Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Montreal Canadiens. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.

NHL Predictions: New York Islanders vs Montreal Canadiens

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch TV: MSGSN, TSN2, ESPN+

2024-25 Season Series: Islanders won 2-1 

We are back from the Olympic break, and now begins the final sprint towards the playoffs. This matchup features two teams in the thick of that race in a very competitive Eastern Conference. The Islanders come out of the break third in the Metropolitan Division after 58 games played. They hold a record of 32-21-5 which has them at 69 points on the season. The Canadiens find themselves in a similar position, holding second in the Atlantic Division after 57 games. Their record stands at 32-17-8, good enough for 72 points. This is the first matchup of the season between these teams, and it is a big one. They will play twice more in the final stretch of the season, tonight’s matchup taking place at the Bell Centre in Montreal.

The Islanders Story

The Islanders entered the break with a two-game winning streak that they will look to continue here. Their offence was inconsistent for much of the first half, which is why they rank 24th in the league in goals for with 2.84 per game. Much of that can be blamed on their 30th-ranked power play with a 15.7% conversion rate. They will need to get going as the season comes down the stretch. Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have been the engine for their goal-scoring production. Barzal has 51 points in 57 games, and Horvat has 40 points in 44 games played. These two will continue to work on the top line together and try to will their team into the playoffs.

Defensively, the Islanders will look to continue what they were doing in the first half. They went into the break third-ranked in goals against per game with 2.71. That is thanks in part to the 8th-ranked penalty kill at an 82.4% kill rate. Led by Matthew Schaefer, who will look to finish off a great rookie campaign. He is third on his team in points and sits third amongst rookies in points with 39 in 58 games. The other large part of the team’s success is the goaltending. David Rittich has been a solid backup, but it’s the starter, Ilya Sorokin, who has been in Vezina Trophy-winning form so far. He holds a 20-13-2 record with a .916 save percentage and will most likely start tonight.

The Canadiens Story

The Canadiens went into the break in good form, winning four of their last five games. In three of those five games, their offence scored four or more goals. The offence has been a strong suit for this team as they rank third in goals with 3.46 per game. Led by a dangerous top line that features team point leader Nick Suzuki and leading goal scorer Cole Caufield. Suzuki has 65 points in 57 games, while Caufield has 32 goals in 57 games. They also have a rookie having a great season in his own right on their second line. 20-year old Ivan Demidov, who leads all rookies in points with 46 in 57 games. Either he or the Schaefer will take home the Calder Memorial Trophy for rookie of the year.

Defensively, their rank in the league is not nearly as good. While they are third in goals for, they are 23rd in goals against with 3.21 per game. One reason has been a 25th-ranked penalty kill at a 76.9% kill rate. They are led by Lane Hutson, one of the league’s best and the team’s second-leading point scorer this season with 58 points in 57 games. Their goaltending play hasn’t been too strong. Jakub Dobes is 18-5-4 with an .891 save percentage. While Samuel Montembeault is 10-8-2 with an .875 save percentage. Neither goalie has been announced for the game as of yet.

Prediction

Coming into this game, both of these teams are in the thick of the playoff picture in the East. Their records are similar, with Montreal holding slightly more points. These teams excel in different areas of the game. The Canadiens hold the advantage offensively with one of the top units in the league. They also have home ice advantage in this contest. While the Islanders have the defensive and goaltending advantages. We feel the edge in those areas should lead to a win coming out of the break for New York.

Prediction: Islanders win 4-3

Prop Bets

Popular sports books have the Islanders as the underdogs; those are good odds, so we would take their money line at +125. The over/under is set at 6.5. Due to Montreal’s strong offence and their suspect goaltending, we like the over at +112. As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Bo Horvat at +190. He was playing for Team Canada during the break, so there should be no rust after the time off for everyone else. Look for him to pot one here. For the Canadiens, take Cole Caufield at +150. He’s been on a tear this season with 32 goals. Look for him to continue to light the lamp.

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Main Photo: Brad Penner-Imagn Images