You are not overthinking it. There is no mystery angle to the latest Minnesota Wild transaction. Trading a 2028 second-round pick for a “big” checking forward in Michael McCarron is not good asset management.

Let’s do a little bit of an economics lesson. When many people are interested in the product, demand is high. But when there are many similar products in the market, that forces prices down. McCarron is not a special player and is not worthy of a second-round pick. 

I can’t imagine there was a strong market for a player who does this:

Apparently, the Wild were not the only team in on McCarron. Brian Lawton reports that McCarron would be a marketable asset this trade deadline. So the economics lesson above has a bit of a wrinkle.

But that leads me to my next point.

It appears that when Bill Guerin wants something, he goes after it. He often presents opposing GMs with a high offer and lets it stand. We saw this with the Quinn Hughes deal, where Guerin sent his only offer to the Vancouver Canucks, and we live in a wonderful world where Quinn Hughes plays for the Wild.

I know all about the projections of a second-round pick, and I can hear you in the comments telling me all about how those second-rounders have a less than 30% chance of even playing in the NHL. 

“Look, second-round picks are valuable, but we want to improve our team now. We can deal with that down the road.” Guerin said. “So, I’m not worried about that.”

However, that fails to acknowledge that the second-round pick is still a valuable trade asset, and Michael McCarron isn’t the lone missing puzzle piece. The Wild still need a top-six forward and a No. 1 center.

The trade deadline is March 6, so Guerin couldn’t wait on Nashville forever. That’s why Minnesota had to go out and give a second in 2028. However, overspending on McCarron is costly for the Wild because they sent a second-round pick on Gustav Nyquist last year
 

It’s time for Guerin to lose Nashville’s number unless the name is Steven Stamkos or Ryan O’Reilly.

Regardless of how you feel about the value of second-round picks, Guerin could be used as a piece to get a larger asset. Would you rather have a single, really good center or a single kind-of-meh center? The answer is obvious.

Still, let’s take a look at why the Wild would want to go out and get this type of player. McCarron has two strengths: He’s big, and he can win faceoffs. The chart below pretty much summarizes why McCarron will don Forest Green and Iron Range Red for the remainder of the season: 

The Wild still have trouble killing penalties and winning faceoffs, and McCarron does both of those things to a degree. He’s having his best year offensively, but he’s on pace for a whopping 20 points. 

McCarron’s height stands out. He’s 6-foot-6, and while the tape would show that Mats Zuccarello uses his weight more effectively, McCarron is still technically 6-foot-6. Zuccy can get lower and use his weight to battle along the boards effectively.

McCarron physically takes up more space on the ice, but he could play more physically. But for a guy who is about to be 31, don’t expect him to suddenly become a guy who leverages his size well, at least not while the puck is in play.

The Wild will also like that he’s on a team-friendly contract. He only makes $900k until the end of the season, so he’s more or less an accounting error on Minnesota’s cap sheet. There’s a case that if the Wild can re-sign him, they’ll get more value on the trade. However, that won’t be true if Guerin gives him a deal like Yakov Trenin (four years, $14 million).

So, why did the Wild make this trade? You can make the case that the team is unhappy with Nico Sturm, who was injured and has not looked like the player who helped Florida win back-to-back Stanley Cups. Marcus Foligno is also hurt. Both are reasons why the team needed to add a player to the fourth line.

But fourth-line upgrades often come cheap, like with the Wild getting Robby Fabbri on waivers from St. Louis. Is he a better player than McCarron? At this point in his career, McCarron will probably play more NHL games than Fabbri over the next three years, but Fabbri is a fine fourth-line replacement player.

And they didn’t need to trade draft capital for Fabbri. McCarron cost a second-round pick. Teams should use waiver claims to help fill a temporary injury, not second-round picks.

Ultimately, there’s a reason I’m not the GM of an NHL team. Maybe McCarron is the missing piece to this team, and the second-rounder will be an afterthought as the parade rolls down 7th Street. But, I doubt it. Perhaps, as a result of the trade, the Wild will be left with less flexibility than before, and a player who did little to bolster the roster.

All stats and data via HockeyDB and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.