Photo credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
The Toronto Maple Leafs win TSN’s mock draft lottery, take Penn State star and projected top pick Gavin McKenna but that’s only if the team is lucky enough to finish in the top-5; which means a free-fall in the standings may be the key.
The moment the Toronto Maple Leafs moved up in TSN’s mock draft lottery, the Florida Panthers dropping to Toronto’s position at eight overall, immediately the thought was ‘the Leafs have won’.
Indeed, the Toronto Maple Leafs won the first overall pick, not the real one, but TSN’s own simulated drawing of the balls, with the Chicago Blackhawks at second overall and the Vancouver Canucks at third.
The projected top pick in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft, McKenna has 14 goals, 33 assists, & 47 points this season in the NCAA for the Nittany Lions, second in points behind Calgary Flames prospect and Quinnipiac forward Ethan Wyttenbach.
Leafs win Gavin McKenna in mock lottery, is it what Toronto does?
The Toronto Maple Leafs fake select Gavin McKenna first overall, but is he who they select?
Despite GM Brad Treliving’s insistence on size, most scouts I’ve spoken to view McKenna as the top pick, something not reflected on social media as McKenna has had a not-so perfect season in his transition from junior hockey to College.
Likely, Brad Treliving takes the best player available, necessary with Toronto’s lack of prospect capital. McKenna, who has the potential to be a game changing talent, would be hard to pass up despite his size. The same goes for Ivar Stenberg.
Most scouts view McKenna and Stenberg as the top two prospects, with only Keaton Verhoeff still in the discussion in the top-two, but the most popular player in the top-three. Regardless of the top three teams in the lottery, the order is highly likely to be McKenna, Stenberg, Verhoeff.
The rest of the simulated 2026 NHL Draft and thoughts
Chicago with the simulated second pick selected Keaton Verhoeff, the 6’4 blueliner having 20 points in 30 games in the NCAA for North Dakota, while being a highly responsible defender as one of college’s youngest players.
Vancouver selects Ivar Stenberg third overall. Stenberg, who for years has been one of the most promising youngsters out of Sweden, this season having 11 goals and 32 points in 39 games for Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League.
Stenberg’s SHL 0.82 PPG is only bested as a draft prospect by Hall of Famer Daniel Sedin, and above twin Henrik, Peter Forsberg, Leo Carlsson, and William Nylander as many of Sweden’s best.
At fourth, Calgary selects center Caleb Malhotra. The son of former NHLer and current Canucks assistant coach Manny, the younger Malhotra is well liked for being a naturalcenter with a good hockey IQ and two-way talent, similar to last year’s fifth pick, Brady Martin.
Another OHLer goes fifth to St. Louis in defenseman Chase Reid. The American was a revelation after going from the NAHL to the OHL and dominating right away as an underager.
The New York Rangers select World Juniors defenseman Carson Carels at 6th and Winnipeg selects center Tynan Lawrence 7th. Despite a difficult mid-season transition to college hockey, Lawrence still showcases a high upside.
At eight, Florida takes rising Latvian defenseman Alberts Smits, New Jersey at ninth taking winger Oscar Hemming, who missed the first half of the season due to issues with his contract back home in Finland. Flashy Swedish forward Viggo Bjorck goes 10th to Nashville.
6’5 winger Ethan Belchetz goes 11th to the Los Angeles Kings. Belchetz is an NHL body with a strong shot, but faces questions about his advanced tools. Defenseman Daxon Rudolph goes 12th to San Jose.
Washington takes one of the highest recent risers in Liam Ruck at 13, who, along with twin brother, Marcus, has been tearing up the WHL with Medicine Hat in 2026 after a surprise slow start.
Philadelphia takes center Oliver Suvanto at 14th. A 6’3 center who has strong skating and puck control, he’s a player I’ve heard could sneak into the top-10. One comparison I’ve heard is Aleksander Barkov, and Florida has their pick in the top-10.
Ottawa forfeited their 2026 first due to a punishment from the league for failing to notify the Vegas Golden Knights of Evgenii Dadonov’s NTC. Undersized, but flashy defenseman Ryan Lin went 16th to Columbus.
One name that is a surprise omission is forward Adam Novotny. The Czech forward who can play both as a center and winger has had his best moments internationally, but has translated well to the OHL, and many Ontario scouts I’ve spoken to think he could very well be a top-10 pick.
In Europe, two forwards who could move into the top-16 are Elton Hermansson and Marcus Nordmark, both Swedish wingers with middle-six potential. Hermansson especially looks like he could go early in the 10’s.
WHL forward JP Hurlbert has lit the lamp for Kamloops this season, but his range likely starts in the 15-20 range, although he has his fans who would pound the table for him to go higher.
Of note, many scouts I’ve talked to out of western Canada, they’d rather have 2027 top prospect Landon DuPont over Gavin McKenna. This may have not been the case to start the season after a slow start from DuPont, but he’s had a dominant second half and compares to the best defenseman in the NHL in Cale Makar.
Previously on Hockey Patrol