The Tampa Bay Lightning (44-21-6) square off against the Ottawa Senators (38-24-10) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, March 28 at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with both teams heading into the game following a loss. The Lightning fell to the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in overtime in their most recent outing, while the Senators are coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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Prepare for this matchup by checking out our pick for who will emerge with the victory in Saturday’s hockey action.

Over the past 10 games, the Senators have recorded a 7-2-1 record after putting up 30 total goals (seven power-play goals on 34 power-play opportunities during that time, for a conversion rate of 20.6%). Their opponents have scored a combined 19 goals in those games.

Lightning vs. Senators Predictions for Saturday

Our computer model for this contest calls for a final tally of Lightning 4, Senators 2.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-170)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.1 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning have a 44-21-6 record overall, with a 9-6-15 record in contests that have gone to overtime.
Tampa Bay has 20 points (8-9-4) in the 21 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
In the seven games this season the Lightning scored only one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
Tampa Bay has scored two goals in 15 games this season (4-8-3 record, 11 points).
The Lightning have scored three or more goals 47 times, and are 38-7-2 in those games (to record 78 points).
In the 26 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it went 16-7-3 to record 35 points.
In the 40 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 24-11-5 (53 points).
The Lightning’s opponents have had more shots in 29 games. The Lightning went 18-10-1 in those matchups (37 points).
Senators Splits and Trends

The Senators have a record of 38-24-10 this season and are 6-10-16 in overtime contests.
Ottawa has earned 35 points (13-10-9) in its 32 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
This season the Senators registered just one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
Ottawa has 16 points (6-6-4) when scoring exactly two goals this season.
The Senators have earned 69 points in their 46 games with at least three goals scored.
This season, Ottawa has capitalized on a lone power-play goal in 26 games has a record of 15-6-5 in those matchups.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Ottawa has posted a record of 30-15-3 (63 points).
The Senators have been outshot by opponents 21 times this season, and earned 21 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel

When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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