Crunch time is officially back. It’s hard not to be optimistic for the third leg of the season this time around. Detroit, at every point this season, has shown that they have a level of heart and drive that they simply haven’t had in the past. However, the demons of past March collapses still haunt this locker room without a doubt.
This marks the third season in a row where the Red Wings went into the break holding onto a playoff spot. In the two seasons prior, that spot was a Wil Card position. This time around, they are pushing for a divisional seed.
Detroit continues to have one of the most polarizing situations in the NHL. Truthers will tell you that the offence has been so bad that it can’t possibly keep being this snake-bitten. They’ll also tell you that a healthy Simon Edvinsson and a re-energized Dylan Larkin should be enough to catapult them into the playoffs. The less optimistic fans will gesture towards the heroic performances that Moritz Seider and John Gibson have been having, and wonder when those might be coming to an end. Most importantly, there is the looming March collapse that always seems to bite this team in the butt
Both sides are right to push their agenda. There are reasons for optimism and pessimism, but if we can get some clarity on these five things, I think it will give us a clearer picture of what to expect from the Detroit Red Wings down the final stretch of the season.
How Will Simon Edvinsson Return From Surgery?
Edvinsson skating for Red Wings | Photo via NHL.com
It came as a surprise to me and a lot of other Red Wings fans when the news broke about Simon Edvinsson getting surgery to recover from his injury. While the Red Wings brass seems optimistic about Simon Edvinsson’s return, there are concerns about how recovery will affect his play.
It wouldn’t be the first time this season a Red Wing player came back from a short injury stint and took a while to get acclimated. Lucas Raymond looked like he was nursing his shoulder injury at times earlier this season. Unfortunately for Edvinsson, he isn’t going to be able to hide on this Red Wings roster; he’s going to need to shoulder a big load again immediately.
If Edvinsson gets back on the ice to the same level he was playing at prior to the injury, I’m a lot more confident about this team’s odds of getting into the postseason. It leaves them with only one hole on defence, being the second pair right-side. This Red Wings defence core has been better than most people give them credit for; they’ve largely been the Red Wings’ most consistent unit this season. Albert Johansson has taken a noticeable step in his play as of late, giving the Red Wings at least four defencemen who are good where they are meant to be slotted.
If Edvinsson is still nursing himself back to health, I’d be a little more shaky. While I’m optimistic about Ben Chiarot and his game, I don’t know that I’m ready for him to step back onto the top pair to ease Simon Edvinsson back into his minutes. Admittedly, Simon Edvinsson at 80% is probably still a step up from their other options in the top four right now.
A healthy Simon Edvinsson gives Detroit a pair that will dominate the play for over twenty minutes each night. Getting the puck out of the defensive zone should also help the offense, which has been struggling immensely recently.
What Will the Trade Deadline Look Like?
Justin Faulk for the St. Louis Blues | Photo: Keith Gillett-Getty Images
Steve Yzerman has made it clear in past seasons that he won’t get help for this team unless he thinks that they deserve it. If Yzerman stands pat this season, I don’t know what else they would have to do in order for them to get rewarded by their general manager.
I’ve long been critical of Steve Yzerman and his roster-building. I think Detroit is performing well in spite of the roster that Yzerman built. There are really only three, true top-six level forwards on this team: Larkin, DeBrincat, and Raymond. There are also really only two (optimistically three), top four defenceman on this team being Edvinsson and Seider.
This season has been defined by Herculean efforts from Detroit’s top players, and the fall-off from the core to the support players has been steep. Besides Chiarot, Copp, and Van Riemsdyk, there haven’t even been adequate performances from a lot of this team’s depth.
That lies on Yzerman. The stars of this team have proven that they can make do with mediocre players around them, and they’ve been good enough that Yzerman should be willing to get them legitimate supporting assets to help them compete.
I think a top-of-the-lineup addition is the most pressing. I would rather see a forward like Jordan Kyrou or Robert Thomas, but a right-shot defenceman isn’t something I’m opposed to either. Justin Faulk and Dougie Hamilton are the two biggest names on the market, and both interest me for different reasons. I’d also be interested in some bigger physical presences to sure up the bottom pair, like Simon Benoit and Jamie Oleksiak.
The point is that there are plenty of options to fill out the holes that this roster has, and believe me, there are many. The time is now for Steve Yzerman to prove that there is more to his bag of tricks as a general manager than just great drafting.
Does Lucas Raymond Have Another Gear?
Raymond celebrates a goal with his teammates. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
After dominating the Olympics, the bar is set sky high for Lucas Raymond. Raymond has been great this season, and at times, he’s shown that he can go supernova at the drop of a hat. Noticeably, it’s when his linemates are playing up to snuff. When Marco Kasper, Dylan Larkin or Alex DeBrincat are with him and on their game, Lucas Raymond seems to have no problem running up the score. Unfortunately, the luxury of support for him isn’t promised.
It’s unclear if Dylan Larkin or Marco Kasper is going to play at that star level where Lucas Raymond can really get the best out of them. So, unfair as it is, the question becomes, can Lucas Raymond take one last step and get Detroit through a handful of games off of sheer willpower alone?
He practically did it with Team Sweden. It’s not like he got to play with William Nylander, Sweden’s other true superstar, at any point. He was dragging solid players into games that they really had no business being in. While doing it, not the international stage is inspiring, whether or not he can bring that level of production back to the Motor City is yet to be determined.
His goal scoring seemed to start coming on before the Olympic break, although he wasn’t really scoring much during the tournament. If Lucas Raymond can find a mix of scoring and playmaking that he can when he’s at his best, like he was two seasons ago at this time, Detroit may have a saving grace.
Are There Bigger Issues with Power Play?
Patrick Kane for Detroit | Photo: AP Photo/Paul Sancya
It’s been Detroit’s best unit for a while, but recently it’s been lacklustre. Despite grabbing a goal against Utah, Detroit has had a slew of chances to get themselves into games, or win them, if they just showed up on the power play.
Any unit that got as hot as the Red Wings power play has gotten is doomed to hit a cold stretch at some point, but this feels far too prolonged for that. Detroit has gotten their chances, plenty of games during this final no-Edvinsson stretch before the break saw Detroit get north of two power plays, and there was even a point where the power play was 0 for their last 10 over a few game sample size.
It’s tough to say where the problem lies. I think the immediate guys I look to are Dylan Larkin and Patrick Kane. While Dylan Larkin had the best face-off percentage at the Olympics, flirting with 70%, he’s been on a cold streak in the face-off dot for a while. Falling from his early-season average of nearly 56% to just 52%, with three of his last five games having percentages less than 45%. Patrick Kane has also been ice-cold since getting his record. Be it even-strength or even on the power play, his lack of speed is starting to do more harm than good at this point.
Fortunately, the Red Wings have James Van Riemsdyk to deploy, who has looked great on the power play when used there this season. He gives Detroit a new element of net-front presence and dirty area production that this power play just simply doesn’t use. I’d also be interested in using Axel Sandin-Pellikka for the power play some more as well. If Detroit is going to cut his minutes at even strength, at least give Seider a break on the power play and see if Sandin-Pellikka can get his confidence going there.
What Will Happen with the Rest of the Atlantic Division?
Buffalo Sabres celebrating after goal | (AP Photo)
There is plenty of things to call into question about the Atlantic Division. Rasmus Dahlin and Victor Hedman both looked like they suffered injuries in Sweden’s final game against the United States, if they miss extended time, their teams could suffer respectively.
How will teams like Ottawa, Tampa Bay, and Florida, who sent so many bodies to the Olympics, manage to stay healthy down the stretch of the season? Even Boston had a sneaky amount of players heading to the Olympics, and Charlie McAvoy played a huge role in the gold medal game. The point is, there are plenty of bodies that saw big minutes on the international stage. Is there going to be some fatigue there?
Even teams like Buffalo, which have been so red hot at times and are led by Alex Lyon, who is known to run hot, then cool off, may be due for some regression.
As much as Detroit needs to keep up the good work internally, there are some external factors that might cause it some trouble if it doesn’t get some help from the out-of-town scoreboard.
More to Read:
Discover more from Inside The Rink
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.