The Athletic has live coverage of the First Four from 2026 Men’s March Madness.
Let’s try this again.
Last postseason, I picked Duke — the top team in KenPom’s rankings at the time, led by a freshman Wooden Award winner — to win the national title, beating a fellow No. 1 seed in the title game. That prediction looked good for a while, until the Blue Devils’ all-time collapse to Houston in the Final Four. Instead of hanging a sixth banner in Durham, that team earned an infamous honorific: one of the best teams ever to not win it all.
But this year, I’m running it back. Give me Duke — again the top team in KenPom’s rankings, led by the likely freshman Wooden Award winner — to cut down the nets in April. And, yeah, I’m even doubling down on my prediction that Jon Scheyer’s team sees another No. 1 seed on the final Monday of this season.
My rationale, much like last March, starts with Duke’s generational freshman superstar: Cameron Boozer, who leads the Blue Devils — like Cooper Flagg a year ago — in almost every major statistical category.
But beyond the future top-three NBA Draft pick, this Duke squad is the definition of sum over parts. It still has NBA talent — maybe not so much that every starter will be drafted in June, like last year’s team — but its strength is its role definition, the key to a record-tying 12 ranked wins this season. (The only other team ever with 12 ranked wins entering March Madness is Arizona, which I have Duke facing in an all-time championship game.) Everyone buying into Jon Scheyer’s scheme is the reason the Blue Devils are 7-2 in games decided by 6 points or less this season, with their only two losses all year — to Texas Tech on a neutral site, and rival UNC on the road — coming by a combined 4 points, after Duke led by double digits in both contests.
I am a little worried about Duke’s injury situation, with point guard Caleb Foster out at least until the Final Four, if not the rest of the season. But Cayden Boozer’s performance during the ACC tournament — and his twin brother’s consistency — impressed me enough not to waver on the best team in the sport all season.
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East
Final Four pick: Duke
The most stacked region in the bracket, the East features Scheyer, Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley. Six coaches who have made a Final Four, with 23 combined appearances, and you could reasonably argue for any of them adding another in the coming weeks. Ultimately, though, it’s hard to ignore Duke’s experience winning close games — including over two other No. 1 seeds in Michigan and Florida, plus Izzo’s Michigan State team.
Most stressful decision: St. John’s over Kansas
Kansas is the most unpredictable team in the NCAA Tournament, as capable of making the Final Four as it is crashing out in the round of 32. That’s especially true against a St. John’s team that’s only lost once since Jan. 6. Darryn Peterson — the potential No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft — is as talented as anyone, but who knows how (or if) he’ll play in March, following one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.
Best chance at an upset: South Florida over Louisville
Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. — a likely lottery pick this summer — missed the ACC tournament with a reaggravated back injury, and did not 100 percent commit to being ready for the Cardinals’ NCAA Tournament opener. Without him, Louisville’s shot quality falls off markedly, which is scary, because nine of its 10 losses have come when shooting under 36 percent from 3-point range. Without Brown, the Cards could chuck themselves right out of the Big Dance.
Matchup I hope we see: Duke vs. UConn
I’ve been manifesting this matchup for weeks, either in the Elite Eight or Final Four. Because what more could you ask for? Two of the most storied brands in college basketball. Elite coaches. Bloodthirsty fans. You could — and I would — argue these are two of the top five programs going in the modern era, as poised to stay at the top as anyone.
Midwest
Final Four pick: Michigan
Ever since the Players Era Festival in November, I haven’t been able to un-see Michigan bludgeoning Gonzaga by 40 points, using the best defense and frontline in college basketball to deal Mark Few the worst loss of his Zags career. Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg is as versatile a player as there is in the country, 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara is a shot-blocking and passing savant, and Morez Johnson Jr. is basically a human battering ram with basketball magnets for hands. The Wolverines have their pressure points — 3-point shooting and turnovers, mainly — but a favorable regional draw lacks many teams with the personnel to punish UM.
Most stressful decision: Iowa State over Virginia
Virginia pushed Duke to the brink in the ACC championship game, and its nine-deep rotation has an underrated blend of versatility, shot-making and rim protection. But Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson has arguably been the best player in the country not named Cameron Boozer — a dizzying 6-9 blend of passing, rebounding and defense — while Milan Momcilovic is the second-best 3-point shooter in America, at 49.6 percent from deep.
Best chance at an upset: Miami (Ohio) over SMU
The RedHawks are 6.5-point underdogs as of Monday night for their First Four game, so it would count as an upset. But after nail-biting my way through multiple of Miami’s nine one-possession or overtime wins this season, I believe the RedHawks are capable of winning a game in March. That they drew inconsistent SMU — which allegedly will return its best defender, BJ Edwards, after missed games — only boosts the chance of a win for a ready-made Cinderella. Oh, and one more thing? Take the over.
Matchup I hope we see: Michigan vs. Iowa State
Lendeborg against Jefferson would be one of the most fun forward matchups all season, but the real juice here is two top-five defenses with clear stylistical differences. Michigan uses its gargantuan size to build a force field around the rim, while ISU — per usual, under TJ Otzelberger — thrives on picking opponents’ pockets and scoring points off turnovers. I’m not sure the Cyclones have the frontcourt strength to hang with Michigan, but they absolutely have the 3-point prowess to level the field.
Arizona, led by Jaden Bradley, has been both clutch and balanced all season. (Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
West
Final Four pick: Arizona
Arizona, like Duke, has been one of the most clutch teams in college basketball, going 6-2 in games decided by one or two possessions, with four of those wins over eventual No. 1 or 2 seeds: Florida, UConn, Iowa State and Houston. That’s in no small part because of Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, the most clutch player in the entire tournament. (Go watch his late-game heroics against Florida … or UCLA … or Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament.) Including Bradley, Tommy Lloyd has seven players averaging between 9 and 19 points per game, making for the most balanced team in America. There’s nothing not to like.
Most stressful decision: Arkansas over Wisconsin
Before the bracket reveal, this could’ve been a trendy Sweet 16 game — or even a sleeper Elite Eight bout. Instead, it’s the juiciest round of 32 matchup, featuring some of the most explosive scoring guards in the field. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are playing terrific for the Badgers right now, but SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr. is on a Kemba Walker-esque heater, averaging 28.5 points, 6.5 assists and shooting 50 percent from 3 over his last eight games.
Best chance at an upset: BYU over Gonzaga
Mark Few said not to expect center Braden Huff — who hasn’t played since Jan. 8 because of a serious knee injury — to suit up the first weekend, which puts Gonzaga in trouble against the most talented individual scorer in college basketball, BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa. The Cougars skidded down the stretch, especially after losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL, but the 6-9 Dybantsa is the type of player who can single-handedly win Kevin Young’s team a few games.
Matchup I hope we see: Arizona vs. Arkansas
If anyone can give the Wildcats a run for their money in the West, it’ll be John Calipari and the Hogs, who enter March as one of college basketball’s hottest teams. Acuff looks like a top-five NBA Draft pick with his current form, but Calipari — whose success this season has Kentucky fans in shambles — has sneakily built a well-balanced, explosive, athletic group around him. I still side with Arizona’s size and balance, but Arkansas’ top-six offense won’t go away lightly.
South
Final Four pick: Florida
Per Bart Torvik, UF has been the third-best team in college basketball since the new year, and one of just three squads — alongside Duke and Arizona — with a top-10 offense and defense. UF started the year 5-4 with narrow losses to Arizona, Duke and UConn, but has rounded into form by playing through its frontcourt, which returned from last season’s title team. Florida is top 10 in offensive and defensive rebounding rate, and while its season-long shooting splits look dire — just 30.8 percent from 3, a sub-300 mark nationally — the Gators have also quietly made 37.5 percent from deep over their last seven games. Going back-to-back is on the table.
Most stressful decision: Illinois over Houston
Picking against Houston and Kelvin Sampson just feels wrong, especially with such a dynamic lead guard in freshman Kingston Flemings. But the Coogs’ defense hasn’t been up to its typical standard this season, and Houston is still prone to untimely bouts of stagnant offense. On the flip side, while Illinois has lost five of its last nine, four of those were by one possession in overtime. This may age poorly, but I’m too intoxicated by the Balkan Bloc’s offensive upside.
Best chance at an upset: Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s
Bucky McMillan has worked wonders his first season at A&M (and at the high-major level), and if you’re not prepared for his trademark “Bucky Ball” — full-court pressing for a full 40 minutes — then it’s easy for it to get the better of you. Saint Mary’s isn’t particularly sound with the ball, nor does it have the athletes the Aggies do, which could prove a fatal combination against a team playing with house money.
Matchup I hope we see: Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska
Mostly because this means Nebraska will have finally won its first NCAA Tournament game, but also because it guarantees at least one of this season’s best stories makes the Sweet 16. Plus, Mark Byington’s offense against the Huskers’ no-middle defense — what Texas Tech famously used to make the 2019 NCAA championship game — would be a compelling chess match, even beyond the off-court storylines.