NHL analyst details why stats favor Tampa Bay Lightning to win Stanley Cup

The Tampa Bay Lightning have failed to make noise in the NHL playoffs since their three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final between 2020 and 2022.

The Jon Cooper-led squad lost in the first round, twice to the champion Florida Panthers, during each of the past three postseasons.

But the team’s fortunes may be about to change. “Daily Faceoff” podcast host Brock Seguin shared a statistical analysis that points to the Lightning as the Stanley Cup favorite.

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For example, Seguin broke down numbers for the past 10 Stanley Cup winners. Ultimately, he chose key stats 5-on-5 goals-for percentage and expected goals-for percentage, 5-on-5 save percentage, power play-plus-penalty kill percentage and power play percentage.

“They were the stats that most closely correlated with all of those Stanley Cup champions. I just wanted to say, ‘Who’s in the running this year?’ And the Tampa Bay Lightning were the only team that checked the boxes in all five of those categories,” Seguin said on the podcast.

Tampa Bay is 43-21-5 with 13 games remaining in the regular season. Its 91 points rank third in the Eastern Conference and sixth in the NHL.

The Colorado Avalanche lead the league with 102 points. However, Seguin pointed out that Colorado’s poor power-play percentage is keeping the Avs from joining the conversation. For instance, the Avalanche rank 30th in power-play percentage at 16.5 percent.

Tampa Bay right wing Nikita Kucherov leads all NHL players with 119 points. Therefore, he is seeking his third consecutive Art Ross Trophy, which is presented to the league’s points leader.