This is a story about the Minnesota Wild, but I want to start by talking about Taco Bell.
In 1992, Taco Bell tried to open a location in Mexico. It failed.
In 2007, Taco Bell tried to open a location in Mexico. It failed again.
Do you know why Taco Bell failed in Mexico? Because they were bringing fake tacos to Mexico. They have real in Mexico. They’re cheap, authentic, and tasty! Taco Bell meat is mostly sand.
Mexico also has plenty of that, except it’s on the beach.
Taco Bell is a tasty snack. It’s fine for a quick dinner if you’re coming home late for work and have a hankering for a Mexican pizza. But it’s not real food.
Like Taco Bell, the Wild are a good product after sipping on one too many Mich Goldens. However, they’re mostly gritty and coarse. They don’t contain much substance. Still, in an altered state of mind, you can convince yourself they’re contenders.
The Wild would have gotten out of the first round if the St. Louis Blues hadn’t goalie’d them in 2016-17.
They were one game away from eliminating the Vegas Golden Knights in 2020-21.
What if they just kept the second-round pick and not traded for Gustav Nyquist at the deadline last year?
It’s easy to fall into the trap of doing mental gymnastics to believe that the Wild are a contender. Minnesota deserves one! Where else in the world do 21,000 people gather to watch a high school hockey championship?
Still, the Wild are looking like they’re headed for another first-round playoff exit this year. They don’t have a No. 1 center. They’ve recently lost to three irrelevant Eastern Conference teams: the Philadelphia Flyers, the New York Rangers, and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Chicago Blackhawks beat them in regulation for the first time since 2019. The Tampa Bay Lightning dumped them into the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.
By beating the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars earlier in the season, they told us they could take a game or two in a series. However, by playing down to non-competitive Eastern Conference teams when they should be pushing for home-ice advantage against the Stars, they told us they could easily slip against lesser first-round competition in a better format.
Bill Guerin likes to emphasize grit because you can’t quantify it. Like Taco Bell, his teams are full of sand. He’s using 1990s ideology in the analytics era to cover for his mistakes – like trading for Calen Addison and David Jiricek, or not tanking for a No. 1 center. In doing so, he’s encouraging fans to believe his “scrappy” team can win as an underdog.
However, the Wild aren’t an underdog. They play in Minnesota! It’s like calling the Detroit Red Wings or Boston Bruins a plucky franchise. The Toronto Maple Leafs, the Montreal Canadiens, and the Vancouver Canucks don’t contend because they’re mismanaged. They have all the resources in the world. People in Canada love hockey!
The same goes for the Wild.
Instead, Sun Belt teams with better general managers have filled the void. Random teams based in Florida and in the desert are outwitting the better-supported teams and reaping the benefits.
Trading for Quinn Hughes shouldn’t be an opportunistic attempt to cover for mediocre management. He should be the final piece to a championship team. He moves the puck, but he’s not a No. 1 center. That’s an unfair ask of a defenseman who, by the way, can leave as a free agent after next season.
We can’t quantify grit, but we can measure the Wild’s chances of winning a Cup this year. Per MoneyPuck, they have a 48% chance of advancing to the second round and 23% chance of reaching the Western Conference Finals. That’s the same odds as the Anaheim Ducks.
The betting markets tell a similar story. Colorado is +300 to win the Stanley Cup, where they’ve been most of the year. Dallas is +1000, and the Edmonton Oilers are +1100 – they’re fringe contenders. The Wild are +1800. Vegas is giving the Buffalo Sabres better odds of winning a championship.
Bill Guerin will have excuses ready if the Wild lose in the first round again. He’ll complain about the playoff format and argue the semantics of advancing to the second round. He’ll talk up how he can build around Hughes, who might be playing for another team in a year. Guerin will always value “grit” over skill because you can’t quantify grit, and therefore, hold him accountable for losing in the playoffs.
He’s trying to sell Taco Bell in Mexico. Don’t buy it! The Wild are a tasty snack, but mostly empty calories; a nice complement to a Mich Golden on a cold winter’s night. But they’re not a contender, and they haven’t ever been under Guerin’s watch.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we’ll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.