Knowing that there are 10 teams in the Eastern Conference with more points than any team in the Pacific Division, Edmonton’s Connor McDavid described the NHL Pacific playoff race as a “pillow fight.”

Unquestionably, the Eastern Conference, is showing a much nastier level of competitiveness.

In the past, a team with 95 or more points has a 97% chance of qualifying for the Eastern playoffs. This season, the current projection is 96 to 99 points will be needed to grab the last wildcard spot. What that means is the Red Wings will likely need to win six or seven of their final 12 games to end their nine-year playoff drought.

Over the past three seasons, the minimum points needed to qualify in the East were 91 (2024-25), 91 (2023-24), 92 (2022-23) and 85 (2021-22). Two of those NHL seasons should have asterisks. The Red Wings recorded 91 points in 2023-24 and missed on a tiebreaker. In 2021-22, all eight playoff teams had 100 or more points, but no team below those eight had more than 84. In other words, the Washington Capitals, the second wildcard team, reached 100 points but would have qualified if it had 85.

The stress level of the Eastern Conference race is overflowing to say the least.

The Red Wings’ 4-2 loss to Boston Saturday was hard on the fan base because the Red Wings led that game 2-1 in the third period. It feels like a costly loss because the Bruins and Red Wings were tied in the wildcard race.

But despite the loss, Detroit defensive Moritz Seider sounded an optimistic tone. Disappointed? For sure. Devastated? Nope.

“We’re in a great spot to fight our own battles,” Seider said. “I think that has to be the message. The last couple of years we were waiting for help, and now it’s all in our hands and we have enough games left to force our luck. So I think it’s a great opportunity.”

Path to Playoffs Is There

Seider isn’t wrong. The Red Wings don’t have anything resembling a guarantee. But despite the Boston loss, the math still works for the Red Wings. They hold an NHL wildcard spot and reaching the likely number to hold that position is manageable.

With 12 games remaining, they have the possibility of 24 more points. If the playoff number turns out to be 97 points, they need another 13 points. A 6-5-1 record in the final 12 games would give them those 13 points. That’s a .541 points percentage and Detroit’s current points percentage after 70 games is .600.

If 99 points is required to qualify, the Red Wings will then need 15 points. That would require them to go 7-4-1. That’s a .625 points percentage. That’s a tougher ask. But even at 99 points. the Red Wings could lose five of the 12 games and still make it. From here on out, the Red Wings (according to Tankathon.com) have the league’s 10th hardest schedule. But the Boston Bruins have the hardest NHL schedule moving forward and the Columbus Blue Jackets come in at second hardest. The New York Islanders are third, followed by Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at fifth and sixth. Ottawa is seventh and Montreal is ninth.

 

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