The Dallas Stars are now in the position of needing to make history or they are history. Three straight losses against the Edmonton Oilers have put them on the brink of elimination with a 3-1 series deficit. Overcoming a 3-1 hole in this series is a tall task as the Stars are 0-16 in these situations. The Stars’ offense is snake bit as they cannot put pucks past Stuart Skinner over a disastrous three-game stretch. Any team facing a 3-1 series deficit has an approximately 9% chance of winning. The offense has completely fallen apart, being outscored 13-2 over the last three games. Stars fans are frustrated at the lack of production from the Stars. 3-1 series comebacks are rare but not impossible as the Stars have a mountain to climb to get out of this one.
History of the 3-1 Comeback
The Stars have an approximately 9% chance of taking this series in 7. Teams with a 3-1 series lead are 325-32, winning Game 5 55.4% of the time. Teams that start at home are 15-114, just shy of a 12% chance. Any odds of a comeback are against the Stars but it has happened before. The only team to ever overcome a 3-1 deficit in the Conference Final defeated the Stars for the Stanley Cup. The 2000 New Jersey Devils trailed the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference Final 3-1 before winning the series in seven games, moving on to win the Stanley Cup. The Devils won the first home game before dropping the next three, just like the Stars. Pete DeBoer also has a history with these comebacks. DeBoer’s San Jose Sharks won Game 1 at home before conceding the next three. The Sharks won that series in Game 7 at home in overtime. All the cards are stacked against the Stars with a tough Oilers team ahead of them. The Stars are 0-16 with a 3-1 series deficit while the Oilers are 17-1 with the lead. They’ll make history by either becoming the first Stars team to win a series down 3-1 or the first team to lose three consecutive Conference Final appearances.
Running Out of Gas
Chasing hockey often leads to losing hockey. The Stars have trailed in every game in the Western Conference Final. Playing without the lead is not a new situation for them as the Stars played their 17th game of the playoffs in Game 4, scoring the first goal 3/17 times. More instances of being outmatched are prevalent. Physical hockey games this deep in the playoffs are certain. Being dead last in hits per 60 minutes is one of the many things going wrong. Their 29.92 hits per 60 minutes means physicality is running on empty, being outhit 46-23 in Game 4. Looking gassed every shift over the last three games is allowing the Oilers to pounce all over them. Scoring 2 goals over a three-game losing streak will sink almost any team in the playoffs. The Winnipeg Jets still have 74 more hits than the Stars despite playing four fewer games. Only one player on the roster scoring over two games in Edmonton docked the boat of playoff hopes. Jason Robertson put the Stars on the board in both games but the rest of the offense is missing.
Offense Fizzles
It’s not like the opportunities have escaped them in Edmonton. The Stars broke out of the gate with 16 shots over the first period in Game 4. Barely anything is going in. Penalties also do not help and two are causing many. Mason Marchment and Jamie Benn combined for 15 minor penalties so far this postseason. These penalties are killing momentum because the Oilers are scoring at will on them. Depth scoring is so important in the playoffs. Only four Stars players have double-digit points. The offense cannot die like this at the most crucial part of the season. Stuart Skinner gained confidence with shutouts in three of four games over the Golden Knights and Stars. Getting to him is important for any inkling of a chance in this series. Get pucks and bodies to the net and take his eye on the play away from him. Depth players must show up for every remaining game as the Stars will face elimination for the rest of the Conference Final.
Stars fans know this season is close to being over. The confidence around this team and fanbase looks defeated after a Game 4 loss. Stanley Cup Champions must overcome adversity to get there. The 2014 Los Angeles Kings and 2013 Chicago Blackhawks had to overcome 3-1 deficits, albeit the Kings overcame a 3-0 hole. This Oilers franchise also had to overcome a 3-1 deficit over the Jets to win their last Stanley Cup in 1990. The Florida Panthers are waiting on the winner of this series while the Stars are looking to keep them waiting longer. Just take this one game at a time. Game 5 is a must-win and in front of the American Airlines Center crowd for perhaps the final time this season.
Photo Credit: Dallas Stars X
