Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Auston Matthews is out, and Craig Berube now has to manage more than a lineup loss after the knee-on-knee from Radko Gudas.
That hit already changed the feel around Toronto’s season. Now it is also changing the math around where the Maple Leafs could land in the draft.
One projection making the rounds says Toronto’s chances of picking in the top 5 jump from 12.7 percent to 19.6 percent if Matthews is out for the rest of the season.
That is a real shift, even if it does not guarantee anything by itself. It tells you how much weight Matthews carries every night when he is in the lineup.
The current player file still lists Matthews as day-to-day with a lower-body issue, so the long-term picture is still hanging over the club. His season line stands at 27 goals and 26 assists in 60 games.
That is why the Radko Gudas play hit so hard in Toronto. The Leafs did not just lose a star centre in the moment. They were suddenly staring at a version of the stretch run without their biggest matchup driver.
The Radko Gudas hit changed more than the bench
Craig Berube’s first problem is still the ice. Without Matthews, Toronto has to lean harder on John Tavares down the middle and ask William Nylander to carry even more of the offensive push.
But the second problem is the bigger picture. If Matthews misses the rest, the Leafs are not only weaker in the top six.
They also become more vulnerable to the kind of slide that changes lottery odds in a hurry.
That is what makes the knee-on-knee from Radko Gudas such a massive storyline. It is no longer only about one collision or one suspension. It is about the ripple effect on Toronto’s entire finish.
The Leafs can still stay competitive. Berube can stack Tavares with Nylander, spread out Max Domi, and try to squeeze more from Matthew Knies and the younger forwards.
Still, there is no clean replacement for Matthews.
A team can patch a line. It cannot patch a player who changes faceoffs, power-play spacing, and matchups all at once.
So even if the projection is only one model, the message is clear. The hit from Radko Gudas did not just threaten Toronto’s playoff push. It also reopened questions about how this season could end and where the Maple Leafs could be picking if Auston Matthews stays out.
Previously on Toronto Hockey Daily
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