Photo credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
The NHL Draft Lottery is becoming increasingly the only way to save the Toronto Maple Leafs first round pick, and after a win in Minnesota their odds got just a bit worse.
The Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2 win over the Minnesota Wild Sunday was a much needed moral victory for a Leafs team having had it’s worst stretch of the season, but even winning now has its setbacks.
For some fans having given up on the season, Toronto’s consistent losing comes with a clear benefit. The Leafs first round pick is owned by the rival Boston Bruins, but comes with a condition.
Having dealt the pick to Boston in the Brandon Carlo trade, the deal is top-five protected, so if the Leafs finish in the draft lottery in the bottom-five, they keep their pick, otherwise it would transfer to the Bruins.
The lottery loophole that gives Toronto a back door to keeping their 2026 selection
The Toronto Maple Leafs path to keeping their first round pick is simple, but it depends on them being able to remain in the top-five in the lottery.
There are two official drawings in the NHL Draft Lottery, one for first overall and the other for second, this being unless a re-draw is needed.
Only the top 11 teams in the draft order are eligible to receive the first overall pick, as a team can only move up 10 spots in the draft that means any team from 1-11 in the lottery can gain the first pick.
Teams between 12-16 can also move up ten spots, but the 12th placed team can only move up to second, the 16th placed team to 6th, and the same for the teams between 13th to 15th.
If a team between 12th to 16th wins the first lottery, they would only move up ten spots, and another draw for all contending teams for first overall would be held.
Currently, the Toronto Maple Leafs hold as of today the 11th overall pick, which would transfer over to Boston. Toronto’s win over Minnesota dropped them down from seventh, though it’s a very tight race to the bottom unless you’re Vancouver.
Securing a top-five talent is the only mandatory path to a successful 2027 rebuild
The Toronto Maple Leafs will want to keep their first round pick. Although they can live without a first, it may be necessary for their success.
As noted in a previous article, the Leafs lack prospect depth with Easton Cowan graduated, and Jacob Quillan likely to do so next season. Beyond that, a lack of high-end prospects, and NHL ready players.
The 2026 draft is full of players of need within the top five in both skilled forwards and two-way defenseman, including Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, & Keaton Verhoeff, all potential NHLers next season.
If the Leafs are committed to resisting a full rebuild, unless they have a player who can come into the lineup right away, losing that pick is only a small price to pay, albeit, an unlucky one.
Toronto isn’t hoping to repeat their situation in 2027. If the season is a lost cause, they’ll want a top prospect now, they’re not hoping to be in Landon DuPont contention.
The Leafs could still make their way into round one if they don’t keep their pick, but this trade deadline already proved how difficult that is, at least for Brad Treliving.
Having a top-five pick isn’t just necessary for the Toronto Maple Leafs, it could very well be a key addition long-term to a barren draft cabinet.
Previously on Hockey Patrol
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