Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Ottawa Senators. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.

NHL Predictions: New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

How to Watch TV: MSGSN, RDS2, TSN5

2025–26 Season Series: Islanders lead 1-0 

This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents who are both in the heat of a tight Stanley Cup Playoff picture. The Islanders are third in the Eastern Conference Metropolitan Division standings after 68 games played. Their record is 39-24-5, putting them at 83 points. Meanwhile, the Senators are sixth in the Eastern Conference Atlantic Division with 77 points. After 67 games, their record is 34-24-9. With the playoff implications, the two points are valuable to both teams tonight. This is the second of three matchups between these two teams; the Islanders won the first 5-4. That game was in the same place as tonight’s at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario.

Eric Canha/CSM(Credit Image: © Eric Canha/Cal Sport Media

The Islanders Story

The Islanders come into this game on a two-game winning streak and winners in three of their last four. Their offence has been doing well over the last few games, scoring three goals in each of the last two wins. They still rank 22nd in the league in goals for at 2.88 per game. Team point leader Mathew Barzal picked up three assists in the last game and has 16 points in the last 14 games. At the same time, Brayden Schenn picked up his first goal with the team as well. He has three points in five games since the trade. His acquisition has allowed Calum Ritchie to move to the wing, and he has five points in his last five games since the move.

Defensively, things have tightened up over the last few games. They rank in the top three in goals-against-per-game, sitting third with 2.75 per game. They have allowed two goals or fewer in three of the last five games. Part in thanks to Matthew Schaefer, who leads the team in time on ice and has 10 points in the last 10 games. Ilya Sorokin is the main reason, as he is 5-2-0 since the Olympic break. On the season, he is 25-15-2 with a .914 save percentage. That save percentage is tied for second in the NHL, putting him in the Vezina Trophy conversation.

The Senators Story

The Senators come into this game after having a two-game winning streak snapped in their last game. They have been playing well despite the loss, winners in five of their last seven games. Their offence ranks in the top 10 in goals per game with 3.36. While they rank high, the offence has been down the last five games, scoring two goals or fewer in four of the last five. Tim Stutzle leads his team in points with 71 points in 67 games, including 31 goals on the season. He has been hot recently with 15 points in his last 17 games. His linemate, Drake Batherson, has 59 points in 64 games and has four goals over the last four games. The top line duo has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for their team.

Defensively, they don’t rank as well, 20th in the league in goals against with 3.11 goals against per game. In the last two games, they have given up four goals in each. Their penalty kill hasn’t done them any favours, ranking 30th in the league with a 73.7% kill rate. Their goaltending has been suspect as well. Starter Linus Ullmark is 21-10-7 but with an .885 save percentage. After he took the loss last night, it should be backup James Reimer. He is 4-3-1 with an .882 save percentage.

However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.

Prediction

Coming into this game, both teams have been playing well. Both teams are also chasing the playoffs this season, so this will be a high-intensity type of game. While Ottawa will have the home ice advantage, they won’t be rested on the second of a back-to-back set. They also have a slight offensive edge in the rankings. The Islanders, on the other hand, will have the edge defensively, in between the pipes, and they will be the rested team. We think those factors will lead to the Islanders picking up their third win in a row.

Prediction: Islanders win 4-2 

Prop Bets

Popular sports books have the Islanders as the underdogs at +116 on the moneyline. We like the value on those odds and would take it. The over/under is set at 5.5. With the Islanders’ hot scoring recently and a backup goalie for Ottawa, we would take the over at -140. As far as anytime goal scorers for the Islanders, Calum Ritchie is at +380. He has been hot since his move to the wing. We think that continues in this one. As far as the Senators, Tim Stutzle at +210 is a good bet. He scored last game and has 31 goals on the season. We think he adds another tonight.

Main Photo Credit: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images

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