Right before the puck dropped on the 2025-26 season, I saw FanDuel offer up a bet with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators to both make the playoffs at +200.
I sent it to a couple of my buddies.
One is a Leafs fan, the other is a Sens fan.
The Leafs fan explained to me that Toronto was a lock to make the playoffs, so I was better off laying the juice with the Buds to get in and not risking any money on Ottawa, even if FanDuel was offering +200 odds.
The Sens fan laid out how Ottawa and Toronto would both get in, but he wouldn’t make that bet because he couldn’t stand the thought of cheering for the Maple Leafs to make the playoffs.
Somehow, they both got the narrative wrong, but also both made the right decision when they passed on the NHL Ontario teams to make the playoffs parlay.
I also couldn’t convince either of them to tail me on the Montreal Canadiens to make the playoffs at +156.
Even if the Habs go on to make the playoffs, I won’t be able to convince a Leafs and a Sens fan that they should regret passing on that bet.
Plus, suddenly it looks like the Canadiens could give us a sweat after back-to-back regulation losses to a pair of California teams on home ice over the weekend.
No surprise, it was the red-hot Cutter Gauthier with the winner in the final minutes of regulation on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Ottawa bounced back from a regulation loss to Montreal on Wednesday with back-to-back wins over the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks on the weekend to pull back within striking distance of a Wild Card spot.
What are the chances the Senators make the playoffs?
Let’s dive into FanDuel’s updated NHL futures in this Morning Coffee for Monday March 16th, 2026.
Senators Surge As Eastern Conference Playoff Race Heats Up
Not even the most hardcore Senators fan would have expected their team to secure at least a point in each of their final 25 regular season games.
The bad news is that one of Ottawa’s two regulation losses dating back to January came against a rival that they are chasing in the Eastern Conference standings.
The good news is that the Senators have played their best hockey since late January, with a remarkable 11-2-2 run over their previous 15 games.
Following a regulation loss to Montreal last Wednesday, Ottawa’s odds to make the playoffs flipped from -110 to +135 at FanDuel.
In terms of implied probability, the Senators went from essentially a coin flip to make the postseason before the loss to a 42.6 per cent chance to get in after the loss.
Since then, Ottawa has responded with back-to-back wins over the Ducks and Sharks, outscoring their opponents a combined 9-4 in those victories.
Meanwhile, Montreal was outscored 8-5 in back-to-back losses to San Jose and Anaheim at the Bell Centre.
Despite their recent stumbles, the Canadiens are still considered far more likely to make than miss the postseason at -550 – an 84.6 per cent implied chance.
The Senators odds have flipped from +135 to -145 – a 59.2 per cent implied probability they get in.
Montreal currently sits third in the Atlantic Division with 82 points and 16 games remaining.
The Habs have the seventh-most difficult remaining strength of schedule based on opponent win percentage.
Ottawa is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference standings with 77 points and 16 games remaining.
The Senators have the eighth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule.
Ottawa is five points back of Montreal for third in the Atlantic, and just three points back of the Boston Bruins and the Detroit Red Wings in the Wild Card spots.
The Sens might also need to leapfrog the Columbus Blue Jackets in ninth place with 79 points and 16 games to go.
Who knew the Blue Jackets were serving up their own version of Morning Coffee?
In addition to being one point out of a Wild Card spot, the Blue Jackets are two points back of both the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders for second and third place in the Metropolitan Division standings.
If we narrow our focus to Montreal, Boston, Detroit, and Ottawa in the Atlantic Division and Pittsburgh, New York, and Columbus in the Metropolitan Division, the most likely scenario is that two of those seven teams will miss the postseason.
If you can predict the two teams that will miss the playoffs, you can make a decent profit at FanDuel.
As it stands this morning, all seven teams highlighted above are plus money to miss the playoffs at FanDuel.
The Senators are considered the most likely to miss the playoffs at +110.
Then it’s the Bruins at +115, the Red Wings at +160, and the Blue Jackets at +170.
The Islanders are +270 to miss the playoffs.
The Penguins are +300 not to get in.
I could place a wager on any of the seven teams I’ve highlighted to make the playoffs, including the Sens.
On the flip side, I could also place a wager on any of those seven teams to miss the playoffs at a much better number.
Let’s start with the Eastern Conference team that has the longest odds to miss the playoffs.
With Sidney Crosby sidelined, Pittsburgh has gone 4-3-3 since the break to remain on track to make the playoffs.
Crosby has resumed skating with the Penguins, but we still don’t have confirmation for when he will return.
Combine Crosby’s status with the fact that Pittsburgh has the most difficult remaining strength of schedule based on opponent win percentage in the NHL, and there might be value fading the Penguins at +300 to miss the playoffs.
Four of Pittsburgh’s next five games are against two of the NHL’s best teams in the Colorado Avalanche and the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Penguins will also face the Winnipeg Jets, Senators, Dallas Stars, Islanders, and Red Wings to close out the month of March.
The Islanders visit the Maple Leafs, Senators, and Canadiens this week before hosting Columbus on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets will host the Hurricanes, New York Rangers, and Seattle Kraken before that date with the Isles.
Columbus has gone 5-1-4 in its previous 10 games and is 17-8-7 on home ice this season.
If they can find a way to secure five or six points on home ice this week, the Blue Jackets could very well find themselves in a battle for second place in the Metropolitan Division by the time they travel to face the Islanders on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Senators play three of their next four games against opponents that won’t make the playoffs.
Ottawa travels to face the Washington Capitals on Wednesday, then hosts the Islanders on Thursday and the Maple Leafs on Saturday before a trip to face the Rangers next Monday.
The Senators are three points back of both the Bruins and Red Wings, with a game in hand on Detroit.
The Red Wings are also without their top two centres.
Larkin and Copp both out two weeks, McLellan said
— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) March 12, 2026
Ottawa is still very much alive in the East playoff race.
The question now is whether all three of the Canadiens, Bruins, and Red Wings can hold them off in the standings.
With the most difficult remaining strength of schedule, and questions about both when Crosby will return and how ready he will be, Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs at +300 seems like decent value.
FanDuel also allows us to parlay multiple NHL teams to miss the playoffs.
A parlay with the Penguins and Red Wings to miss the playoffs could be found at +940 odds.
A parlay with Pittsburgh and Columbus to miss the playoffs is +980.
I’m willing to roll the dice on the Penguins to miss the playoffs at +300 this morning.
I’ll also sprinkle some coffee money on Pittsburgh and Detroit to both miss the playoffs at +940 odds.
With the Eastern Conference playoff race heating up, there’s an opportunity to take advantage if you can predict which teams will miss the postseason at FanDuel.
If you think there’s better value fading another NHL bubble team the rest of the way, hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.
With the surging Senators closing the gap, the Eastern Conference playoff race will be a lot of fun to watch down the stretch.
Have a great day, everyone!