Arguably, no team will be more disadvantaged by the NHL’s Divisional playoff format than the Minnesota Wild. The Wild own the fifth-most points in the NHL. Three of the four teams with the most points will be the top seeds in their brackets, playing a middling opponent. All four teams with more points are slated to have home-ice advantage in the first round.

The Wild will (likely) have neither benefit. They’re on track to face either the Dallas Stars or Colorado Avalanche in a series, as underdogs without home-ice advantage. In the first round.

It’s patently unfair, and given that Bill Guerin is never shy to speak his mind, the Wild GM has been public about this issue.

“For me, personally, I would like to see [the format] change,” Guerin said on the TSN program “First Up with Korolnek & Colaiacovo,”

Guerin noted that no matter what, Minnesota would have a tough first-round matchup with any team they’d face, but re-emphasized his complaint. “That’s really the crappy part of it, somebody’s going home. … I do agree with you that one of the top three teams should not be going home [in Round 1].”

Bill Guerin is candid and blunt, which endears him to some Wild fans. It had to be cathartic for Wild fans thinking the same thing, as the team’s path to its first playoff series win since 2016 has an unnecessary hurdle. But those qualities can also cause the GM to make unforced errors, and this was one of them. 

Guerin was honest, and that honesty revealed doubt. Doubt that his team can truly take on the Avalanche or Stars. Doubt that his team can break its streak of playoff futility. Doubt that his team can bring home a Stanley Cup this season.

There’s a time to raise the issue, and it’s behind closed doors at the GM meetings held this week. It’s a place where a GM can theoretically effect change. A place where the leader of a team can air this grievance without it getting into print, and in front of his players’ eyes. Lobbying for it on the radio doesn’t move the issue forward, and his players can hear their GM preemptively making excuses for why they didn’t get it done… again.

Contrast that with Jim Nill‘s attitude. Nill’s Dallas Stars have gotten through the Central Division gauntlet three years in a row. Last season, he was in a similar situation. Dallas faced the 102-point Avalanche in Round 1 with home-ice advantage and had a Western Conference Semi-Final matchup against the 116-point Winnipeg Jets. His Stars might have to do it again, this time against the Wild and Avalanche.

Robert Tiffin of Stars Thoughts brought this up with Nill in January, who was matter-of-fact about the challenges. “You deal with it. It’s the way it’s set up,” he said. “To be the best, you gotta beat the best. It is what it is.”

Clichés? Maybe. But that’s the confidence that comes from being a long-time GM of a team coming off three-straight Conference Final appearances and an additional Stanley Cup Final on his resume. Nill knows his team can get the job done. He’s seen it.

Guerin’s a much younger GM, with no playoff success to speak of in the big chair. The baggage of Minnesota’s first-round exits appeared to get to him in 2023, when he lost to Nill’s Stars and got combative with The Athletic’s Michael Russo over the first-round stumbling block.

“There’s been this narrative that the Wild can’t get past the first round,” Guerin said of his team, which had just completed its seventh consecutive first-round exit. “In my mind, that’s not the narrative of this team. We have a lot of new players, a lot of young players that are just getting going, and they weren’t part of that… I refuse to hold our players that are new here responsible for what’s happened in the past.”

Since then, Guerin’s Wild lost another first-round playoff series (vs. the Vegas Golden Knights last year). Five of those came under Guerin’s watch. Maybe not all the players have ownership over that, but at this point, Guerin undoubtedly does.

He also, arguably, has the most to lose from another first-round exit. It’s not just the stigma of a sixth-straight playoff loss and the scrutiny that will come with it. Guerin will need to convince new arrival Quinn Hughes that Minnesota is the place for his long-term future.

Hughes thriving with the Wild might make the team’s pitch easier, but having the proof-of-concept that comes from winning a playoff round might keep the star defenseman from being tempted by free agency in summer 2027.

Guerin puts himself front and center in the media. He speaks with reporters, radio personalities, and even podcast hosts far more than he needs to, and he seems to value being a spokesperson for the team. That’s a credit to him. But there’s a way for Guerin to have made his point without potentially sowing seeds of doubt in his team.

Maybe it’s something like:

We feel good about how we match up with any team in the Western Conference. We feel like we’ve played both of the other top teams in our division tough. But I get your point. Imagine getting 110 points or whatever and having to face us in the first round? Or winning a President’s Trophy and your reward is playing us in the second? That’s a tough road for a contender.

There’s a risk of underdelivering, but part of the formula for an underdog, upstart team is confidence, even if it’s irrational. That goes for the players, but it especially goes for the Wild fanbase. They’ve seen great regular seasons turn into six extra games of disappointment. After watching Patrick Kane‘s stanchion goal, Jake Allen stonewalling Minnesota, several blown series leads, and Ryan Hartman‘s overturned game-winning goal, they are primed to clench up whenever something goes wrong.

Like, say, having the third-best record in the playoffs and facing the second-best team in the first round.

This year is supposed to be different, with Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov, and Matt Boldy all in their primes. Three superstars! A core that should be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone. That should be the message, to both the team and fans: Get on board, we’re gonna beat the best and become the best.

Fretting about an unfair playoff format sends a different message.

Don’t get your hopes too high, because this story could end in a very familiar way.