After over a decade of pain, the Sabres are the closest they’ve ever been to ending the drought. All that time has been building up to the coming two-month stretch after the Olympic break.
I’ve already made a post about my proposed deadline moves. In summary, say goodbye to Colten Ellis, Jacob Bryson, Maxim Strbak, and a 3rd round pick, and hello to Morgan Barron, Nick Blankenburg and a 5th rounder. Working off that roster, there’s still a lot to do in the offseason.
In this fanpost, I’ll be going over the moves I’d like to make in what looks to be a very busy offseason for Jarmo.
Objectives
(1) Figure out the long-term futures of Tuch and Byram and replace them if necessary. Do they want to stay, and if they do, on what terms? If they don’t want to stay on reasonable terms, they need to go. If they do leave, it’s important to use either the trade itself or the extra asset flexibility from their departure to get immediate help, while also ideally getting a good long-term return with picks and/or prospects.
(2) Strengthen NHL roster depth: The Sabres’ 4th line and 3rd pairing have been problems for most of the season and need to be improved upon if the Sabres want to continue their success and not burn out their top players.
(3) Balance out the prospect pool: The Sabres’ prospect pool is extremely defense-heavy and has a lot of prospects due to either be signed or losing waiver eligibility soon. Getting some more forwards, especially playmakers, would help even things out, as well as identifying prospects with longer development and signing timelines.
The Draft
At the draft, the Sharks are up to pick, likely somewhere around #18. But instead of former Sabre Mike Grier walking to the podium, it’s a different bald man entirely: Jarmo Kekalainen! What could have happened? Of course, A TRADE!
To BUF: LHD Shakir Mukhamadullin, LW Quentin Musty, LHD Haoxi Wang, 2026 1st (SJS)
To SJS: LHD Bowen Byram (with extension), LHD Ryan Johnson
Bowen Byram has been excellent this season, but he has one year left on his contract and given how the last round of negotiations went, I don’t think he wants to stay long-term. If he does, he’s worth keeping, but for this scenario, which I think is also most likely in real life, he wants a bigger role and more money than he’d get in Buffalo.
As for the return, here’s hoping the Sabres’ Shakir can be half as good as the Bills’ version. Name jokes aside, Mukhamadullin has been a solid physical presence and puck mover on the 3rd pair, and he’s actually scored at a 12-goal, 30-point pace this season, though he’s very unlikely to hit either due to missing games earlier in the year. He’s a nice piece with some second-pairing potential, but I’m not counting on him to replace Byram by himself.
Quentin Musty is the rare winger with a power forward frame (6’2”, 201) who also has an exceptional eye for a pass. His stats are more fine than good in the AHL this year given the expectations, but he’s still producing at a second-line rate (.75 PPG). He probably needs another year or two in the AHL to improve his shot and get used to the physicality of the pro game, but that’s actually a benefit with how stacked the Sabres’ roster currently is. Being from Hamburg is also a minor bonus, especially with the draft at home.
Haoxi Wang is a hulking defenseman at 6’6” who came to Canada from China as a teenager, so he still has a lot of developing to do. Not only is he physical, but he’s also a far better skater than he should be. His offense is still very much a work in progress, but has already improved quite a bit in the OHL (2 points in 32 games last year to 19 in 39 this year). He’s also going to college at the end of the season, so he’ll have plenty of time to continue his development.
The Sharks don’t have the Sabres’ cap issues, and if anything are potentially in danger of not hitting the cap floor. That means Byram can sign a very lucrative extension and be San Jose’s #1 defenseman of today and (assuming Dickinson keeps progressing) their #2 defenseman of tomorrow, a role for which Byram is an excellent fit, just ask Dahlin. They also have more wing prospects than they know what to do with and 2 1st round picks this draft, so they’re willing to part with Musty and one of their 1st rounders. Losing Haoxi Wang hurts, but Ryan Johnson has a real chance of playing in the NHL next season, as even with the Byram acquisition, they’ll only have 3 NHL defensemen signed for next season. Johnson may have been passed on the Sabres’ depth chart, but I still really like his skating and decision-making, and a change of scenery may be what he needs.
Once the din of the crowd dies down, Jarmo announces that the Sabres have selected:
C/LW Ryan Roobroeck, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL)
Roobroeck is very much a boom-or-bust pick. While he is a 6’3” forward with an excellent shot and good offensive awareness, there are reasons why he’s not a top-10 pick like those tools would imply. There are concerns about his lack of physicality and defensive effort, not unlike a prior Jarmo draft pick, Dmitri Voronkov, who’s had his ups and downs, but mostly ups, at the NHL level. Still, with the Sabres’ pipeline as full as it is, now is a very good time to take a shot on a high-ceiling player, and Roobroeck’s ceiling isn’t much below Tage’s.
And as for their original first round pick, which I project to be somewhere around pick #24, the Buffalo Sabres will select –
C/RW Simas Ignavitius, Geneva-Servette (SUI)
Would it be a Jarmo draft if he didn’t go at least a little off the board in the first round? Ignavitius is considered a second-rounder by most, including our own draft guru T. McGee, but I could see Jarmo loving his size (he’s 6’3”), skating, and savvy, especially without the puck. Ignavitius’ offense has been limited, and the question is how much of that is him and how much is his coach only giving an 18-year-old a few minutes per game in a professional league? Jarmo bets on the latter and takes a shot on him. Ryan McLeod’s contract is up in three years, and that probably lines up with Ignavitius’ NHL readiness.
Entry-Level Contracts
LW Stiven Sardarian, 2 years/950k AAV
After a rough first couple years in America, the St. Petersburg (not the one in Florida) native has been excellent at Michigan Tech, with 73 points in 65 games over the last two seasons, even getting some Hobey Baker love. If those numbers didn’t make it obvious, he’s a very slick playmaker, even if his shot isn’t anything to write home about (only 22 of those 73 points are goals). Since the Sabres’ top two centers for the foreseeable future are both primarily goalscorers, getting playmaking wingers in the system is important, which is why I signed Sardarian and traded for Musty, as the Sabres don’t currently have anyone in Rochester who fits that role, and only one player in Buffalo who does in Zach Benson, maybe two if Ostlund sticks at wing.
RW Jake Richard, 2 years/$950k AAV
Richard has had a bit of a slow season compared to last year where he was over a point per game, but he is still producing at a first-line level and has a ton of potential as a power winger. I want him signed this offseason instead of risking free agency if he went back to UConn for his senior year.
RHD Gavin McCarthy, 2 years/$950k AAV
McCarthy has been an extremely steady player for Boston University. As he is from Clarence, I’m less worried about him not signing and more believe that he’s maxed out his development in three years of college and want to get him used to the professional game. He needs at least a year in Rochester before he’s ready to play for the Sabres, but I like his chances of getting to be at least a 7th defenseman in the NHL, even with the Sabres’ crammed pipeline.
LHD Patrick Geary, 2 years/$925k AAV
Geary is also a straightforward defenseman from WNY like McCarthy, if not quite as good. Still, he’s been a contributor each of his three years at Michigan State, even if his offense has plateaued a bit. His intelligence, especially in his own end, gives him a chance professionally, even if I’m guessing he’ll be a career AHL’er.
G Ryerson Leenders, 3 years/$900k AAV
Leenders was effectively an afterthought as a 7th-round pick, but he’s improved his save percentage every year in the OHL and deserves a professional shot. Given the Sabres’ glut of young goalies, he will very likely start in the ECHL.
Players not given entry-level deals: C Gustav Karlsson, LW William von Barnekow-Lofberg
RFA’s
Before we get to the Sabres’ own RFA’s, Jarmo drops a miniature bomb on the league with an OFFER SHEET
LW Pavel Dorofeyev (Vegas) 5 years/$7 million AAV
Vegas has about $13 million to sign six players this offseason. Paying Dorofeyev $7 million would make that difficult, so Jarmo takes a shot. While I think this could be accepted and not matched, I don’t think it’s likely. First, because the compensation is only a 1st and a 3rd, far less than Dorofeyev is worth (even if he’s not actually worth $7 million AAV), and second, because the cap doesn’t actually exist for Vegas so they’ll just pay him anyway and stash half the team on LTIR until the playoffs to stay cap compliant.
I’m operating under the assumption that the Sabres DO NOT get Dorofeyev. If they do, then Zucker likely would have to be traded for cap and roster balancing reasons.
LW Zach Benson, 7 years/$6.1 million AAV
I love Zach Benson. He’s right there with Dahlin for both the smartest player and best passer on the team, and he does it while annoying opponents in a stunning variety of ways. Benson has his limitations (namely shooting and straight-line speed), but there are few situations he can’t get out of using some combination of his brain and the Matterhorn-sized chip on his shoulder.
He gets a bit less money than Doan due to his lesser production, but more than Jackson Blake, who somehow signed for 8 years at just over $5 million.
RHD Michael Kesselring, 2 years/$2.2 million AAV
This has been very much a lost season for Kesselring, so he gets a bridge deal, giving up a year of UFA for a raise of almost a million that frankly his play hasn’t warranted this season. I think a full offseason of recovery will do wonders for him, but as you’ll see, I don’t yet trust him to be a fixture on the Sabres’ top two pairings.
C/LW Peyton Krebs, 2 years/$2 million AAV
While Krebs hasn’t lived up to his hype as a top-20 draft pick, he’s carved out a useful role for himself on the Sabres, as a fourth-line stalwart occasionally capable of playing up, and as an empty-net specialist. He gets a raise to reflect his improved play.
LHD Zac Jones, 2 years/$950k AAV
Zac Jones has been fantastic this season in the AHL, scoring over a point per game. He deserves another NHL shot, even if he wouldn’t be playing every night with how the Sabres’ defense corps looks.
LHD Nikita Novikov, 1 year/$925k
Novikov hasn’t progressed as fast as I’d hoped, but his physical upside and uptick in his goalscoring earn him what will be his last contract in Rochester. Whether that’s because he tops out at this level or because the next one will be NHL-only, we’ll have to see. This is also Novikov’s final season being waivers-exempt.
C/LW Trevor Kuntar, 2 years/$850k AAV
The Buffalo native has scored at just about half a point per game in the AHL and even got an NHL call up for a game this season. Since Kuntar’s point production has doubled from last season in fewer games, he deserves a couple years to potentially prove himself. I think he’s likely just an Amerk, but who knows?
RW Olivier Nadeau, 1 year/$850k
After lighting up the ECHL last year, Nadeau has been decidedly fine in Rochester this season. He gets one more year to prove himself.
RFA’s not qualified: LHD Isaac Beliveau
UFA’s
I’ll start by saying that I’m not re-signing Alex Tuch. He’s been instrumental the last few years, but there’s no way on Earth I would pay that much money to a player his age who’s only got one season scoring over one point per game and who’s also already shown some pretty severe regression on the penalty kill this season in terms of shots & chances allowed (he is still a great shorthanded scoring threat). Since Tuch isn’t going to budge on money nor term, I think Jarmo should use him the way he did Bob & Panarin when they left the Jackets, as de facto rentals. With that out of the way, here are the UFA’s I would sign:
RHD Nick Blankenburg, 3 years/$3.5 million AAV
Blankenburg gets a nice pay raise and some stability. He’s a defenseman who plays much bigger than his listed 5’9” size (especially on the penalty kill) and is also more than capable with the puck on his stick. In the long term, In the long-term I expect the spot next to Owen Power to go to either Radim Mrtka or Adam Kleber, but since I think both of them are probably 3 years away from being ready for top-4 minutes, Blankenburg should do an admirable job next to his old college teammate in the meantime.
W Ilya Mikheyev, 2 years/$3.75 million AAV
As much fun as Beck Malenstyn is to watch, Mikheyev is a substantial upgrade. He’s a better skater, penalty killer, and is also far better with the puck on his stick. Is this an overpay for a fourth liner? Yes, though Mikheyev isn’t just being paid for his solid 5-on-5 possession and (for his role) offensive numbers; he’s also being paid to take Tuch’s role on the top penalty-killing unit.
G Laurent Brossoit, 1 year/$1 million
The young goalies in Rochester need a mentor, and Brossoit can definitely do that, as well as playing a few NHL games if needed.
C/LW Josh Dunne, 2 years/$975k AAV
Dunne has definitely earned himself an extension with his physical play and surprisingly good possession numbers; I just hope he clears waivers if they become necessary.
C/LW Jake Leschyshyn, 1 year/$900k
Jake L. (not spelling his last name again) has been solid this season in Rochester and is retained to mentor the torrent of youngsters coming through the pipeline.
LHD Gavin Bayreuther, 2 years/$900k AAV
One of Jarmo’s guys from back in Columbus. It will be his job to mentor many of the RHD in the Sabres’ pipeline, which in 2026-27 means he will likely partner Gavin McCarthy.
C Matteo Constantini, 2 years/$850k AAV (AHL only)
The Saint Catherine’s native has torn up the ECHL and been ok in his short stint in Rochester. His performance in the ECHL earns him an Amerks contract, and maybe even a Sabres one at some point, though I wouldn’t bet on it.
RHD Jake Livingstone, 1 year/$850k (AHL only)
Some veteran defensive depth for Rochester. Livingstone hasn’t quite lived up to his college promise, especially with his offense, but is still a 6’4” puck mover who will be just fine on the Amerks.
UFA’s not Signed: RW Alex Tuch, LW Beck Malenstyn
Buyouts
Bought out: LW Jordan Greenway
With only one year left on his contract, the Sabres only need to pay Greenway $1.33 million this season and next. I’d rather do that than give up draft capital or prospects in a trade. Hopefully Greenway finds a way to stop himself from having glass bones and paper skin, because I think there’s still a player in there somewhere, even if the injuries mean he may never fully emerge.
Trades
To BUF: 2027 2nd
To SEA: Rights to RW Alex Tuch
This is like the Marner for Roy trade last year right before free agency. Seattle pays a little extra to get exclusive rights to Tuch and the extra year on the contract. Seattle has 3 2nd’s in 2027, and the Sabres will get the worst one.
To BUF: 2028 6th
To EDM: RW/C Justin Danforth
Edmonton needs cheap forwards and Buffalo needs to clear out a roster spot.
To BUF: RW Jordan Kyrou
To STL: RW Jack Quinn, G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, W Isak Rosen, RHD Vsevolod Komarov
I was never going to rely on Doan to replace Tuch by himself. Kyrou may not be the penalty killer Tuch is, but he is an excellent skater with a long history of production. He’s had a down season this year like the rest of his St. Louis teammates, but three 30-goal seasons in the three years before this one speak for themselves. Not to mention that he’s also a very good playmaker, with at least 34 assists in the past five seasons. His contract is roughly $2-$2.5 million less than Tuch’s and only goes for 5 years, meaning he should only regress a bit by its end relative to Tuch’s regression at the end of an 8-year contract.
Quinn is a worse version of Kyrou (albeit with a smaller gap this season), with UPL and the promise of Rosen helping to make up for the still-substantial gap between the two players. UPL has had a great bounceback season and would immediately be the Blues’ best goaltender, but I’d rather keep Levi and Lyon, as Levi won’t be waiver-exempt any longer. I also think Lyon would be willing to extend for another couple years. Rosen is a good prospect, but with Ostlund, Kulich, and Helenius ahead of him, I don’t think he has a route to top-nine playing time in Buffalo. I think he will get NHL time next year in St. Louis as their rebuild continues. Komarov is also crowded out of the Sabres’ RHD pipeline, but outside of the promising Adam Jiricek, the Blues have very few RHD prospects.
Potential Opening Night Lineups
Rochester
Dunne-Helenius-Musty
Kuntar-Wahlberg-Meyer
Jake L.-Schultz-Sardaryan
Nadeau-Constantini-Richard
Novikov-Metsa
Bayreuther-McCarthy
Geary-Rathbone
Brossoit, Ratzlaff
Extras: Geertsen, Kopff, Livingstone, Leinonen (ECHL), Leenders (ECHL)
Buffalo
Benson-Tage-Doan
Ostlund-Norris-Kyrou
Kulich-McLeod-Zucker
Krebs-Barron-Mikheyev
Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Blankenburg
Mukhamadullin-Kesselring
Lyon, Levi
Extras: Kozak, Timmins, Jones
Cap Hit: $100.1/$104 million
Conclusion
This is another strong Sabres team, and a less top-heavy one, with the Amerks also looking like contenders. There’s enough cap space to add at the deadline if needed for a serious push, but also prospects in Rochester who are more than ready if called upon, namely Konsta Helenius.
They should be a playoff team, hopefully in a less insane Atlantic Division. For a “normal” NHL team, I would absolutely trade Tuch at the deadline, but breaking the drought far is too important, even if the return for him in this scenario was pretty minimal compared to his value. Byram got a haul, albeit a longer-term one, where Tuch was replaced by a comparable player in Kyrou.
Rochester looks very good too, especially the forward corps. The prospect pipeline now has a little bit of everything, though it’s still defense-focused with Mrtka, Wang, Osburn, Kleber, Bedkowski, and Laberge all arriving between 2027 & 2029. Those defensemen are now joined in the pipeline by some formidable forwards in Musty, Roobroeck, Ignavitius, and late-round surprises from last year Ryan Rucinski and Melvin Novotny.
How do you think I did? What would you do differently in terms of objectives, signings, trades, etc.? Let me know in the comments.