The Tampa Bay Lightning (40-21-4) take on the Seattle Kraken (31-26-9) at Climate Pledge Arena on Tuesday, March 17 at 10 p.m. ET on TNT. The Lightning lost to the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2 in their last outing, while the Kraken are coming off a 6-2 victory over the Florida Panthers.

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Here is our prediction for who will claim the win in Tuesday’s matchup.

In the past 10 games, the Kraken have gone 4-6-0 while totaling 29 goals against 32 goals conceded. On 31 power-play opportunities during that time, they have scored four goals (12.9%).

Lightning vs. Kraken Predictions for Tuesday

Our computer model for this matchup predicts a final tally of Lightning 4, Kraken 3.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-195)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 5.7 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Kraken (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning (40-21-4 overall) have a 9-4-13 record in games that have required overtime.
Tampa Bay is 8-9-2 (18 points) in its 19 games decided by one goal.
In the seven games this season the Lightning scored just one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
Tampa Bay has finished 4-8-3 in the 15 games this season when it scored two goals (registering 11 points).
The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 41 games (34-7-0, 68 points).
In the 23 games when Tampa Bay has scored a lone power-play goal, it registered 30 points after finishing 14-7-2.
In games when it has outshot opponents, Tampa Bay is 21-11-3 (45 points).
The Lightning’s opponents have had more shots in 29 games. The Lightning went 18-10-1 in those contests (37 points).
Kraken Splits and Trends

The Kraken have a 6-9-15 record in overtime games this season and a 31-26-9 overall record.
Seattle has earned 25 points (10-5-5) in its 20 games decided by one goal.
This season the Kraken recorded only one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
When Seattle has scored two goals this season, they’ve earned eight points (2-10-4 record).
The Kraken have earned 61 points in their 39 games with at least three goals scored.
Seattle has scored a single power-play goal in 30 games this season and has registered 37 points from those matchups.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Seattle has posted a record of 6-11-2 (14 points).
The Kraken have been outshot by opponents 42 times this season, and earned 51 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Kraken Game Time and TV Channel

When: Tuesday, March 17, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET
TV Channel: TNT
Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington

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