Bill Guerin entered the trade deadline with one goal: To put the finishing touches on a team that could get through the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and punch their way to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup appearance.

It’s important to understand that these aren’t the outsized expectations of an impatient fanbase. This is a standard that Guerin and the Minnesota Wild organization are setting. They have been very public about their five-year plan to win a Cup — one they’re in Year 3 of. The Wild have two of the top-10 scoring forwards in the NHL in Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy. They went all-in on Quinn Hughes in December to add the best defenseman in the world.

The fanbase waited years as the Wild struggled to remain competitive under the weight of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts. Now was go-time, and the Wild fell short on that final piece.

Minnesota’s need was a top center. The Stars and especially the Avalanche are deep at the position, whereas the Wild are bringing Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman, and rookie Danila Yurov to the playoffs. Replacing Hartman with someone like Vincent Trocheck, Ryan O’Reilly, or Robert Thomas would have gone a long way to closing the gap.

For all of Minnesota’s nice moves around the margins — namely, grabbing Bobby Brink and veterans Nick Foligno and Jeff Petry — they are headed to the playoffs with an identical glaring weakness to what they had in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025. The Wild lost in the first round in all those seasons.

The lack of a top center is getting little criticism locally, with many telling us why it’s fine, or even good, that Minnesota didn’t play the trade market more aggressively. But are these reasons valid? Or is everyone holding their breath and hoping the Wild didn’t blow a golden opportunity at the deadline?

Let’s take a look at these common excuses and judge for ourselves.

The Wild Made Their Deadline Move in December

There’s no doubt that if you extend “the trade deadline” back to October, the Wild got the most impactful player to move this season. Hell, Hughes is ahead of Connor McDavid with 7.4 Standings Points Above Replacement, giving him a valid claim at the MVP. If we’re factoring in the Hughes trade, Guerin’s work is unimpeachable.

But the problem with that caveat is simple: Trading for Hughes raises the expectations. The Wild became a Cup contender when they moved for Hughes. Cup contenders — true Cup contenders — are rarely content to go into the playoffs without addressing their biggest need. Guerin knew the need and that the team was ready to contend as soon as he saw Hughes playing at an MVP level.

This isn’t even just for the fans — it’s for Hughes, whom the Minnesota cannot sign until July 1. The Wild must sell Hughes on an extension this summer. If he refuses, Minnesota will almost certainly have to trade him to avoid letting him walk for nothing as a free agent. This is the only guaranteed playoff run Guerin has with Hughes, and they head into it with a glaring weakness.

Excuse-O-Meter Rating: 0/10. 

Look At the Olympics, Bill Guerin Knows How To Build A Winner

Guerin indeed caught flak for leaving home the likes of Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield to bring penalty-killers like Trocheck and J.T. Miller to the Olympics. The result validated his decisions, and no one can take that Gold Medal away from him. Shouldn’t that buy him a little slack here?

At the risk of pushing back too hard, can we just say that Guerin’s job as a Team USA general manager is different than his responsibilities as the Wild GM? Beating Canada was a tall task, that’s absolutely correct. But Guerin was able to pick an All-Star team, complete with the world’s best defenseman (Hughes), one of the best two-way, goal-scoring centers in recent memory (Auston Matthews), and the reigning MVP in net (Connor Hellebuyck). The talent pool Guerin worked with was deeper than anyone else’s, save for Canada’s.

Lost in the Guerin criticisms was that Trocheck and Miller and Brock Nelson are all damn good hockey players. Trocheck scored 30 goals in the NHL and has two 70-point seasons. Miller is two years removed from a 100-point campaign. Nelson is great now, tied for 15th in hockey with 30 goals. Building an All-Star team to beat (basically) one team is an easier task than building a cap-compliant team that can take on 15 playoff teams.

All that, and one more thing: One of those guys Guerin won gold with is Trocheck, whose asking price the Wild balked at. O’Reilly won a Conn Smythe Award (Playoff MVP) and Selke Trophy (best defensive forward). This isn’t an instance of Guerin eschewing a talented, but possibly overrated offensive star for “the right” players. These are Hockey Men-type players Minnesota walked from.

Excuse-O-Meter: 2/10.

The Wild’s Stars Mitigate the Need For A Prototypical Top Center

Guerin offered this take to the media on Friday:

Quote

“Back in the day, centers carried the puck. They fed the wingers. The game is so different now. It’s so fluid, and (there’s) so much more creativity now. Kaprizov drives the offense on his line. Boldy drives the offense on his line. You need your centermen to be 200-foot players more than ever. The game has changed in that aspect.”

You can obviously add Hughes to the mix here, who has supercharged the Wild’s offense and cranked up the pace since his arrival. The offense runs through those three stars, and trading for Trocheck, O’Reilly, or even Thomas wouldn’t change that calculus much.

Can a team with two elite wingers, an all-world defenseman, and thin center depth get through the playoffs, though? The closest we’ve seen to a precedent with this sort of team is the 2016-17 Ottawa Senators. They had Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone drag the team to within one win of the Stanley Cup Final, forcing a Game 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Maybe if you squint, you can look at the 2019-20 Vegas Golden Knights, with Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Shea Theodore?

Both those teams were bounced in the Conference Final. The game may indeed be evolving in this direction. However, without a real proof of concept in the postseason, the Wild would have to be pioneers in this regard.

Excuse-O-Meter: 5/10

The Wild Can Go Big-Game Hunting This Summer

We covered this during the immediate aftermath of the Trade Deadline, and even before. You probably know where this is going if you read those. 

This is part of the same conversation as Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make, and The prices were extremely high. Moving big pieces now would preclude the team from getting in on a player like Matthews, Jack Hughes, or Brady Tkachuk if they became available this summer.

All three of those are big “ifs,” barring inside knowledge and/or tampering. These hopes were dashed last summer for the Wild, and they could easily be dashed this summer. The Wild had a real opportunity to take the next step immediately. To echo a story from Guerin, the player that Minnesota cashes in Jesper Wallstedt, Charlie Stramel, and more for had better be “a really f—ing good player.”

Excuse-O-Meter: 3.5/10

No One Else Got These Big-Name Centers

That’s not entirely accurate. The Avalanche got Nazem Kadri as the deadline expired. Kadri’s age (35) and contract (three years remaining at $7 million AAV) make the move a potential poison pill, but their biggest rival made a move to upgrade their center position, which was less of a need than Minnesota’s.

But this is probably the most reasonable of Guerin’s excuses. Plenty of teams had a reason or motivation to trade for Trocheck, O’Reilly, and especially the young, cost-controlled Thomas. None of them did, and that highlights that the GMs of the dozen or so buyers in the league backed away from the cost.

Were the Wild smart to not give in to the asking price? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly what would have gotten the deal done. All we can say from the outside is, as great as the cost was, the need was greater. Minnesota needed to strengthen the top of their lineup and down the middle.

The time to do it wasn’t next summer. It was now, to capitalize on having Hughes in the lineup and Boldy at his peak. To convince Hughes that he could win here long-term. If the Wild have another one-and-done year after all this excitement and hope, we’ll be left wondering what could have been if Guerin pushed his chips in one last time this year.

Excuse-O-Meter: 6.5/10