The latest trade made yesterday by the Penguins to acquire Samuel Girard for Brett Kulak was right up the wheelhouse of what Kyle Dubas has been doing for a while now. It’s another move at incremental improvement, flipping a player recently acquired for a younger replacement, while adding another second round draft pick to the already flush war chest of future draft picks.
It’s a move rooted in salary cap space, showing how leverage works in the NHL these days. When a team has significant cap space, they can create opportunities, as Pittsburgh did to take on Girard’s $5.0 million cap hit next season. If a team doesn’t have cap space, they usually pay to get some, which Colorado did by sending that draft pick to complete the deal.
In the short-term, the interesting aspect will be the change of styles for the Pens in going from Kulak to Girard. Dubas, clearly, is betting that there won’t be a step-back in that regard.
“Brett came in and really played good hockey for us the last two-plus months,” Dubas wrote in an email to media members, a favored way for him to control every word of the messaging. “He was able to play in all situations and help our team play very good hockey. We view Sam as someone with similar playoff experience, who was signed for an additional season and that can help to continue to help our team as we push down the stretch here.”
Girard will be a fascinating case study for how much he can live up to that expectation. Under the hood, he’s long been a player admired by advanced stats due to his puck skills.
Lately, however, Girard’s career has downshifted with Colorado. In the past three seasons he’s been in the 18-20 minute range of ice time (including a career-low 17:41 average per game this season), compared to being a featured 21-23 minute per night player like he was from 2019-23. Production elements have fallen accordingly, Girard produced 131 points in 261 games from the 2019/20 season through 2022/23, down to 54 points in 172 games from 2023/24- current. That splits from an average year of five goals and 28 assists in 65 games down to three goals and 15 assists in 57 games.
The opportunity area is something that Dubas and the Pens feel they can offer Girard, given the state of their left side defense that has Parker Wotherspoon and then Ryan Shea and not much else.
“We just feel that we will have more opportunity here for Sam,” Dubas said. “In Colorado, he was behind a great group on the back end of a team that sits atop the league table and has the entire year. We feel Sam can play higher in our lineup because of his ability to play both special teams, ability to move the puck effectively up the ice, mobility, and ability to defend using his feet and intelligence.”
Girard’s availability has grown to be an issue too, Girard appeared in 90% of possible games for Colorado from 2019-23, down to 78.5% in the three most recent seasons. After an upper body injury sidelined him at the start of this season, Girard was passed on the depth chart by Sam Malinsky. Malinsky’s subsequent contract extension then made Girard’s cap hit with the Avalanche untenable enough to the point they essentially paid to get rid of him.
So while in the big picture this move looks like a great value for Pittsburgh, and undoubtedly a smash success to grow the Tristan Jarry trade tree out (which now stands at acquiring Girard, Stuart Skinner and two future second round picks in what started out as Jarry a few months ago), the transaction still carries some risk on the ice. Kulak’s steady defensive play had stabilized the team’s defense. Given Kulak’s age (32) and expiring contract, it’s reasonable that he was only going to be a short-term solution. Girard has never been known as a steadying defensive player in his own end, but has enough positives in transition with his hands and legs to help a team in those areas.
Under Dubas, the Penguins are never afraid to flip pieces around the board – dealing Jarry in the first place instead of maintaining the status quo was a perfect starting point to get to this decision to do it again with sending Kulak out for Girard. Dubas often talks about seeking players to give ‘opportunity’ to in efforts to improve and help the team, much like the December trade that brought Egor Chinakhov into the fold. His latest transaction is another move in that realm to add to the team’s stock and see what Girard can do with it.