Okay, count me among those who had completely written off the Ottawa Senators months ago. Anyone who goes back and reads anything I’ve written on the site this season will quickly point out how badly I missed the mark. And I absolutely love to eat crow in moments like this. Even if the Sens don’t complete this miracle comeback (and goddamnit they might just do it!) they can still end the season with a perfectly respectable record that changes our offseason discussions altogether. Travis Green has gotten the whole roster to buy in defensively, Linus Ullmark has played like a franchise goalie of late, and the star players have played up to their standards (particularly in the face of so many significant injuries on defence). Now they just need to keep it up for eleven more game. Can you dig it?
Pittsburgh meanwhile has started heading in the opposite direction. They still find themselves in the mix in a much weaker division, sandwiched between the Blue Jackets and Islanders (seriously what is up with that weird-ass division this year?). Pittsburgh has two regulation wins in their last ten games and most recently lost 6-2 against the mighty Avalanche. Ottawa currently leads the season series against Pittsburgh 2-0 by a combined score of 7-2. Checking in with our old friend moneypuck, this game basically represents a 20% swing in playoff probability for both teams in the event of a regulation finish. No pressure though. Boston won against Buffalo last night which kinda sucks but more importantly, Buffalo can avenge said loss against Detroit tomorrow. And the aforementioned Jackets and Isles play tonight as well (against Montreal and Dallas respectively) so the Penguins can act like they don’t care about the out-of-town scoreboard but we know the truth. Look for Ullmark in net tonight.
Game Notes:
Pittsburgh has legit five-on-five offence (2.89 xGF/60) and a slight edge over Ottawa (2.79). While defensively (Ottawa’s injuries noted) the Sens (2.28 xGA/60) have better numbers than Pittsburgh (2.74) at five-on-five.Ottawa will probably want to avoid taking penalties given the obvious absences on defence and because Pittsburgh still runs a pretty effective powerplay (9.11 xGF/60) thanks to the talent at the top of their lineup (compared to Ottawa’s more pedestrian 8.33 on the powerplay).Pittsburgh also kills penalties much more effectively than Ottawa (they have a pronounced advantage in shorthanded goaltending whereas five-on-five both teams stack up similarly) at 7.24 xGA/60 while Ottawa when healthy rocks an exceptional penalty kill (6.91) injuries and goaltending notwithstanding.In terms of special teams, Pittsburgh doesn’t play as scrappy of a game as Ottawa and I don’t see them deviating from the plot. I also don’t see it as coincidental that Erik Karlsson has enjoyed a bounce-back campaign in terms of point production with the Penguins having so much luck on the powerplay.Speaking of luck, I would attribute the relative success of both of these teams to their shooting luck (talent?) especially when you look at the Penguins’ underwhelming roster on paper. We can really only hope that Ottawa continues to enjoy timely scoring while the Penguins continue their downward spiral into oblivion.
Injuries:
Ottawa: Thomas Chabot, Dennis Gilbert, Nick Jensen, Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson
Pittsburgh: Filip Hallander, Peyton Kettles, Blake Lizotte, Evgeni Malkin, Jack St. Ivany
Where to watch/listen: RDS2, TSN5, TSN1200 @ 7PM EST
Lines from last game:
Ottawa Senators
Giroux – Stützle – Batherson
Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig
Cousins – Pinto – Amadio
Foegele – Eller – Zetterlund
Kleven – Zub
Matinpalo – Spence
Donovan – Yakemchuk
Pittsburgh Penguins
Rust – Crosby – Rakell
Mantha – Novak – Chinakhov
Koivunen – Kindel – Brazeau
Soderblom – Dewar – Acciari
Wotherspoon – Karlsson
Girard – Letang
Shea – Clifton