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The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche will meet again in the 2026 postseason, and history suggests this matchup will be close.
Last year, Dallas won a grueling seven-game series against Colorado in the first round.
That result matters because it shows the Stars can beat this team when games count most. But 2026 presents a different problem. Colorado has been dominant, sitting at 41-10-9, while Dallas trails at 38-14-9. The gap in the standings tells part of the story. Injuries tell the rest.
Dallas enters the playoffs without Tyler Seguin, who will miss the remainder of the regular season. Roope Hintz remains out for at least a couple of weeks, with Coach Glen Gulutzan saying the team hopes he returns before playoff games begin. Radek Faksa is also unavailable. Three top-six forwards are gone from a roster that needs all its scoring depth to compete with Colorado’s firepower. The Stars made moves at the trade deadline, bringing in Tyler Myers and Michael Bunting to fill gaps. Those additions help, but they do not replace what Hintz and Seguin provide when healthy.
Credit: Pat Doney NBC 5-Facebook
Colorado went the other direction at the deadline. The Avalanche added Nazem Kadri and Nicolas Roy, giving them more options at center and rounding out their top-nine forward group. Nathan MacKinnon continues to play at an elite level, recording a goal and two assists when the teams met on March 6. That game ended Dallas’s franchise-record 10-game winning streak in a 5-4 shootout loss. Martin Necas finished with a goal and three assists. Cale Makar added a goal and an assist. Colorado has depth, skill, and a roster built for postseason hockey.
The March 6 Meeting Exposed the Margins
That shootout loss revealed how thin the margin is between these teams. Dallas played well enough to extend the game past regulation. The Stars pushed Colorado to the limit even while missing key players. Jake Oettinger stopped enough shots to keep the game competitive, and the Stars generated offense against one of the best defensive units in the league. But Colorado won when it mattered. MacKinnon and Necas took over in critical moments, and that ability to close games separates contenders from pretenders.
Oettinger has been consistent all season, posting a 26-10-5 record with a 2.65 goals against average. His numbers give Dallas a chance in any game. Goaltending often decides playoff series, and the Stars have a starter capable of stealing games. The question is how much pressure the defense puts on him without Hintz and Seguin generating offensive zone time. Dallas will need its remaining forwards to play above their typical production levels.
Placing Money on the Series Outcome
Dallas and Colorado draw heavy betting interest given their history and contrasting rosters. Sportsbooks list Colorado as the favorite based on their 41-10-9 record and offensive depth, though Dallas proved last year they can take a series to seven games. Bettors tracking line movement often compare odds across multiple platforms before committing.
Resources like lists of the best sportsbook sites, odds aggregators, and team-specific forums help bettors find value. Injury reports matter here, too. Hintz and Seguin being out could push Dallas spreads wider, creating openings for those willing to bet against public sentiment.
How the Roster Moves Affect the Series
The trade deadline acquisitions change the shape of both rosters. Dallas brought in Myers and Bunting for depth. Myers adds size on the blue line. Bunting can play a physical style and chip in offensively. These are role players, competent but not transformative. They fill holes rather than create new advantages.
Colorado’s moves carry more weight. Kadri has postseason pedigree, having won a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2022. He knows how to perform in high-pressure games. Roy gives Colorado another center who can match up against opposing top lines. The Avalanche can roll four lines with skill and size at every position. When coaches have that flexibility, they can manage minutes better and keep stars fresh for overtime situations.
Dallas will rely heavily on Jason Robertson and Matt Duchene to carry the offensive load. If Hintz returns before the series begins, the Stars have a legitimate top line that can compete with anyone. Without him, Robertson becomes the focal point of opposing defensive schemes. Colorado has the personnel to shadow him with Makar on the ice during even-strength situations.
Goaltending Could Swing the Series
Oettinger gives Dallas a path forward. His regular-season numbers suggest he can handle playoff pressure. In their 2025 series win, he outplayed Alexandar Georgiev across seven games. That performance built confidence in his ability to steal games when the Stars are outshot or outplayed for stretches.
Colorado has made adjustments in net since then. Georgiev has settled into a steadier rhythm this season, though his numbers still trail Oettinger’s. The Avalanche compensates by controlling possession and limiting quality chances against. Their defense generates offense, which takes pressure off the goaltender by keeping the puck in the opposing zone for long stretches.
What Dallas Needs to Win
The Stars need three things to happen. First, Hintz must return healthy and productive. His speed and two-way game create matchup problems that open ice for teammates. Second, Oettinger has to be the best goaltender in the series. He showed last year he can do that, but repeating it against a deeper Colorado team will be harder. Third, Dallas needs secondary scoring from Myers, Bunting, and the bottom-six forwards. One line cannot outscore Colorado’s balanced attack.
The numbers favor Colorado. The record favors Colorado. The roster depth favors Colorado. But Dallas won the series that mattered last season. Playoff hockey does not always follow regular-season logic. Home ice will matter, and Colorado owns that advantage. Seven games remain possible. Dallas winning four of them requires everything to break their way.
Conclusion
Dallas has a chance against Colorado, but that chance shrinks with every game Hintz misses. The Stars proved in 2025 that they belong in the conversation with the Avalanche.
This year presents steeper odds. Colorado improved at the deadline while Dallas lost key players to injury. Oettinger gives the Stars hope.
Their defensive structure keeps games close. But beating a 41-10-9 team without a full roster requires near-perfect execution.
The path exists for Dallas. Walking it will be hard.
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