It’s time to do something shocking, that is, something surprising, potentially distressing, and emotionally intense. It’s heresy to say it, but it’s time to trade Evan Bouchard.

When I watch the Oilers, I look at key analytics — analytics that relate to winning and losing NHL games. I call these analytic metrics “the Great Eight:”

short-handed faceoff win percentage;

penalty kill; and the lone offensive metric;

These metrics are empirically based predictors of winning NHL games. Models based on them correctly predicted Florida’s 4-2 series win over Edmonton last year and nearly predicted an Edmonton victory in 2024, which favoured the Oilers in Game 7.

Winning and losing NHL games are determined by razor-thin margins and, as the book The Random Factor indicates, roughly 53 per cent of each and every NHL game is determined by chance. (Speaking of shocking!)

So called puck luck is precisely why the best players in the world, like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, cannot simply will their team to a Stanley Cup. The NHL isn’t the NBA, where outcomes are based on 18-per-cent chance, and where “main effects” allow superstars to single-handedly win games. Think Kawhi Leonard. In hockey, bounces, deflections, and mistakes decide series.

The past 10 years, I’ve published 16 op-eds on the importance of defensive intensity, mental toughness, and grit. Defensive intensity is, by the way, the single most important factor in hockey. Not Corsi. Not shot clocks. Not expected goals for.

Those offensive metrics are not related to wins and losses. Many people believe insanity (a legal term) is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Psychologists define it differently. Psychologists partially define it as a disconnect between perception and reality. Team offence determining games is perception. Team defence determining games is reality.

The Oilers’ persistent tilt toward offence is not just mistaken. It’s, well — you know.

Stanley Cup-winning teams understand this reality. They play harder in their own end, don’t cheat for offence, capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and win the special teams battle. That’s the winning formula.

In Oil Country, many fans and media scapegoat goaltenders. That narrative is false. Goalie save percentage is best conceptualized as a team metric, not an individual statistic. Goalies are only as good as the defensive structure and positional play in front of them.

Positional play should be a key criterion for evaluating player performance. Fortunately, NHL teams have this type of granular tracking data from chips in players’ jerseys. Hopefully, they are using it.

Trading Bouchard for another Mattias Ekholm-like defenceman and, let’s say, a future first-round draft pick (and possibly more) makes good sense.

Yes, Bouchard’s offensive prowess is elite, off the charts. And, yes, he quarterbacks a dynamic power play. By all accounts, he’s an extremely good person and teammate. Trading him would cause internal angst, hand-wringing, and debate. But his strengths amplify what Edmonton already has in abundance: offence.

What Edmonton lacks is relentless defensive bite.

It’s time to acquire a defensive menace. Stabilize and reshuffle the blue line, top-to-bottom. Improve the penalty kill. Raise blocked shots and takeaways per 60. Protect the slot. Lower goals against. Lift team save percentage. The ripple effects would be profound, as data are clear: Defence and strong positional play reduce randomness and win games. Shots are called “chances” for a reason.

To be sure, trading beloved players is difficult. It feels wrong. It feels like betrayal. It’s shocking. Oiler brass can shock the world and perhaps, finally, bring the Stanley Cup home by doing the unthinkable and trading Bouchard at the deadline.

Dr. Bill Hanson is a registered psychologist, CEO of the Psychologists’ Association of Alberta (PAA), and a retired professor of psychology. He competed in three NCAA golf championships and has, since the ’80s, obsessed about sports performance and analytics. Opinions expressed are his own. He may be reached at flexpsychology.stalbert@gmail.com.

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