by Adam Wodon/Managing Editor (@chn-adam-wodon)
With the games done, we can project a bracket for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
This is the first year of using the NPI over the Pairwise, but not much has changed in terms of what to do once we know the final 16.
The official Selection Show is on ESPN on Sunday at 3 p.m. (ET).
This is the way things shake down, and note that there are a number of judgment calls here. The Committee may choose differently, which we’ll discuss after. But here’s one projection:
Albany
1. Michigan vs. 16. Bentley
8. Minnesota Duluth vs. 9. Penn State
Sioux Falls
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Merrimack
7. Providence vs. 10. Quinnipiac
Worcester
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Connecticut
6. Dartmouth vs. 12. Wisconsin
Loveland
4. Western Michigan vs. 13. Minnesota State
5. Denver vs. 11. Cornell
Note a number of things here.
First off, I’ve argued many times that it shouldn’t be lined up for another Denver/Western Michigan game. But it’s very unlikely the Committee will listen to that. So instead we have a “perfect,” if you will, 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 setup.
And since Denver must be in Loveland, so must, then Western Michigan.
Michigan is very likely to be in Albany, just based on proximity of what’s left. North Dakota makes perfect sense for Sioux Falls, so that leaves Michigan State for Worcester.
The 2 seeds then just fall into line from there.
As do the 4 seeds, without much fanfare.
The only issue is with the 3 seeds, because Dartmouth cannot play Cornell — its natural 6-11 matchup — or Quinnipiac. So that leaves Dartmouth with either Wisconsin or Penn State, and Wisconsin at 12 is much closer to the “normal” 11 than Penn State at 9.
So that seems like a no-brainer.
However — and here’s the big caveat. The Committee may very well shift a bunch of stuff around for attendance purposes. Look at that Sioux Falls Regional, with three Eastern teams there. It would make a ton of sense to swap the Providence-Quinnipiac game to Albany, and have Minnesota Duluth play Penn State in Albany. Of course, then you have the same issue as with Denver/WMU, where two NCHC teams that just played each are lined up. But we’ve already established that the Committee doesn’t care.
The other option would be for just Quinnipiac and Penn State to swap.
If they really wanted to go crazy, Cornell could go to Albany, swapping with Penn State. But Penn State is not much further to Albany than Ithaca, and Penn State will have a crowd, so maybe that’s moot.
We’ll know for sure Sunday.