Updated March 12, 2026, 2:04 p.m. ET

The Detroit Red Wings (36-22-7) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (39-20-4) meet Thursday at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Red Wings vs. Lightning and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1

This is the first meeting in Tampa this season. The teams split the first 2 matchups at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The Lightning won 6-3 as a moderate favorite (-125) as the Over (6.5) cashed Nov. 28 in the most recent meeting. The Red Wings won 2-1 in OT Oct. 17.

Detroit lost 4-3 in Florida Tuesday as short dogs (-105) as the Over (5.5) cashed. Recent acquisition D Justin Faulk had a goal and an assist in the loss. The Red Wings are just 1-2-1 in the past 4 games, with the Under 2-1 in the previous 3 outings.

Red Wings Fs Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp are both expected to miss at least the next 2 weeks due to lower-body injuries. Larkin was hurt in the Florida game March 6, while Copp was banged up against the Panthers Tuesday.

Tampa Bay suffered a 5-2 loss at home to the Columbus Blue Jackets as heavy favorites (-240) as the Over (6.5) just came in. G Andrei Vasilevskiy was trampled for 4 goals on 31 shots, as the Lightning have now lost 6 of the past 7 games to slip 4 points back of the Buffalo Sabres for first place in the Atlantic Division.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Red Wings at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:03 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Red Wings +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Lightning -210 (bet $210 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Wings +1.5 (-140) | Lightning -1.5 (+115)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)Red Wings at Lightning projected goalies

John Gibson (24-12-2, 2.56 GAA, .906 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (28-11-3, 2.37 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO)

Gibson allowed 4 goals on 28 shots in the loss in Florida Tuesday, but he’ll be allowed to get right back up on the horse. He is confirmed to start. Gibson allowed 5 goals on 26 shots in the 6-3 loss on Nov. 28, but he also stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 2-1 OTW against the Lightning on Oct. 17.

Vasilevskiy was also dinged for 4 goals in his most recent start in a 5-2 loss to Columbus, stopping 27 shots. He is a dismal 1-3-0 with a 3.30 GAA and .881 SV% in 4 March outings. He made 34 saves in a 6-3 win over the Red Wings on Nov. 28, while allowing 2 goals on 31 shots in the 2-1 OTL Oct. 17 in The D.

Red Wings at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction

Red Wings 4, Lightning 3

DETROIT (+170) is worth a roll of the dice, since Tampa Bay is sucking wind lately.

There is still plenty of risk here, as Copp and Larkin are each sidelined. The Red Wings should be OK to overcome Copp’s absence, but Larkin is a big loss, so tread lightly. Still, Tampa Bay has dropped 6 of 7, and it was manhandled by the Blue Jackets last time out.

The RED WINGS +1.5 (-140) isn’t a bad play if you a bit more on the conservative side as a bettor, or you’re scared off by the Larkin injury. Still, Detroit is playing much better hockey than Tampa Bay recently, and a little insurance isn’t priced out of line.

OVER 6 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at most.

The Over has a slight edge (3-2-1) in the past 6 games for the Red Wings, splitting 1-1 in the first 2 meetings in this season series.

Meanwhile, the Lightning have cashed high in 3 in a row, allowing 13 goals in the past 2 games. The Lightning have been tagged for at least 4 goals in 6 of the past 7 games, too, with the Over going 8-1-2 in the past 11 games since Feb. 1.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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