60 with McDavid in 2017-18. Kailer Yamamoto romped to 4.44 goals per 60 with Draisaitl in 2019-20.

Howard after the deadline

If the Oilers make a deal at the deadline that blocks Howard, the organization will be repeating the path that led Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets. It will also represent a complete shutout of general manager Stan Bowman’s 2025 summer bets on wingers thought to be possible solutions on the skill lines: Howard, Andrew Mangiapane and Trent Frederic.

At some point, the organization has to get on the same page. The list of skilled talent deemed unsuitable by the coaching staff since the spring of 2024 includes the list above, married to names like Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, all of whom were found wanting.

The difference between Howard and all of the other forwards listed here? Howard is still waiting for an opportunity to show what he can deliver. The AHL numbers are outrageous, and his NHL minutes with high-end skill suggest he can move the needle offensively.

The Oilers appear destined to mortgage more of the future — their next available first-round pick is 2027; it will almost certainly go at the deadline — as well as delaying the official start of Howard’s career.

For a team interested in adding youth last summer, the fading of Howard this season has been a curious development. If the organization won’t commit to Howard when there’s a clear need for exactly what he brings, the trade that sent Sam O’Reilly to Tampa Bay Lightning for Howard seems like a misstep. O’Reilly is a two-way centre with grit, a far better match for the Knoblauch coaching staff.

From a distance, it appears management and coaching staff are not on the same page.