If you squint your eyes just right, the Nashville Predators are still alive in the playoff race.
Ignore recent losses to the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers. Ignore that retiring general manager Barry Trotz traded away key role players ahead of the deadline – though declined to sell bigger assets like Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos.
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The season isn’t over and the Predators (29-28-9, 67 points) are not eliminated – they are four points behind the Seattle Kraken for the final wild card spot with 16 games to play.
But Nashville’s hopes are dwindling with every loss. According to Money Puck, as of March 16, the Predators have a 14.8% chance of making the playoffs. It had been at around 25% after beating Seattle in regulation on March 10, but things change quickly in the race for the Stanley Cup.
How can they tilt the odds back in their favor? Here’s the path to the playoffs for the Predators.
How the Nashville Predators can get back into playoff position
The Predators (67 points) are four points behind the Kraken (71 points) in the race for the final wild card spot. But it’s not just the Kraken the Predators have to worry about – the Los Angeles Kings (69 points) and San Jose Sharks (70 points) are also in the way, plus the resurgent Winnipeg Jets (66 points) are sneaking up.
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Five teams within five points of the playoffs with less than 20 games left.
To make it worse, Nashville is just 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. Eight points out of a possible 20 is not going to cut it in such a crowded bubble field.
But there’s good news for Nashville. Of their final 16 games, seven are against the other four competitors in the playoff race. If nothing else, the Predators must win these games to stay alive:
Nashville also owns a partial advantage in regulation wins tiebreaker, the most important tiebreaker after all games are played. Entering this week, the Predators have 22 regulation wins, better than the Kings (17) and Sharks (20), but fewer the Kraken (25) and Jets (23).
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If Nashville wins most of those games, they should be right there in the mix. But they also have tough matchups with playoff-ready teams like Vegas (March 21), Tampa (March 29), Utah (April 9), and Minnesota (April 11). In fact, of the Predators’ remaining schedule, only two games are against teams decidedly out of the playoff picture: Chicago (March 22) and New Jersey (March 26).
It’s never easy, but the Predators’ path to the playoffs is particularly difficult.
TROTZ: Nashville Predators’ present, future worse with Barry Trotz’s deadline moves
To put it plainly, the Predators cannot just “win the week” as they’ve preached this season. They must dominate the final month, including wins over their direct wild card competitors. The math is simple: Of the 32 points on the table, they need 22 points to get close and 24-26 points to be comfortable. 26 points would put them at 93 to finish the season, which should be the playoff cut line. That’s winning 13 of their final 16 games – an astonishing pace for a team with a season high win streak of three games – but it’s not an impossible task.
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Alex Daugherty is the Predators beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Alex at jdaugherty@gannett.com. Follow Alex on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @alexdaugherty1. Also check out our Predators exclusive Instagram page @tennessean_preds.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How the Nashville Predators can clinch the playoffs despite setbacks