You may not be able to make the playoffs in October, but you can certainly miss them. The Pittsburgh Penguins were able to at least avoid that with their 8-2-2 start through the first month of the season, building up a nice cushion in the standings and giving themselves some wiggle room for the rest of the way. It might not seem like a lot, but it is. Points are incredibly difficult to make up the deeper into the season you go, and even a four-or five-point advantage in January or February is significant. That is why you see so many teams only a couple of points out of the playoff picture start selling.

As of Wednesday, the Penguins sit in the second playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division with a 102.5 points pace for the season. Just about every piece of objective data we have to measure teams and their play suggests that this is a pretty good hockey team. It is also one that should have raised its expectations for the season to, at the very least, earning a playoff spot.

It is right there in front of them. It is within reach. So how many more wins do the Penguins need over their next 26 games to secure a playoff spot?

At the moment, that largely depends on which playoff spot you are looking at because there are two different cut-off lines for what it might take.

The lower of the two is for a spot in the top-three of the Metropolitan Division playoff race.

The New York Islanders are currently the No. 3 playoff spot in the Metropolitan with 69 points in 58 games. That is a points percentage of .595 and a pace for 97.5 points over the full season.

The Boston Bruins currently hold the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with 69 points in 57 games. That is a points percentage of .605 and a current points pace of 99.2 points over the full season.

In both cases the Penguins are currently on a pace that would see them finish above that.

There is also a gap starting to form with the teams below the Islanders and Bruins.

Let’s just take a look at the Metropolitan Division at the moment and the current points paces for every team below the Penguins.

Pittsburgh Penguins: 70 points in 56 games ( .625 points percentage, 102.5 points pace)New York Islanders: 69 points in 58 games (.592 points percentage, 97.5 points pace)Columbus Blue Jackets: 65 points in 56 games (.580 points percentage, 95.1 points pace)Washington Capitals: 65 points in 59 games (.551 points percentage, 90.3 points pace)Philadelphia Flyers: 61 points in 56 games (.545 points percentage, 89.3 points pace)New Jersey Devils: 58 points in 57 games (.509 points percentage, 83.4 points pace)New York Rangers: 50 points in 57 games (.439 points percentage, 71.9 points pace)

If we are being realistic about this, the teams below Columbus in the Metropolitan Division are facing pretty big climbs. Even though the Capitals are within five points, they have played three extra games than the Penguins and Blue Jackets. That matters. A lot. Just look at how low their current points pace is compared to the Penguins, Islanders and even the Blue Jackets.

Even the Islanders at just one point back of the Penguins have played two extra games.

This is probably (emphasis on probably) a three-team race between the Penguins, Islanders and Blue Jackets for those two Metropolitan Division spots.

Given those paces, let’s just say 98 points gets you into the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division. That is 28 more points for the Penguins. That is 14 wins in 26 games, or come combination of wins and overtime/shootout losses that equals 28 points.

Or another way to look at it: It is only a .538 points percentage the rest of the way.

They are, again, at .625 so far this season.

Only three teams (Florida, New Jersey and the New York Rangers) have a points percentage lower than .538 for the season to this point. That is not a very high bar to reach. Another angle on what that looks like: The Penguins full-season points percentages in their past three non-playoff seasons were .488, .537 and .555. A .538 points percentage in the era of three-point games is simply not that high of a bar.

In order to get to 100 points they would need 15 wins, or some combination of wins and overtime/shootout defeats that equal 30 points.

That is a .576 points percentage the rest of the way. A little bit of a higher bar to reach, but again, it is very much within reach.

The biggest issue the Penguins are going to have is the fact their March schedule is positively brutal.

Here are the opponents they have remaining the rest of the way in alphabetical order: Boston (two times), Buffalo, Carolina (three times), Colorado (two times), Dallas, Detroit, Florida (two times), New Jersey (two times), New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, St. Louis Blues, Utah Mammoth, Vegas Golden Knights (two times), Washington Capitals (two times), Winnipeg Jets.

Brutal. Absolutely brutal.

Half of their remaining games are against teams currently in a playoff position, including several games against some of the top teams in the league (Colorado two times, Carolina three times, and Dallas). Florida might be out of the playoff race at this point, but two games against them with a healthy Matthew Tkachcuk will not be easy. Washington is still, in theory, lurking around. Those Boston games could be significant.

If there is a positive to take away from that it is that the Penguins have done a strong job still accumulating points against potential playoff teams. In 23 games this season against teams currently in a playoff position, the Penguins are 11-6-6, which comes out to a points percentage of .608, a pace that is far above what they need to do the rest of the way.

If you limit that to just teams in the top-10 of the league standings (they have played games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo and Boston — all teams in the top-10 in the league by points percentage) they are 8-4-2 in those games. That is a .642 points percentage. So they have more than handled their business against playoff teams and the top teams in the league.

That does not mean it will continue the rest of the way. Especially with a condensed schedule against some of the best teams every single night. It is at least a sign that they are capable of doing it. It is, again, another example of them raising the expectations for this season through their play and results. If they can just play a little above .500 the rest of the way and get to that 98-100 point mark at a minimum, the playoffs should be theirs. That is what they need.