(Photo Credit: @GoldenKnights on X/Twitter)

The Golden Knights are not where they are used to being at this point in the season. Despite still holding a position squarely in the playoff picture, sitting 2nd in the Pacific division, VGK’s 78 points in 71 games is by far the worst output in franchise history.

Naturally, this has led to the unrelenting question of, why?

The first place most people turn to dig deeper into what makes a team great or is causing them to struggle is the fancy, advanced analytics. That data screams that the Golden Knights have one very clear problem. Goaltending.

Vegas currently holds a Top 5 place in expected goal share with the #2-ranked expected offense (xGF) and #11-ranked expected defense (xGA). The goaltending sits at #31 with a whopping -26.2 goals saved above expected. (See those numbers here, courtesy of HockeyStats.com)

It’s extremely easy to take these numbers and jump to the conclusion that if the Golden Knights received average to above-average goaltending, they’d be one of the best teams in the league. This concept is also appealing because it feels so easy to fix.

However, the conclusion lacks important context, and that’s been displayed clearly over the last 14 games since the Olympics when VGK have received average to above average goaltending, yet are still 4-7-0.

It’s all about framing.

Watch, I’ll frame the numbers differently to show why it’s not goaltending but goal scoring that has been the main problem for VGK this season.

But, before I do, understand that the conclusion I’m about to prove is also not the end-all, be-all for the Golden Knights. You’re going to read these numbers and say, “wow, if they could just score more, they’d be one of the best teams in the league,” which is remarkably similar to the conclusion above about goaltending. We’ll get to the true conclusion later.

Ok, here we go with some stats.

Last night in Dallas, the Golden Knights scored three goals to beat the Stars. Each of the last seven times VGK have scored three or more goals they have won the game, a perfect 7-0-0. Meanwhile, they are winless when failing to score three in each of the last nine games, 0-9-0.

It’s not just a recent phenomenon, though. Since Christmas, the Golden Knights’ overall record is 15-17-4. They are 15-3-2 when they score three goals and 0-14-2 when they don’t.

Over the whole season, VGK are…
23-0-4 when scoring 4 or more
8-6-4 when scoring exactly 3
1-19-6 when scoring 2 or fewer

The league average for goals scored per game this season is 3.06, 214 goals in 70 games. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just call it three. So, scoring exactly three is considered average, more than three is above average, and less than three is below average.

When the Golden Knights receive above-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .958, or 46 of the possible 48 points.

When the Golden Knights receive below-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .154, or 8 of the possible 52 points.

Finally, when the Golden Knights receive league-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .556, which is slightly better than their actual points percentage of .549.

The team has been built to score goals. Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev, Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson are all considered above-average offensively and they make up most of VGK’s salary cap. Yet the Golden Knights have received above-average goal scoring in just 38.5% of games while receiving below-average goal scoring at almost the same rate (36.6%).

Notice that not once has there been any mention of goal against. When framed this way, it simply has not mattered. Score more than league average, win. Score less than league average, lose. And one of those two things has happened a whopping 75% of the games VGK have played this season.

As I said before, though, do not take these numbers and run with the overarching conclusion that the team does not score enough and that’s 100% to blame for why they aren’t comfortably leading the worst division in the history of the NHL.

Compared to past Golden Knights teams, there’s a way to frame this team as worse in literally every single area of the game aside from special teams.

The reality is that the blame falls on everyone. Offense, defense, and goaltending have all contributed to the Golden Knights sitting 18th in points percentage with just three weeks remaining in the season.

Boiling it down to one particular position, or worse, one particular player, is not only narrow-minded, it’s factually incorrect. (And don’t even get me started on blaming the head coach.)