(Photo Credit: @GoldenKnights on X/Twitter)

There are just 15 games left on the schedule, which means it’s officially time to start checking in on Points To Elimination.

For those new to SinBin.vegas, Points To Elimination is a stat we created in Year 1 to track exactly how close the Golden Knights are to clinching a playoff berth. Like a “magic number” in baseball, Points To Elimination are ticked off each time Vegas earn points and when opposing teams fail to earn them.

Current VGK Points To Elimination
Vancouver 5
Calgary 14
Los Angeles 26
Seattle 28
Edmonton 28
San Jose 29
Anaheim 32

Chicago 18
St. Louis 19
Winnipeg 23
Nashville 24
Utah 29
Minnesota 41
Dallas 49
Colorado 54

To clinch a playoff berth, the Golden Knights need to reduce the number to zero for either five teams in the Pacific or eight teams in the Western Conference.

With 15 games to go, VGK have a total of 30 points in their control. Every other team in the West has between 14 and 17 games left. Here’s a look at the percentage of points necessary for the Golden Knights to eliminate each team. (These are points won by VGK or lost by each team)

Percentage of available points needed for VGK to eliminate
Vancouver 8.1%
Calgary 23.3%
Los Angeles 43.3%
Seattle 45.2%
San Jose 45.2%
Edmonton 48.3%
Anaheim 53.3%

Chicago 29.0%
St. Louis 31.7%
Winnipeg 37.1%
Nashville 37.1%
Utah 50.0%
Minnesota 70.7%
Dallas 81.7%
Colorado 87.1%

VGK can “eliminate” Vancouver as soon as Thursday, as each team has two games. If the Golden Knights win them both, the Canucks would just have to lose one game in any fashion to become the first team checked off the list.

(Reminder: Points To Elimination are calculated solely in relation to the Golden Knights. So, the number reaching zero means they cannot pass Vegas. It does NOT mean that team cannot reach the playoffs.)

Based on the numbers, it’s extremely likely VGK will eliminate Vancouver, Calgary, Chicago, St. Louis, Winnipeg, and Nashville. That means to clinch a playoff berth, they’ll only need to knock out two more teams.

Another way to look at it is to consider how many points each team can get if the Golden Knights reach a certain plateau. VGK currently have 76 points with 15 games to go. Let’s show aggressive, conservative, and pessimistic options.

How many points each team would need to finish above Vegas
(Points percentage needed in parentheses)

Aggressive
*VGK collect 20 points in the final 15 games, finish with 96 points*

Anaheim – 18 (.533)
Edmonton – 20 (.714)
Seattle – 24 (.750)
Los Angeles – 24 (.800)
San Jose – 25 (.735)

Colorado – 0
Dallas – 1 (.033)
Minnesota – 7 (.250)
Utah – 19 (.679)

Conservative
*VGK collect 15 points in the final 15 games, finish with 91 points*

Anaheim – 13 (.433)
Edmonton – 15 (.536)
Seattle – 19 (.594)
Los Angeles – 19 (.633)
San Jose – 20 (.588)

Colorado – 0
Dallas – 0
Minnesota – 2 (.071)
Utah – 14 (.500)

Pessimistic
*VGK collect 11 points in the final 15 games, finish with 87 points*

Anaheim – 9 (.300)
Edmonton – 11 (.393)
Seattle – 15 (.469)
Los Angeles – 15 (.500)
San Jose – 16 (.471)

Colorado – 0
Dallas – 0
Minnesota – 0
Utah – 10 (.357)

So, as you can see, the Golden Knights pretty clearly control their own destiny. It’s no surprise that the projections still have VGK at a 90% or better chance to reach the playoffs.

They just have to stay the course and not slip up.