Alarms should be going off for the Blue Jackets after a troubling 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks on March 28 at Nationwide Arena, their second straight defeat and third regulation loss in their past four games.
More: Columbus Blue Jackets can’t convert vs Montreal Canadiens: Takeaways
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After climbing into second place of the Metropolitan Division with win March 24 in Philadelphia, the Blue Jackets are now clinging to the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with nine games left and a tough back-to-back finale on tap March 29 against the Boston Bruins.
The Jackets are stuck on 87 points but kept their grip on the second wild card thanks to losses March 28 by the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings. The New York Islanders (89 points) are now second in the Metro, one point up on the Pittsburgh Penguins (88 points).
Simulation models used by MoneyPuck and The Athletic still gives the Blue Jackets a solid chance of reaching the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, but the percentage has gotten a significant haircut with their last two losses to the Montreal Canadiens and Sharks. Odds given by sports betting services have also dropped for Columbus making the postseason.
Here’s a closer look:
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Nash Sadler, 8, of Ontario reacts after Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner (38) skated up to him before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Nash Sadler, 8, of Ontario reacts after Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner (38) skated up to him before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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A fan receives a free bucket hat before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Bucket hats sit on a table for fans before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Fans walk into the stadium with their bucket hats before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Fans take a photo with the cannon before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Fans watch the Columbus Blue Jackets warm up before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner (38) interacts with fans before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Fans and family members watch the Columbus Blue Jackets warm up before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
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A fan receives a free bucket hat before the NHL game against the San Jose Sharks at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
According to MoneyPuck, an NHL projections and statistics site, the Blue Jackets now have 62.7% chance of making the playoffs, which had already dropped from 87.1% on March 26 to 77.9% going into the San Jose loss. Losing to the Sharks without gaining a point also dropped Columbus’ chances of advancing to the second round from 45.9% to 36.1%, a dip of 9.8% from March 28.
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MoneyPuck generates its percentages by running simulations of the remaining NHL schedule 100,000 times. The Athletic‘a model simulates the remaining NHL schedule 50,000 times, and its most recent projection March 28 gave the Blue Jackets and 82% to join the playoff field. That was before the loss to the Sharks.
MoneyPuck now projects the Blue Jackets to finish with 97.4 points, down from 98.8, while The Athletic sees Columbus finishing with 98.8 points. MoneyPuck has also dropped the Jackets’ chance to win the Stanley Cup from 4.3%, while The Athletic model still spits out a 4% chance for Columbus to win it all.
Fans cheer as Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner (38) battles for position with Kraken defenseman Ryker Evans (41) on March 21. The Blue Jackets won 5-2
The Blue Jackets are still favored to make the playoffs with sports betting sites, but those odds have lessened after after past two games. FanDuel gives them -165 odds to make it and +260 to miss, significant moves for each number, while DraftKings has its odds set at -140 to make it and +120 to miss. BetMGM isn’t listing odds to make the playoffs, but gives the Blue Jackets its seventh-best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +1,800.
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The Blue Jackets have three games left against teams they’re competing with for a playoff spot, including March 19 and April 12 against the Boston Bruins (88 points). The Jackets also play the Detroit Red Wings (84 points) on April 7 at Little Caesars Arena.
The Bruins hold the East’s first wild card, the Jackets own the second and the Red Wings are outside the cutoff.
Here’s a look at how things are going in the Blue Jackets’ final 20 games:
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Blue Jackets reporter Brian Hedger can be reached at bhedger@dispatch.com and @BrianHedger.bsky.social
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Columbus Blue Jackets playoff tracker: Time to worry?