The preseason talk of the Pittsburgh Penguins getting a top-five draft pick and potentially a franchise cornerstone has long since faded, replaced by the buzz of a playoff chase and the daily anxiety of watching the standings.

However, the once 91% chance of the Penguins making the playoffs suddenly seems more like a 50/50 proposition. The Penguins have won a few games despite their extraordinary schedule from coast to coast against the NHL’s best, but the cracks in their game are widening.

Advertisement

The problems are getting worse as they fought through themselves for a shootout win they probably didn’t deserve against the Winnipeg Jets and cratered Sunday against the Carolina Hurricanes.

The New York Islanders rebounded for a big win over the Columbus Blue Jackets Sunday night, who otherwise have been unbeatable.

Now, the Penguins are flirting with their worst-case scenario of not just missing the playoffs, but also not getting a lottery pick. It is the worst of both worlds as captain Sidney Crosby and the veterans are in danger of missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season, the current or new owners missing out on millions of playoff revenues, and general manager Kyle Dubas will have to continue the stealth rebuild with a top pick well outside the top 10.

For draft math, the Penguins are 13 points ahead of the LA Kings, who are the 21st overall team, in line for the 11th overall pick. In other words, the Penguins could lose every game remaining and still have a little more than a minuscule chance of a lottery draft pick capable of getting the first overall pick.

Advertisement

Yes, Penguins vice president of player personnel Wes Clark is on a heater for finding talent with later first-round picks and second-rounders, but the Penguins lack foundational pieces for the next chapter. And Clark is human. His ability to identify talent others miss and current hot streak are no guarantee of finding impactful NHL talent with a 14th or 15th overall pick.

It’s the playoffs or bust, because if they miss now, the season will absolutely be a bust.

Penguins Playoff Math

The Penguins’ magic number was 22 points before their loss and the New York Islanders’ win on Sunday. The number remained at 22, but the Eastern Conference got interesting.

Advertisement

Magic Numbers

Penguins: 22 points.
Blue Jackets: 23 points.
Boston Bruins (wild card): 22 points.
Islanders (wild card): 22 points.

The top two teams out of the playoffs, the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators, have magic numbers of 24 and 26 points, respectively.

Four of the six teams will make it.

Remember when PHN presented math that the Penguins needed just 10 more wins or the equivalent to get to the traditional line of demarcation of 95 points? That math didn’t factor in the impenetrable Columbus Blue Jackets’ pace.

So, the traditional line of 95 points is no longer relevant this season, as most of the teams in contention will surpass it. At the current pace, there will be at least one team with at least 95 points which does not make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And there could be two.

Advertisement

Assuming each team will lose at least three times in their final 12 games, it’s a race to eight wins, or as close as four of the six teams can get.

The post Penguins Flirting with Worst-Case Scenario appeared first on Pittsburgh Hockey Now.

Related Headlines