The Abbotsford Canucks’ strong 2024-25 season has brought some much-needed buzz to the Canucks’ brand.
For the organization’s youngsters to finish on a high note is certainly a good thing, especially after the NHL squad crashed and burned, failing to follow up on a strong season last year.
The story is well-understood now: a first-year head coach in Manny Malhotra guiding a reasonably experienced roster with a smattering of youngsters in the mix to a strong regular-season finish — including a 13-game winning streak — and then an impressive run in the playoffs.
Arturs Silovs in the net for the Abbotsford Canucks playoff run. Photos: Abbotsford Canucks
And in that very sentence is a reminder of what the American Hockey League is all about — a league that is mostly filled with players who have reached the height of their potential, with a few players who still hold big-league ambitions and then a couple others who may yet prove to be late-bloomers.
Star prospects generally don’t linger in the A. That’s a premise that is also well-understood. If a prospect is good enough to play in the NHL, even if they are still a little flawed, the data has shown that those prospects do turn out better in the big picture than players who, as hockey folks like to say, “marinate” in the minors.
A 2021 study by hockey analyst Patrick Bacon found that prospects who spend a season in the NHL “developing” end up better players in the long run vs. players who spend a development year in the AHL. That’s not really a knock against the AHL, just a reminder of where the best players are — they are not in the minors, they’re in the show.
But your minor league squad still has use. Not every player on your NHL roster is a star, for instance. You need to find grinders, depth defencemen and goalies. And that’s what your minor league squad is for.
There’s a proven correlation between AHL teams that have strong goals for/against differential and the strength of the NHL team a couple seasons later. Abbotsford, for the record, were plus-35 this past season.
Strong AHL teams are almost always powered by veterans — but because of how AHL roster rules work, those teams are also getting contributions from young players. Ergo, if your team is playing well, it’s because you have a solid lineup and that solid lineup has a good number of young players playing well.
Take the 2022-23 Hershey Bears, who won the Calder Cup, as an example. They finished second in their division in the regular season but had one of the best goal differentials in the league at +34.
When you look at their roster, though, you can see why they were so competent. Their top four scorers were all veterans. Only one, Michael Sgarbossa, is a name you might even be remote familiar with.
But you go down the list and you see Connor McMichael, who was a key top-six forward for the Washington Capitals, Hershey’s NHL parent club, this past season. It was his second strong AHL season — two minor leagues seasons squashed around a full NHL season in 2021-22.
He got a tasted of the NHL, but clearly that season back in the minors proved to be a finishing school for him. He’s a best-case scenario here.
The 2021-22 Stockton Heat might prove a more useful example. That season they were +57 in goal differential. That year’s roster was relatively young, but the top scorers — Matthew Phillips, Jakob Pelletier and Glenn Gawdin — have struggled to make an impact in the NHL.
You have to go down the list to the team’s youngest players to find the guys who are now making an impact in the NHL for the Flames: You see Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, as well as Dustin Wolf.
Both those forwards played important roles this season for the Flames: the team still hopes Zary will pan out as a top-six winger, though he’s already a very competent third-line two way player. Pospisil has been a physical force on the wing, though his lack of scoring touch is notable. Still, he’s exactly the kind of guy you hope your minor league program will graduate to the NHL.
And in the end, with these Abbotsford Canucks, it’s the Pospisil type that the NHL Canucks are most likely to get out of their current AHL crop.
The AHL team did help Elias Junior Pettersson progress into an NHL regular. He’s probably this season’s best-case development scenario. Jonathan Lekkerimäki has had an uneven season, but still showed with his scoring hands that he’s going to be at least able to score in the show.
Vancouver Canucks defenseman Elias N. Pettersson (25) takes control of the puck in front of Dallas Stars’ Wyatt Johnston, rear, April 8, 2025.
But it’s the trio of Arshdeep Bains, Linus Karlsson and Aatu Räty that are the most likely to come out of this year’s AHL roster and make any difference in the AHL. Räty could very well become the NHL team’s third-line centre, while both Karlsson and Bains showed flashes at time this season of being effective fourth liners.
Even if these guys aren’t going to be stars, being able to produce your own depth players — consistently, year in, year out — means you’re not chasing after free agents, where you could potentially overpay in a roster area you really shouldn’t overpay.