With the NHL trade deadline set for Friday, Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson continues to generate serious trade speculation. The 25-year-old winger has been linked to teams including Pittsburgh and Toronto, but recent comments from industry insiders suggest the Edmonton Oilers could be exploring options for a major acquisition.

Jason Robertson is having a career year, putting last season’s struggles firmly in the rearview mirror. Through 60 games in 2025-26, the 25-year-old has compiled 70 points, including 34 goals, 36 assists, and 21 multi-point performances. He is thriving on a line with Roope Hintz and finding chemistry across Dallas’ top six.

For the Oilers, who have faced Robertson in back-to-back Western Conference Finals, the appeal is obvious. This is a player who scored a natural hat trick against them just weeks ago in a 4-3 Dallas victory. He is a legitimate first-line winger who can play both sides and excels on the power play.

Marek suggested the Oilers could make an unexpected move

On Tuesday’s episode of Daily Faceoff LIVE, The Sheet’s Jeff Marek dropped some fascinating breadcrumbs about potential deadline surprises. Marek said he’s “really getting warm to the idea that the team we all might be talking about by the time the deadline rolls around on Friday are the Edmonton Oilers” adding that “maybe it’s that blockbuster that no one sees coming.” 

Marek specifically mentioned the possibility of Edmonton making a significant move involving Darnell Nurse, asking whether they’d look at doing something with the defenseman now and whether that would be bomb enough for Friday.

While Marek clarified this was “conversation leading up to the deadline,” the implications are fascinating.

If Edmonton is willing to move a contract like Nurse’s with his $9.25 million cap hit through 2029-30, it opens the door to much larger possibilities than the Connor Murphy acquisition suggested. The Oilers clearly have ambitions beyond depth additions, and if they’re willing to make a big move involving their second-highest-paid defenseman, suddenly nothing feels off the table.

Contract negotiations stalled between Jason Robertson and Dallas

Stars GM Jim Nill faces a complex situation with Robertson. The winger becomes a restricted free agent this summer and unrestricted in 2027. Marek noted Nill’s history of blockbuster moves and his current flexibility with Tyler Seguin’s LTIR money, saying he’s “always curious about Jim Nill at this time of year” because “he’s not shy about the blockbuster, as we saw with Mikko Rantanen.”

Marek also pointed out that the expectation from ownership is to get to the Stanley Cup, which is their mandate, and they have the Tyler Seguin money to play with now if they’re looking to make a massive splash.

More significantly, Marek addressed the Robertson contract situation directly, noting he “got a lot of heat last summer when I put it out there that, don’t be surprised if they can’t come to an agreement with Jason Robertson. He might hit the market.”

Marek continued: “Here we are, we’ve gone through the whole season worth of negotiations between Jason Robertson and the Dallas Stars, and still there’s no deal. I don’t think that he gets moved at the trade deadline, but who knows?” It sounds like Robertson wants something closer to Rantanen’s money, around $12 million AAV, while the Dallas Stars are closer to the $10 million number. Marek added an interesting caveat: “If the Dallas Stars win the Stanley Cup and he’s the Conn Smyth Trophy winner, which he could be, he probably gets that contract. I still do think that they keep him. After that, though, if they don’t win the Stanley Cup, I think all bets are off.”

How a potential Jason Robertson to Oilers trade framework could work

This is pure speculation, but if we’re gaming out what a Robertson-to-Edmonton trade might look like, here’s how the pieces could fit. Dallas would receive Darnell Nurse with 50% salary retained by Edmonton, a young roster player, a 2027 or 2028 first-round pick and a top prospect such as Matthew Savoie, Ike Howard, or equivalent.

Edmonton would receive Jason Robertson and potentially a cap relief piece or mid-round pick to balance the deal.

The numbers work if Edmonton retains 50% on Nurse at $4.625 million, which, combined with Robertson’s $7.75 million cap hit, creates a net increase of roughly $3.125 million. This is manageable with Seguin’s LTIR space available to Dallas, but Edmonton would need to move additional salary out to make the math work.

Someone like Andrew Mangiapane and his $3.6M contract would fit perfectly, but the Stars would likely ask for an asset to take on this money, even if they can bury him in the minors if he clears waivers again.

Does a Jason Robertson trade make sense?

For Dallas, they’d get a top-four defenseman who can eat minutes even at 50% retained salary, a young roster player, significant draft capital and a blue-chip prospect, all while avoiding a potential $12 million commitment next summer. For Edmonton, they would add a 34-goal scorer who’s proven himself in big games, giving them a chance to win now and convince him to stay long-term.

The contract impasse is also important in this scenario. If Robertson is indeed seeking Rantanen-level money around $12 million and Dallas is only willing to go to $10 million, that’s a significant gap to bridge. Trading him now, before watching that gap potentially widen in the offseason, could make sense from a pure asset management perspective if Dallas can acquire pieces that help them win this season.

The Oilers are also cap-tight, and even with Kapanen, Roslovic, Murphy, Lazar, and Henrique expiring, they would need to make another move to pay Robertson what he wants this summer.

Multiple obstacles stand in the way of a Jason Robertson trade to Edmonton

Trading a star within the division is always risky, and Dallas is a contender right now, so moving Robertson would mean retreat at exactly the wrong moment. Robertson’s recent agent change to Andy Scott, who also represents Mikko Rantanen, suggests he is preparing for a big payday. 

After years of win-now moves, Edmonton’s prospect pool is depleted. This limitswhat they can offer. And Nurse has a modified no-trade clause, meaning he’d have to waive, and Dallas would need to be on his approved list of destinations.

Robertson focused on team success

Robertson himself has remained diplomatic about his future. When asked about his contract situation earlier this season, he said it doesn’t really bother him and that what’s important is this year for the team, adding that “the window is open, we’re trying to win it this year, and then we’ll look at it.”

After being snubbed from the US Olympic roster, Robertson stayed focused, saying he loves the game and that’s the beauty of it all. He noted he doesn’t have to think, he just loves playing hockey and “the other stuff takes care of itself.”

With Vegas struggling against playoff teams, having not beaten a playoff-bound opponent since November 20th, and the Pacific Division up for grabs, teams are reassessing what’s possible. Marek noted that “this thing’s wide open” when referring to the Western Conference race. In that environment, unconventional ideas suddenly don’t seem so crazy after all.

If Edmonton believes they’re one elite winger away from a championship and if Dallas questions whether they can afford to keep Robertson beyond this season anyway, a framework for discussion surely exists.

Dallas GM’s track record says anything is possible

Marek also pointed out Nill’s unpredictability when he asked whether you could see Jim Nill doing all of his shopping in Calgary, comparing it to getting your basket and going to one grocery store where Jim Nill could get what he wants from one team. While Marek was discussing Calgary in that context, the philosophy applies to any trading partner. Nill doesn’t do things conventionally.

The man who acquired Jamie Benn as an undrafted free agent, who picked Roope Hintz in the second round, and who traded for Miro Heiskanen’s draft slot is certainly not afraid of the bold move.

Deadline day, waiting for the blockbuster

So, is Jason Robertson actually getting traded to Edmonton? Marek himself said he doesn’t think Robertson gets moved at the trade deadline, but added, “Who knows?” And with Edmonton reportedly getting ready to swing for an unseen blockbuster, it’s worth considering every possibility.

Robertson has tormented the Oilers in playoff battles. He is exactly the kind of game-breaking talent they’ve needed to complement Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The most likely scenario, according to Marek, is that Dallas keeps Robertson for this playoff run. If they win the Cup and Robertson wins the Conn Smyth, he probably gets his $12 million. But if they fall short? “All bets are off,” as Marek put it.

That could open the door for a summer trade, though, but then again, who knows? Edmonton’s window of opportunity may have closed, as we saw in Toronto this season. As we count down to Friday’s deadline, it seems the Oilers will be watching very, very closely. Robertson just came off back-to-back dominant performances, scoring in a 6-1 win over Vancouver on March 2 and helping Dallas crush Calgary 6-1 on March 3. He’s playing his best hockey at exactly the right time, which only increases his value whether Dallas keeps him for a playoff run or cashes in on his peak market price.

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