First Look at Potential Matchups for the NCAA Tournament
by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor (@chn-adam-wodon)
I’ve been writing these NCAA Tournament analysis articles for decades now, and over the years, they’ve become increasingly routine.
That’s largely because the makeup of what was the Pairwise became more and more straightforward over the years.
And now, with the move to NPI, the algorithm is entirely straightforward.
For better or worse (and a few coaches, but not most, have said it’s worse), the NPI is the sole criterion now for determining NCAA Tournament selection and seeding. In the past, the RPI was only one component, though it took on an increasingly-dominant role.
Looking at the old Pairwise and what it would be now under last year’s construction, and comparing it to the NPI, there is very little difference. The biggest thing I can find is that for the teams that play “weaker” schedules, the NPI is valuing their actual record a bit more, giving some teams a spot or two boost. But that’s not a universal statement.
So, what I used to call Bracket ABCs (Analysis, Breakdown, Comparison) is useless terminology. “Bracketology” is a term ESPN invented over 20 years ago and everyone else stole. So we’ll just go with Bracket Breakdown from now on. Because, again, it’s all pretty straightforward.
Anyone can take a look at the NPI these days and tell you what’s going on, assuming they have any awareness of college hockey’s system, which most of our readers do these days. It’s not hard whatsover to look at the NPI yourself and get an idea of what the final bracket will be.
Of course I’ve always said that doing so is a somewhat futile exercise when the season does not, in fact, end today, and so today’s NPI will not be the final one. So in the past, I’ve tried to focus on the quirks that could drastically shift the Pairwise over the final few weeks, because in many cases, there was often the potential for chaos.
None of those quirks exist anymore, so in that regard, there’s nothing much to do, and “what would happen if things ended today” is a slightly more useful exercise, at least.
So let’s take a look, and then see if there’s any potential quirks to at least consider.
Albany, N.Y.
1. Michigan State vs. 16. Atlantic champ
8. Minnesota Duluth vs. 10. Cornell
Loveland, Colo.
2. Michigan vs. 15. CCHA champ
7. Quinnipiac vs. 9. Denver
Sioux Falls, S.D.
3. North Dakota vs. 14. Connecticut
6. Providence vs. 11. Dartmouth
Worcester, Mass.
4. Western Michigan vs. 13. Wisconsin
5. Penn State vs. 12. Boston College
So the quirks are going to come into play with placement. The Committee has some discretion over what to do with that in certain situations. And, rightfully so, attendance is part of that consideration, though it shouldn’t be tinkered to the point where it comes too unfair.
First off, a decision will need to be made where to put the No. 1 seeds. Everything else flows from there. None of the Regionals are near Michigan, so then what? I think leaving Sioux Falls open for North Dakota makes logical sense. It’s no skin off Michigan/Michigan State’s back to go elsewhere.
So when deciding upon the other three, it makes sense to have Michigan State in Albany.
Another thing to consider is that Denver is hosting in Loveland, so has to be there. So with Denver currently sitting around the 8-9-10 range, it means it would be matched up against the 1 or 2 overall seed, normally. The Committee doesn’t have to be beholden to that, but it most likely will try to do that. Thus, putting Michigan in Loveland.
That leaves Western Michigan for Worcester.
So, things would fall in from there, though I can already hear the squawking about Boston College being in Worcester. Personally, I’ve never thought that was a big deal. It’s one hour from Boston and BC doesn’t tend to have droves of fans going out to see them.
It definitely would be weird with three New England schools in that Sioux Falls Regional, so maybe the Committee would shuffle things around, but we’ll see.
It’s become less likely in recent weeks that the CCHA will get two teams in the tournament, but with all those CCHA teams hanging on the bubble, it’s possible.
And, again, there are more games to play, so things will shuffle around. But this should give you a sense of what’s on the road ahead.