Numbers For The Morning After, with Chris Cerullo
📸 : RMNB

The Washington Capitals forced the last game of their homestand to overtime in a battle against the current kings of the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche. However, the Caps couldn’t get the job done in the extra frame, falling 3-2.

Another game where they played relatively well. Feels like the definition of too little, too late, though.

The Capitals held the juggernaut Avalanche to just five high-danger chances at five-on-five, including a second period where they didn’t record a single one. On the flip side, they created nine of their own, but unfortunately, only scored one. Yes, that is the sound of the same problem from most of the season being a problem again.
Logan Thompson has been so ridiculously good of late, but he’s probably the reason the Capitals didn’t close this game out as winners in regulation. The team’s offense isn’t high-powered enough to make up for a goaltending gaffe, and that first Avalanche goal sure was one. Overall, Thompson made 21 saves on the 24 shots he faced. According to MoneyPuck, he allowed 0.81 more goals than expected. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 0.63 more goals than expected for Colorado.
Alex Ovechkin did score his 1,000th career goal, regular season and playoffs combined, to send the game to overtime. Ovi needs to score 17 more goals to surpass Wayne Gretzky for the all-time mark there. I don’t think he’s scoring 17 more goals this season, so if he wants that record, he’ll need a new contract.

Ovechkin’s 0.53 goals-per-game rate since turning 35 on Sept. 17, 2020, is the highest in NHL history by a player after their 35th birthday. In addition, Ovechkin has scored an NHL record 447 goals since turning 30.

— Capitals PR (@CapitalsPR) March 22, 2026

Cole Hutson tallied his first career assist on Ovechkin’s goal, but he really had a tough time in the game overall. With him on the ice at five-on-five, the Capitals posted negative differentials in shot attempts (-17), shots on goal (-7), scoring chances (-4), and high-danger chances (-1). Not the worst day in the world, especially considering how limited Colorado still was in terms of chances, but you want to see Hutson in the other zone a lot more often.
Justin Sourdif scored his 14th goal of the year, moving him just one shy of becoming the first Capitals rookie since…Ryan Leonard…to score 15 goals in a season. Before Leonard, Ovechkin was the most recent. The Capitals’ 30 goals by rookies this season are the third most in the NHL, behind only the New York Islanders (36) and Montreal Canadiens (35).
Even after this recent string of good results and play, the Capitals’ playoff chances have dropped to seven percent, per MoneyPuck. So, basically, any winning or movement in the standings from this point on is just hurting their first-round draft pick. I’d still like to see them play well, though. I’m just being realistic about what that entails.

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