Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the slate of games and give in depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features a Pacific Division matchup as the Anaheim Ducks visit the San Jose Sharks. With Anaheim looking to stabilize its play ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and San Jose pushing to stay relevant in the race, this game carries clear implications. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as we continue tracking the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs San Jose Sharks

2025–26 Season Series: Tied 1–1

Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT); 3:00 p. m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)

How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max; Canada TV: SN+

Location: SAP Center, San Jose, California

Setting the Stage

Anaheim enters at 41–28–5, while San Jose sits at 34–31–7 in what projects as a tighter matchup than the standings suggest. Importantly, the Ducks remain atop the Pacific Division, but their margin has begun to shrink following a frustrating loss that exposed familiar defensive issues. Meanwhile, the Sharks continue to hover around the playoff conversation, operating with a more volatile but dangerous offensive profile.

Credit Image: © David McIntyre/ZUMA Press Wire

Furthermore, this matchup presents a stylistic contrast. Anaheim drives play territorially, consistently controlling shot share at five-on-five. However, San Jose thrives in chaos, relying on transition and opportunistic scoring to generate offence. As a result, the game script will hinge on whether the Ducks can impose structure or whether the Sharks can open the game up.

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim’s underlying profile remains strong. The Ducks control over 51 percent of shot attempts at five-on-five, reflecting a legitimate ability to dictate possession. Meanwhile, their depth continues to drive offence, with contributions spread across multiple lines rather than concentrated in one unit.

However, results have not always matched process. The Ducks sit closer to break-even in expected goals, and their goal differential lags behind their territorial advantage. As a result, games often remain closer than expected, particularly against teams willing to trade chances.

Additionally, John Carlson continues to play a central role in Anaheim’s offence, contributing heavily in transition and on the power play. Leo Carlsson remains a key driver at even strength, while Cutter Gauthier provides high-end shot generation when healthy. If Anaheim sustains pressure and limits defensive breakdowns, it should control the flow of play.

Anaheim goal!Scored by John Carlson with 08:27 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Jackson LaCombe and Beckett Sennecke.Anaheim: 3Toronto: 1#TORvsANA #FlyTogether #LeafsForever

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-31T03:36:58.511423Z

San Jose Sharks Storyline

San Jose enters this matchup with a different identity. The Sharks do not control play at the same level, ranking below league average in most five-on-five possession metrics. However, they remain capable of generating offence through individual skill and opportunistic play.

Meanwhile, Macklin Celebrini continues to drive the offence at an elite level, producing consistently despite the team’s underlying struggles. He is supported by players like Tyler Toffoli and Will Smith, who provide additional finishing and creativity. As a result, San Jose remains dangerous in games that open up.

San Jose goal!Scored by Macklin Celebrini with 00:56 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Nick Leddy and Will Smith.San Jose: 3St. Louis: 2#STLvsSJS #TheFutureIsTeal #stlblues

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-31T02:49:01.601080Z

However, defensive structure remains a concern. The Sharks allow significant shot volume and often struggle to contain sustained offensive zone pressure. If they are forced into extended defensive shifts, the game can tilt quickly.

The Model

The blended model reflects a narrow edge for Anaheim. The in-house model incorporates five-on-five metrics, special teams, projected goaltending, and recent form.

Internally, Anaheim lands in the mid-50 percent range. MoneyPuck aligns closely, projecting the Ducks at approximately 52–53 percent. Meanwhile, HockeyStats presents a near coin-flip projection, reinforcing the idea that this matchup carries more volatility than the standings suggest.

After adjusting for market pricing near a pick’em, fair odds remain close to even. Overall, Anaheim holds a slight edge, but not enough to eliminate risk.

NHL Prediction

This game ultimately comes down to control versus volatility. Anaheim has the stronger underlying profile and should be able to dictate possession over extended stretches. Meanwhile, San Jose’s ability to capitalize on limited chances introduces a layer of unpredictability.

However, the matchup still leans toward Anaheim. The Ducks’ territorial advantage should generate sustained offensive pressure, and over time, that typically translates into results. If they remain disciplined and avoid defensive lapses, they should be able to limit San Jose’s transition opportunities.

Given the model alignment and underlying edge, Anaheim is positioned to win a close but controlled game.

Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (Model Probability: ~54–56%)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 16–15

Prop Bets of the Night

This matchup leans toward involvement-based production rather than pure finishing variance. First, John Carlson to record a point (-150) remains a strong angle. His role on the power play and consistent puck involvement continue to generate reliable opportunities, particularly against a defensive structure that allows sustained pressure.

Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson over 2.5 shots (-115) provides a clean volume-based play. Anaheim’s territorial advantage should translate into offensive zone time, and Carlsson’s role on the top line positions him well to convert that into shot volume.

For a complementary angle, Macklin Celebrini to record over two point (+135) offers value on the opposing side. Despite San Jose’s weaker underlying metrics, Celebrini remains the focal point of their offence and benefits from any high-event game environment.

Together, these plays reflect a game script where Anaheim controls possession, but San Jose generates enough offence to keep the game competitive.

2025–26 Season Betting Record: 37–29 (+9.81 units)

Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.

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Main photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images