The Tampa Bay Lightning (44-21-6) host the Ottawa Senators (38-24-10) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, March 28 at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with both teams heading into the game following a loss. The Lightning fell to the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in overtime in their last game, while the Senators are coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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Before this matchup, here’s who we predict to secure the win in Saturday’s hockey action.

In the past 10 contests, the Senators are 7-2-1 while putting up 30 goals against 19 goals conceded. On 34 power-play opportunities during that span, they have scored seven goals (20.6%).

Lightning vs. Senators Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this game predicts a final result of Lightning 4, Senators 2.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-176)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.1 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning have gone 9-6-15 in overtime games on their way to an overall record of 44-21-6.
In the 21 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 8-9-4 record (good for 20 points).
The seven times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
Tampa Bay has scored two goals in 15 games this season (4-8-3 record, 11 points).
The Lightning are 38-7-2 in the 47 games when they have scored at least three goals (to register 78 points).
In the 26 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a single power-play goal, it picked up 35 points after finishing 16-7-3.
In the 40 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 24-11-5 (53 points).
The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 29 times, and went 18-10-1 (37 points).
Senators Splits and Trends

The Senators have a 38-24-10 record this season and are 6-10-16 in contests that have needed overtime.
In the 32 games Ottawa has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 35 points.
This season the Senators recorded only one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
Ottawa has earned 16 points (6-6-4 record) this season when scoring two goals .
The Senators have scored more than two goals in 46 games, earning 69 points from those contests.
This season, Ottawa has recorded a single power-play goal in 26 games and registered 35 points with a record of 15-6-5.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Ottawa has posted a record of 30-15-3 (63 points).
The Senators have been outshot by opponents in 21 games, going 7-7-7 to record 21 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel

When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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